Johnboymcs
Amateur Rider
- Joined
- Apr 30, 2017
- Messages
- 3
thanks gigs, did a £2 combination tricast after your results recently on these and £3400 up definitely owe you a drink
Going to add two others,they appear to have completely changed the forecast for next week as far as I can see now no rain whatsoever at the track,currently the going is desperate there according to clerk of course and more rain this week, but non forecast next week so could have dried out by saturday,so will have a couple of others in the race..
Oh this is us 20/1 hills/sportingbet/betway/ppower
Gabrial 33/1 generally..
Oh this is us was in the above race with Lord glitters finishing 7th on that desperate ground not really the horses ground was 2nd in last years Lincoln going off 7/2 fav off 105 strictly on that form cannot beat lord glitters although will have turnarpund of 5 pound but if its riding a bit quicker than that would be negative against lord glitters.The other main positive has been running in meydan over 7fs and was only march 1st was 3rd for horses rated upto 113 nearest finish,at the moment probably priced up on ground being desperate considering it was 7/2 fav in this last season with fitness on side looks overpriced if ground doesn't ride worse than gd/sft could easily run well..
Similarly Gabrial 4th in Lincoln last year nothing between it and Oh this is us at the weights,plus finished 5th to lord glitters in that race at ascot infront of Oh this is us and last season followed up the Lincoln run with a 2nd to sovereign debt in a group 2 and to same horse again in a group 3 where Oh this is us was just behind in 3rd stopped in run.
He hasn't won for a long time but had loads of decent form last season a mark of 103 is lowest since winning the Lincoln in 2015 off a 100,probably unlikely winner but loads of form and decent mark to run well,he had form on all sorts of ground which is the biggest positive plus he's fit been running on the aw,tracks like lingfield are unlikely to suit but still ran two decent seconds to arcanada over the winter there over a mile.
Lincoln 24th of march
Lord Glitters 14/1 hills/ 12/1 Betway/boyles 11/1 365/sunbets/unibet/188bet/888sport.
With weather being desperate and so much rainfall,plus looking at the forecasts for the next couple of weeks if accurate then the ground looks like being soft at Donny it's speculation relying on a 12 day forecast but not too many days with no rain so looks highly likely and the worse the ground gets the more this horse picks up.He's had twelve lifetime runs,three with new trainer david O'Meara who is at present having a nightmare think he's 0/73 runners in uk one winner abroad,unlucky to win on debut at ascot over 7fs,then just got up at ascot in balomral handicap,turn of foot in that ground was eyecatching especially when winning time was slow by 7.6 seconds so more desperate the better fopr him.
With the possibility that could happen looks a great trading opportunity at worst,still open to improvement could well be a group horse currently rated 107,went off 3/1 fav when winning at ascot and again if soft on the day can't see why it won't be going off 5-6/1 in the Lincoln especially if O'Meara hits a winner or two over the next 12 days..I havn't looked too deeply at race,just horses at front end of market and to me lord glitters looks the one likely to get smashed off the boards if weather persists,already notuiced some prices going as been watching it for the last week, think its worth backing all the way down to 9/1.Absolutely no chance of being double figures if ground is riding with the words soft in it..
Lincoln 24th of march
Lord Glitters 14/1 hills/ 12/1 Betway/boyles 11/1 365/sunbets/unibet/188bet/888sport.
With weather being desperate and so much rainfall,plus looking at the forecasts for the next couple of weeks if accurate then the ground looks like being soft at Donny it's speculation relying on a 12 day forecast but not too many days with no rain so looks highly likely and the worse the ground gets the more this horse picks up.He's had twelve lifetime runs,three with new trainer david O'Meara who is at present having a nightmare think he's 0/73 runners in uk one winner abroad,unlucky to win on debut at ascot over 7fs,then just got up at ascot in balomral handicap,turn of foot in that ground was eyecatching especially when winning time was slow by 7.6 seconds so more desperate the better fopr him.
With the possibility that could happen looks a great trading opportunity at worst,still open to improvement could well be a group horse currently rated 107,went off 3/1 fav when winning at ascot and again if soft on the day can't see why it won't be going off 5-6/1 in the Lincoln especially if O'Meara hits a winner or two over the next 12 days..I havn't looked too deeply at race,just horses at front end of market and to me lord glitters looks the one likely to get smashed off the boards if weather persists,already notuiced some prices going as been watching it for the last week, think its worth backing all the way down to 9/1.Absolutely no chance of being double figures if ground is riding with the words soft in it..
Once again - great knowledge/pick. (Can do nothing about one that's so chucked in) U/L
Royal mile handicap musselburugh
Ayutthaya 6/1 365/sportsbook/ppower/boyles
Ayutthaya a huge colt as 2yr old whatever he did last season should be progressive as 3yr old out of Lope de vega,debut at Hamilton going right handed as musselburugh behind lisaheen castle now rated 94, 3rd i'm improving over 3ls behind and previous experience now rated 86 won by 6ls next time out.On second run at York was 2nd to Elarqam beaten easily and although that was winners debut is already rated 111 after winning a group 3,went to chester a maiden with not much strength in depth making all on heavy ground form wasn't up to much although had book of dreams back in 4th beaten over 5ls recently came out on the aw and won off 83 also entered Saturday.
The following race on the card over same c/d was around 2ls slower,hard to know how reliable times are as was raining between the races but did carry 13 pound more than 74 rated winner gabrial the tiger for older handicappers if those times are relatively accurate then the maiden may have been better than it looked.Obviously looking for bigger prices first time out,but as the colt obviously loves the ground will be slow on saturday,goes right handed looked to have plenty of scope and some of his form has some decent rated horses arpund it then a mark of 86 could be lenient and a sire that priduces big improvers 20% over a mile and eye-catchingly 30% on heavy ground.
Think there are currently 22 entrys would imagine there will be 12/13 maximum on what will be sft/heavy ground,if he has built into huge frame think he will go off a lot shorter than 6/1 even thiough first time out and others with fitness onside,have briefly looked at other runners lots of Johnston horses could be anything but just going on what forecast ground will be I think he will be a decent trading opportunity at worst and in running if he gets a decent draw.He's handled chester well and gone right handed on debut...Haggas has one in there so lightkly raced you are guessing on it,get the feeling haggas and ryans horse will dominate the betting and be 3/1 shots on the day..
Southwell 2.05
Arcane dancer 20/1 sportsbook/ppower 18/1 corals 16/1 skybet/hills/betway/lads/totesport/betfred
Unnoticed is going to win oneday really in this grade should be winning more races just finds ways to get beat,never run in this grade before but only win was back in 2014 on 3rd ever run a strange horse as has ability to dot up in one of these..but notoriously difficult to win with.
Arcane dancer tomorrow seasonal debut off 160 days,only 5 but has run 40 times already 4 wins,has a track record of 4/1/4/3/5/4/4 last run here was poorest behind limerick lord one of tomorrows fav,but all other previous form at track was probably better was 4th to stosur in a 0-80 over the mile at the track but those runs were way back in December 2016 and that last poor run jan 2017.Returned to the flat after 116 days off and ran 2nd off 59 at Beverley may 2017 seems to like that track that was in a 0-70,followed that up with a 4th and 2nd again at Beverley then two runs later won at Beverley off 60 in a 0-65.
After that first time run in hps it never worked again and horse lost consistency,showed very little reverted back to pieces and then tried blinkers at end of season.Those poor runs have got it down to a mark of 57 two pound above its lowest since November 2015 when winning at swell over a mile in a 0-60,maybe out for run then heading to Beverley infact that's a certainty looking at its form but if fit and stable think they have it spot on then could run well although maybe the 7fs is on short side.Looks like one of those that could go off 33s or 6-7/1 on most of its form early last season would be at head of market,trainer doesn't have many winners but had one recently and Cameron hardie hasn't rode the horse since the long lay off when 2nd.His record on the horse is 2/3/4/2/1...betting will be interesting..
Lingfield 4.15
Clement 20/1 365 16/1 sportsbook/ppower
Will have a token bet on Clement,ran a really good race over this c/d in a claimer beaten 3ls off level weights with horses rated in the mid 70s and 80s and in a decent time back in feb,hasn't shown anything l;ike that form since but it's usually due to lack of pace makes him look very slow if no gallop,was dropped in class last time and still struggled back up in class tomorrow.Has now dropped to a mark of 61,last time ran off this mark won by 5ls,probably relying on tavener going off quick with something else and that's not guaranteed as tavener ran this afternoon just won so that would lessen chances anyway,worth a small bet off this mark..always find the betting interesting on this horse as keeps drifting like a barge by the off..Maybe horse has become to difficult to trust as always gets left but would like to see a fast run race to see if can back up that earlier lingfield run.Really should be a decent trade at these prices all firms going 16/1,but as mentioned has drifted numerous times although may still trade quite well tomorrow at these prices.
20/1 victor..16/1 hills/marathonbet/totesport/betfred/betway/corals/sunbets..
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Will have a small ew multiple as well was looking for better prices on these really..
Southwell 3.25
Showboating 7/1 365
Showboatings in right grade now but there maybe one or two that could still be impriving especiallykyllachys tale hacked up here by 7ls when lowly rated but went onto the turf and won a better class race so could be more to come on this surface.Showboating I put up at 25/1 last season in this grade in the march,sp was 7/1 so not much in price tomorrow back against some unexposed horses,he's another that will be relying on them coming back and could run well but unexposed horses to beat..
Kempton 8.45
Bird for life 2/1 365
Bird for life keeps contesting these low grade races over 1m4fs at Kempton race taken away last time out on reversal of photograph,can hardly say there's much value in pruce beaten in this grade several times again looks pace dependant,last time out was upped in class into a 0-60 the time was very good for the grade so the horse is potentially better than mark if they go quick enough.Problem with these 1m4fs races around Kempton 90% of them are run at a crawl,it looks like the horse even thiogh looking exposed when getting right conditions is going to win more races off mark still in low 50s,off 51 tomorrow.
9.15
Spirit of edinburugh 8/1 skybet/ppower/sportsbook/totesport/betfred/marathinbet/ 9/1 victor/365
Spirit of edinburugh was 4th in the above race with bird for life as said was run in a very good time and although beaten over 5 1/4ls was still 2 seconds quicker than the 2nd division,again it looks like if they go quick enough then spirit of edinburugh is better than current mark of just 49,got dropped 2 pound for that run and was in first time tps.Would keep these two runners in notebook if races are run at a crawl as they look capable of better off current marks,but their running styles out the back they need a decent pace..
Lingfield 4.15
Clement 20/1 365 16/1 sportsbook/ppower
Will have a token bet on Clement,ran a really good race over this c/d in a claimer beaten 3ls off level weights with horses rated in the mid 70s and 80s and in a decent time back in feb,hasn't shown anything l;ike that form since but it's usually due to lack of pace makes him look very slow if no gallop,was dropped in class last time and still struggled back up in class tomorrow.Has now dropped to a mark of 61,last time ran off this mark won by 5ls,probably relying on tavener going off quick with something else and that's not guaranteed as tavener ran this afternoon just won so that would lessen chances anyway,worth a small bet off this mark..always find the betting interesting on this horse as keeps drifting like a barge by the off..Maybe horse has become to difficult to trust as always gets left but would like to see a fast run race to see if can back up that earlier lingfield run.Really should be a decent trade at these prices all firms going 16/1,but as mentioned has drifted numerous times although may still trade quite well tomorrow at these prices.
20/1 victor..16/1 hills/marathonbet/totesport/betfred/betway/corals/sunbets..
Will have a small ew multiple as well was looking for better prices on these really..
Southwell 3.25
Showboating 7/1 365
Showboatings in right grade now but there maybe one or two that could still be impriving especiallykyllachys tale hacked up here by 7ls when lowly rated but went onto the turf and won a better class race so could be more to come on this surface.Showboating I put up at 25/1 last season in this grade in the march,sp was 7/1 so not much in price tomorrow back against some unexposed horses,he's another that will be relying on them coming back and could run well but unexposed horses to beat..
Kempton 8.45
Bird for life 2/1 365
Bird for life keeps contesting these low grade races over 1m4fs at Kempton race taken away last time out on reversal of photograph,can hardly say there's much value in pruce beaten in this grade several times again looks pace dependant,last time out was upped in class into a 0-60 the time was very good for the grade so the horse is potentially better than mark if they go quick enough.Problem with these 1m4fs races around Kempton 90% of them are run at a crawl,it looks like the horse even thiogh looking exposed when getting right conditions is going to win more races off mark still in low 50s,off 51 tomorrow.
KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!! Another dawdle round almost cost it,worth keeping this for future races very small rise race was 4 seconds slower than its last run..
9.15
Spirit of edinburugh 8/1 skybet/ppower/sportsbook/totesport/betfred/marathinbet/ 9/1 victor/365
Spirit of edinburugh was 4th in the above race with bird for life as said was run in a very good time and although beaten over 5 1/4ls was still 2 seconds quicker than the 2nd division,again it looks like if they go quick enough then spirit of edinburugh is better than current mark of just 49,got dropped 2 pound for that run and was in first time tps.Would keep these two runners in notebook if races are run at a crawl as they look capable of better off current marks,but their running styles out the back they need a decent pace..