Daily picks.

What a bloke ������������������������������
 
Best judge of a horse ever I reckon
Brilliant Andy, we are all very fortunate to have you post on here.

Can’t thank you enough

Jason


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Not been on Moi Aussie for a long while and would have easily dismissed it for one reason or another - cheers for making me look twice, superb pick !

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Thirsk 6.10

Extrasolar 6/1 sportsbook/ppower 11/2/skybet/10bet/betway/sportpesa 365 / Round the island 16/1 365/sportsbook/ppower 14/1 sportpesa/10bet 12/1 totesport/betfred/hills/victor/sunbets/

Extrasolar won me a few quid just a few days ago,although was disqualified after hanging left and winning a nose,hadn't won since 2015 and think was laid out for the veterans race looked non trier at Beverley so they probably had a touch with books anyway,in theory this should be easier drops into a 0-65 two grades lower from that 0-75 aren't many in here that would be capable of running to that form even at best..He really looks like he could go off very short so there's some decent trading in there,presuming he's trying and recovered from the race on the 14th,obviously he rarely wins so might bomb out completely and hang ledt as he did at catterick,not one to trust but in this grade he should be heavily backed and may go off nearer to 9/4-5/2.
There are a few in here that if coming back to form could run to the same level but it's a bit of a guessing game, although lot lower marks not many have shown anything lately,the other most interesting one in the race is Round The Island of Richard whittakers,hasn't shown anything lately and the biggest negative trainer completely out of form although has only had eight runners this season.Round the island showed its best ever form last season,winning off 61 at ponte winning easily going off fav in a 0-70 and followed that up with a third over this c/d off 69 in a 0-85 on gd/fm ground,that day he went off 2/1 fav on that form would be clear fav in this weak race also later in season ran 5th over 7fs at thirsk in a 0-80,tomorrow races off 64 and with lewsis Edmunds taking off another three to 61 and won second race back last season this is second race back since november..Since that run in September has shown nothing on the aw in weaker races although regular jock lewis Edmunds rides,hasn't rode him last three runs..Any of it's form from last years best turf runs you'd expect it to be smashed off the boards,am sure confidence or lack of it will be in betting in this grade,if stabl;e think they have him right would have to be backed.Looks one to follow off a decent mark especially with unfashionable trainer as at some point will pop up at a decdent price..I would say if this isn't aropund the 5-6/1 mark on exchanges by the off it's probably not going to show as this race is poorer than most of last seasons turf form and its c/d form is decent as well.
The Appleby horse Tan won at swell on debut for stable was generally running in better races than this on turf off marks in high 60s to high 70s became disappointing but now with stable capab;le of brininging it back to form or maybe improving it..Has no form on fast ground,but run well on good ground the biggest ? is the draw on farside in 1,historically a bad draw on fast ground but in recent times even on quicker ground there has been little in at some of the meetings including last season on very fast ground.Could easily figure if that's not a disadvantage..


Had other things marked off but prices were a lot shorter than expected,they seem to be chucking the water on at Newmarket and newbury so those meetings are a waste of time so probably just this race for me,obviously looks impossible but only race I could find an angle on prices..
 
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gigilo said:
Thirsk 6.10

Extrasolar 6/1 sportsbook/ppower 11/2/skybet/10bet/betway/sportpesa 365 / Round the island 16/1 365/sportsbook/ppower 14/1 sportpesa/10bet 12/1 totesport/betfred/hills/victor/sunbets/

Extrasolar won me a few quid just a few days ago,although was disqualified after hanging left and winning a nose,hadn't won since 2015 and think was laid out for the veterans race looked non trier at Beverley so they probably had a touch with books anyway,in theory this should be easier drops into a 0-65 two grades lower from that 0-75 aren't many in here that would be capable of running to that form even at best..He really looks like he could go off very short so there's some decent trading in there,presuming he's trying and recovered from the race on the 14th,obviously he rarely wins so might bomb out completely and hang ledt as he did at catterick,not one to trust but in this grade he should be heavily backed and may go off nearer to 9/4-5/2.
There are a few in here that if coming back to form could run to the same level but it's a bit of a guessing game, although lot lower marks not many have shown anything lately,the other most interesting one in the race is Round The Island of Richard whittakers,hasn't shown anything lately and the biggest negative trainer completely out of form although has only had eight runners this season.Round the island showed its best ever form last season,winning off 61 at ponte winning easily going off fav in a 0-70 and followed that up with a third over this c/d off 69 in a 0-85 on gd/fm ground,that day he went off 2/1 fav on that form would be clear fav in this weak race also later in season ran 5th over 7fs at thirsk in a 0-80,tomorrow races off 64 and with lewsis Edmunds taking off another three to 61 and won second race back last season this is second race back since november..Since that run in September has shown nothing on the aw in weaker races although regular jock lewis Edmunds rides,hasn't rode him last three runs..Any of it's form from last years best turf runs you'd expect it to be smashed off the boards,am sure confidence or lack of it will be in betting in this grade,if stabl;e think they have him right would have to be backed.Looks one to follow off a decent mark especially with unfashionable trainer as at some point will pop up at a decdent price..I would say if this isn't aropund the 5-6/1 mark on exchanges by the off it's probably not going to show as this race is poorer than most of last seasons turf form and its c/d form is decent as well.
The Appleby horse Tan won at swell on debut for stable was generally running in better races than this on turf off marks in high 60s to high 70s became disappointing but now with stable capab;le of brininging it back to form or maybe improving it..Has no form on fast ground,but run well on good ground the biggest ? is the draw on farside in 1,historically a bad draw on fast ground but in recent times even on quicker ground there has been little in at some of the meetings including last season on very fast ground.Could easily figure if that's not a disadvantage..

Lovely drift on tan took 12/1:ninja: got titally uignored becauise of draw,as in write upo I checjed the faet ground meeting there recenjtly and they were virtually levelo across the track,hacked up the write ups at the moment just throwing up some cracking drifters and savers even when the priced up picks go down,,think it got hammered just before the off as well..was 5/1 last night couldn't back it at that price from draw..sp 9.36
No real profit on race though as backed extrasolar and the other ew frustrating day as loads of things marked off and quite a few won and they were to follows so mossed the boat..


Had other things marked off but prices were a lot shorter than expected,they seem to be chucking the water on at Newmarket and newbury so those meetings are a waste of time so probably just this race for me,obviously looks impossible but only race I could find an angle on prices..
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Windsor 8.45

Biotic 11/1 ppower/sportsbook


Overwatered ground at Windsor (6.3) on going stick if that doesn't change will be nearer gd/sft good ground they have gd/fm on the Windsor website total rubbish,as long as they l;eave it alone should be nearer good by the off just ridiculous the amount of water putting on from what I can see they just aren't going to let there be fast ground..Biotic the angle was gd/fm ground non in this race really,although is last race on the card so hopefully will be at least good by the end of the card maybe slightly quicker.
BiotIc used to be different class to these and even last season on 2017 turf debut was 3rd off 73 over this c/d then followed that up with another second off 74,even ran a decent fourth off 74 at sailsbury all those races better than this,then switched to the aw shown absolutely nothing four runs and its mark have plummeted to a mark of 61 so is absolutely chucked in on last years Windsor form.If he's fit and if he still retains any of last years ability you'd expect these sort of prices to crash,so that will be obvious pointer if he goes unbacked in just a 0-70 then he will run as his prices suggest.He maybe worth following back here just incase not fit,but even though he has great track form off higher marks he hasn't wion since 2015 althouigh lowest mark since july 2014 when he was a sprinter on the aw..
Could still be a relatively nice trade just can't see how it will be bigger than 5-6/1 in this grade and of retains ability and stable think they have it somewhere near a mark of 70 then could go iff same price as with market leaders..

11/1 coral 9/1 unibet 17/2 totesport/btfred 8/1 lads


7/1 hills/betway

Just 13/2 left now 365/marathonbet/sportsbook/ppower/unibet/victor...hopefully you can still still get free bet out of that price.

Into 5/1,as I said would be decent trade although it now looks like heavy rain around 5mm says thunderstorm which is why essenaitch has been heavily backed into fav likes softer ground,betting copuld completely change on biotic if that rain arrives in evening..
 
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gigilo said:
The Coventry

Sergei Prokofiev 11/2 365 5/1 corals/lads

Hardly anything to go on yet very little seen from 2yr olds,i usually wait a bit longer for something that's run on faster ground before having a bet
and this may only be my second or third fancy come race time but just as it's looked the best so far and the race isn't that far off if you get a poor bunch running upti meeting then you might emd uop with this O'Brien horse being a real shortie.Made debut on the aw came 2nd,then ran at navan
race was run at a decent pace and won by 7 1/2ls showing nice turn of foot,out of scat daddy horses go on any ground but on gd/fm 23% strike rate so opposite ground to what it won on.Probability the ground will be good at ascot or could be gd/fm,also scat daddy with runners there have a 50% strike rate from 23 runners,winning time of the navan race was a second slower than the 5f listed race on the card so not as good as you'd want to see for a Coventry winner but he did win easily and only second run.
I watched the listed race on the card and the result was two rags and the third Washington dc also ran up the middle over 5 3/4ls back to the fourth the rest were on the fsr rail,sergie prokofiev raced on that far rail so looks like that may have been the worst part of the track so maybe even worth upgrading the form would've finished upsides the 4th in the listed race on times.
Of course another four or fibe may come out and prove even better than this the likely hood there will be one better looking runner,but being out of scat daddy and ground being immaterial,makes it unlikely non runner it could imprive further for faster ground and the sires recird at the track plus obvioyusly O'Brien training it,it;s a good starting point.Will almost definitely have something else probavby from the Johnston yard,the Obrien horses last season was murillo and finished third in the race on gd/fm ground also out of scat daddy..
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3/1 tops now ,2/1 some firms still very little to gon although as I said sometimes you just get a weak bunch and so far at least on the clock that's what's happened,a few promising new ones ran this weekend will be having another bet in the Coventry it' not 100% certain he runs yet as O'Brien has the 2nd and 3rd favs as well the irish rover could possibly be the Coventry horse and this one the norfolk...if it does run could go off even a lot shorter yet unless something comes out over the next week..
 
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Windsor - my weather service says light showers between 1 and 6 this afternoon but 23 degrees so cant see it changing the going much
 
Was still worth doing,as long as I think they will shorten I will put them up won a few quid trading today on the race got hammered just before the off into 5.6 think it was as biog as 7/1 today nothong wrong withy ground really looked good ground probably one to give another chance to as they crawled round which wouldn't have suited...as said in write up would be amazed if it was bigger than 5-6/1 sp 4/1,think if it had shown anything at home would've been fav anyway..Might have a few days away from betting and look at the 2yr olds too much racing for me not feeling great and long season ahead.
 
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gigilo said:
Was still worth doing,as long as I think they will shorten I will put them up won a few quid trading today on the race got hammered just before the off into 5.6 think it was as biog as 7/1 today nothong wrong withy ground really looked good ground probably one to give another chance to as they crawled round which wouldn't have suited...as said in write up would be amazed if it was bigger than 5-6/1 sp 4/1,think if it had shown anything at home would've been fav anyway..Might have a few days away from betting and look at the 2yr olds too much racing for me not feeling great and long season ahead.
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Don't be giving up for a few days gigs my picking is terrible with out you. I need you. Keep them coming. Couple of losers is nothing on your record!!!
 
Been doing the same thing for 20 years same hours work from 9am till 3am regardless of health,if I didn't I just wouldn't bother doing anything I need to cover everything,completely shattering this time of year onwards just so much to cover when I have 15-20 picks running in a day I just won't post especially if not three or four stand out at prices and am not going to put up lists of horses..because wouldn't want anyone to have a big losing run.

Lingfield 4.35

Jack black 7/1 35 8/1 ppower/sportsbook 15/2 skybet

Victor 13/2


Jack black don't know if this is just a run out for the summer jumping ,joined brett Johnson last season and the horse raced with loads of enthusiasm and improved hurdling mark last winning in September off 113,horse races from the front but also has a turn of foot as well..Has had six runs on the aw not shown much gets in here on first flat run on turf off 53,new mark of 120 over hurdles could be well handicapped slightly speculative first run back and over 1 m3 1/2 furlongs,a very poor race so interesting to see if he has natural flat speed for this trip..I presume will try and lead,reminds me of another horse that improved last season and won a couple tonto's spirit from hurdling,off just 53 think its worth a small bet,might just need further but from watching its hurdle replays looked to have nice turn of foot in the races it ran in end of 2017 jump season..trainer had winner yesterday.

Same old story non stop rain the angle on the horse was good/fast ground and drifted like a barge since rains have fallen previous form on gd/sdt poor ...thibk it will be no betting days till next week too many ground changes..
 
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gigilo said:
Been doing the same thing for 20 years same hours work from 9am till 3am regardless of health,if I didn't I just wouldn't bother doing anything I need to cover everything,completely shattering this time of year onwards just so much to cover when I have 15-20 picks running in a day I just won't post especially if not three or four stand out at prices and am not going to put up lists of horses..because wouldn't want anyone to have a big losing run.

Lingfield 4.35

Jack black 7/1 35 8/1 ppower/sportsbook 15/2 skybet

Victor 13/2
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Thanks Andy remember health is a priority AtB


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I'd love to see all your picks giggs. People can choose to follow or not nothing to do with you. I enjoy the write ups and your reasoning but generally wouldn't follow unless the price is good.
 
gigilo said:
Been doing the same thing for 20 years same hours work from 9am till 3am regardless of health,if I didn't I just wouldn't bother doing anything I need to cover everything,completely shattering this time of year onwards just so much to cover when I have 15-20 picks running in a day I just won't post especially if not three or four stand out at prices and am not going to put up lists of horses..because wouldn't want anyone to have a big losing run.

Lingfield 4.35

Jack black 7/1 35 8/1 ppower/sportsbook 15/2 skybet

Victor 13/2
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That seems to be working fine for you.
 
I do send out multiples by email to a few that like to play them in pennys but can be 10-15 picks so they have to be split and even to pennys cost bombs,think a few do them on betfair so stakes are split to trouble is you end up on bfsp so could be a 12/1 shot and end up 4/1 that's the drawback even though a plus you can get such tiny stakes on..Might put up another thread and if anyone wants to have a dabble on multiples to these tiny stakes they can have ago,although there won't be any write ups or anything I could still put books prices up,will have a think about it..
 
Royal hunt cup

Hors de combat 50/1 365/lads 60s with lads price boost/corals

Hors de combat seven year old now,but still showing decent standard of ability has already won in meydan off 100 this season in February he hasn't won very often three times but they save him for the ground very lightly raced record is 3/31 is stuck in the low 100s but more often than not runs respectably.He ran in the corresponding race last season was 13/29 but at the two furlong pole got hampered and stopped in run,shuffled back to last five or six and then picked up again to pass maybe eight or nine runners and still finishing strongest at finish.He maybe an unlikely winner lots of new horses in this years race but he could run well as likes the track,the trip and probable ground good or preferably faster,usually goes off nearer 16/1 in these races as last year so three times the price he has been previously infact he's never been bigger than 25/1 in his thirty races.Would be amazed if he's not half these odds by the off or even slightky shorter has already run two nice races in meydan in competitive handicaps for horses rated up to 108 and 115 finishing 1st and 3rd,the prices look big as he's almost a guaranteed runner
 
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