pernicious
At the Start
- Joined
- Mar 18, 2016
- Messages
- 54
Nice one gig
Chepstow 2.50
Milan reef 10/1 ppower//skybet/betfred/totesport 11/1 sportsbook
A weak 0-60 over a mile,but there are better stables with lightly raced ones milan reefs only had 5 runs itself and at Leicester over 7fs was 2nd to shovel it on winner won easily and won again next time out but milan reef travelled well enough and still stayed on at finish on soft ground.That race worked out quite well and was a 0-70 the 5th won off 67 next time out, 6th gabriel the devil was runner up in a 0-70 at wolves and the 7th dark blue reversed form with milan reef at bath on their next runs.When they ran at Leicester the ground was very slow,so milan reef might be ground dependant as on quicker ground at bath didn't run to that form hopefully will be soft enough,if it is then could be a negative for the fav.I wouldn't dismiss this one tomorrow either as that 0-70 at Leicester looks goodform especially for a horse just running off 54 there maybe at least a win maybe two through the winter even if grounds not soft enough tomorrow.If ground is slow enough can't really see why this won't be nearer 5/1 with that soft ground form with the fav,betting will be a massive pointer i'd expect it to be great trade on slow ground..
Will try and make a few quid trading backing it all the way down to 7/1,don;t have a good record with this trainer seem to catch a lot of huge drifters hopefully can buck the trend..
KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!Form looked diofferent class,was different classs lagged uop cracking form at Leicester running against slow boats unreal prices again oon betfair,taking all the pl;aces as well amazin hopw they over lpook the punters and back stables instead of form pissed iot!!!
Epsom 4.15
Groor 10/1 365/hills/victor
Am disappointed with groors price thought it would be overlooked and nearer 16/1,maybe a case like milans reef and follow for a couple of runs,the 5yr old was rated 91 in jan running in meydan 2016 after leaving james tate,has regressed and dropped down to just a mark of 75 and joining Mohamed moubarak.Didn't run to badly on debut for stable when 5th in a 0-85 at Donny,then nothing in three starts then an eyecatcher over c/d last time out in a 0-80 in a small field,managed to get stopped 3/4 times in run in that race and would've been a clear 2nd
to fujaira bridge.The ground that day was good maybe gd/sft in places certainly on all known fornm wouldn't want it any slower which it could be.
Will probably have to follow it for a few runs if no show tomorrow,trainers in form though as last runner won,the race looks wide open to me even the rag could run well that's why price is slightly disappointing for horse with downwards profile although again drops down another grade,betting will be interesting..
Harlequin striker has become well handicapped not run in this grade since 2015 off this mark of 75 course record of 1/4/4/1/2 the 2nd was off 83 last season would have to be incvolved if anywhere near best...
9/1 10bet/
Genius
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Was there an ante post bet for ST Ledger gigsy?
Can't see much tomorrow and ground could be anything at these meetings hopefully something better sunday,durectorship nearest finish in 5th was retired after the race..
Musselburugh 6.45
Champion Harbour 5/1 365/victor..
Don't know how champion harbours 0/18 on the turf,sitting on a mark of just 55 is thoroughly exposed and had plenty of racing 18 runs one win on the aw off 59 0/12 on the turf and only three 4ths.It's form has got better with rise in trip and ptobably not coincidentally on going right handed but on stiffer tracks form at Beverley then two very good runs at Carlisle,the two runs at Carlisle were higher grade than tomorrows,3rd in a 0-80 and last time out a 4th in a 0-75.Mussulburughs the right way round but this is over 7fs an easy track hard to make ground up on,may have to wait for idea; conditions back at Carlisle or bevverley will have a small bet on it in this grade if it had been the mile would've been far more confident,there is still a possibility could go off very short though based on recent foprm in this 0-60..
Two older horses willbeme and Jacob black from handicap point of view ridiculously well handicapped will beme a veteran has run one decent race this season and Jacob black been last in most races,that one will be off infront and you couldn't toytally rule out,because this race is diabolical...
9/2 skybet/betfred/hills/corals/10bet/marathonbet
Got my place money and backed it at 1.44 a place so bit of profit,traded odds on as well...
Lingfield 5.25
Duke of north 11/1 skybet/betstars/victor/ppower/sportsbook..
Wasn't going to bother with anything else but as this looks like it could be a decent trade then may as well back it probably will back it down to 8/1 could easily go off 6-7/1 so at least trading wise should get something out of it.If you look at my write up from Epsom on Thursday I did give it a mention in the 0-75 saying even the rag had a chance was 50/1 and finished 4th sio ran well,just two days between runs maybe asking a lot but does have track form two runs a second and a win,the win coming on soft ground that was in a 0-80 in may off 66 only going off 7/2 in far better race than tomorrows.Is running off a 2 pound higher mark tomorrow,has been beaten off these marks and would be highest winning ever mark but in general most races it's run in have been better class,negatives are the two day break and trainer totally out of form although dropping into this 0-70.Arctic flower looks like its improving,was a strange entry at Windsor going off a false price back to fav c/d and on right ground where it's been winning and easily last time it won and alsio backed up by better time than duke of north still looks the one to beat,along with hedging also likes the ground and showing improvement.If all the younger unexposed horses go unbacked then duke of north should be a good trade...
Still 10/1 with hills/victor/betway havn't had to bet lower than that so far,hopefully late money for it..
Not shortened as much as expected but not far off but not surprising as huge asvantage stands side and drawn low,all season on soft ground the rails been avoided topday front runners standside massive advantage been impossioble to get near them,if this had been drawn high would've easily been less than predicted prices still made a tasty 1/4 of a barrow though..been backing it all day at 10/1 and 9/1 laid off at average of 8.8 almost perfect..
Thought i had seen a little angle with ground at brighton being gd/fm last night no rain forecast and now of course completelty changed and the ground will be gd/sft maybe soft,will have the one very small ionterst for me the ground being gd/fm was the angle but books have opened up a bog price so will have a little bet on it even though yesterday would've looked far more interesting..
Brighton 3.10
Bella's venture 20/1 ppower/sportsbook
This race has taken on different complexion now gd/fm last night when I picked out bella's venture very frustratuing but is a massive price on best form but wouldv'ere looked far better bet on faster ground as the race now looks more open most of these like some juice or have run better on it.
The fav miss osierstands out an absolute mile now just the nine runs and last time iout was 3rd in a 0-75 drops in class and gets 2 pound drop,thats far better form than these a case iof transferring its sandown form to brighton obvious pick in a poor 0-65.
Bella's venture 10 race maiden doesn't look reliable last of 10 last time out at Chepstow,previous to that ran 2nd to ocean temptress over tomorrows c/d,a third to many dreams at sailsbury off 61 over 7fs on gd/sft ground in a 0-70 form that's equal to most in tomorrows race.The form I was looking at was when 4th in a 0-75 at Chepstow on faster ground only beaten 1 3/4ls,probably prefers that ground on that form but things have conspired against it again tomorrow and that ground wouldv'ebeen negative for favourite as well.At 20/1 still worth a token bet,but looks one that what will be similar prices on faster ground..Gets to run off just 54 tomorrow,either misses break and shows nothing or runs ok this is only a 0-60 even though think ground is a negative can't see this being bigger than 9-10/1,so decent trade so should be able to make some profit on the race..
Cut to 14/1 still fair enough 14/1 365/skybet/betfred/ppower/totesport/sportsbook/lads/corals/hills/betstars/188/marathonbet
More I watch replays the horse will definitely need to get out on terms,if she does then should could also be good for some inrunning as well,think after 100 yards you will know if you are going to get something in running it's the way the horse likes to run..
Almost perfect backed it akll the way into 10/1 and laid off at 9.6 for a 1/4 of a barrow,got a little bit running on ew as well..