gigilo
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,796
Lots of gueswork at the moment will try a multiple just looking through the cards prices now...form of first one just advertizrd by winner at newbury..in conditions race.
Newbury 4.25
Raise you 5/4 365 11/8 skybet
Runner up to king ottaker on debut last season on very soft ground on this track,king ottaker won the conditions race on todays card at newbury so raise again could well be something at least 90+ maybe a 100 horse,the third ballymelon in last years maiden is now rated 84 and that one had previous experience and was beaten over 3 3/4ls so the form is backed up..Varian and gosden have two well bred types making their debuts and could be anything the latter costing 625,000 but if raise again has imprived the likelyhood is one of thems going to have to run to a 100 on debut..
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Thirsk 5.25
Senza limiti 4/5 365 5/6 skybet/victor/boyles
Senza limitu won its debut run at sailsbury on goodish ground looked one of the fastest races on the card the runner up had solid previous form and is rated 84,won easily as well so similarky to raise you could be looking at at least 90+ horse,the other runners that have experience hard to weugh up there form doesn'yt look as good on what they've done to date..The danger as per could be the sbs horse great example with josephine gordon riding,maybe a forecast with that one.
Newbury 3.15
Escobar 16/1 skybet/ppower/betfred/totesport Humbert 25/1 skybet/hills/victor
Don't really like anything in the springmile was going tp back red starlight as it looked to be running on well at ascot last year over 7fs on sogft ground and last time out stayed on well again behind sharja prince on seasonal debut could well be the one tp beat..Am just going to have a couple of token bets on the o'meara horses, Humberts form even its second in this last year doesn't look good enough this looks a far better race,but as the grounds dead and on slow side it might stop a few of these..Hasn't show anything in last three runs very poor and joined o'meara stable,was beaten a long way in the lincoln but on reasonably quick ground,tomorrow the conditions look similar to last years when second just look a little quicker but still pretty slow ground.
His other runner Escobar doesn't look well handicapped either crept up the weights finished last season with a second to sharja pribce at ascot which looks dubious form as first run on soft ground,so looks out of line with other form all on faster ground.Intersting thing is the siore famous name ran on all sorts of ground gd/fm and soft and was equally as good so there might be a chance escobars run was improvement even though a mark of 103 first time out might be a lot to ask,kirby rides.Ground will be similar tomorrow to the ascot form,speculatuve picjs with one seemingly out of form and the other on seasonal debut so just a couple of token bets..Been looking at the race for ages,was going to back totally different horses or just leave it,have gone against the more recent form horses and hoping the slower ground will stop a few.
Will leave it at that for now,too much guessing on draws on ground so easy to have 10 guesses and no returns might even have a week off to catch up on replays as anythings winning on the turf and the aw finals next friday..
Thirsk 5.55
Meshardal 14/1 365/skybet/victor/betway/marathonbet/titesport/betfred.
Meshardal hasn't won for two seasons now and on downgrade,but stable might still be trying to land a gamble but am not at all convinced will be tomorrow as for some reason last three runs pieces let off and suspiciously not being put back on again..Once pieces were put on only second run it won then ran up a four timer,and previous to that had not won any of iots previous 22 starts so tomorrow tells you on all known recent stars from last four seasons it won't be winning..It does look bvery strange as now it's dropped into a 0-60 first time since october 2013,last season was still running ok in far better races running in 0-85s early season finishing 4th several times and in a big field handicap ar york last season finishing 4th in a 0-80 nine times in first five not beaten far...On those races would proabably be favourite for this race,is drawn 17 tomorrow would normally be a decent draw if the grounds not been watered plus decent c/d reciord 1/2/7/1,the negative as mentioned looks having no pieces on but i still wouldn't be surprised to see it halve in price so coud be nice for trading anyway...and maybe make a nice few quid on race regardless of result.One thing to watch out for is when pieces get put back on though because eve if not as good as once was ruth carr does well with these older horses and in this grade may win a race or two this season now running off just 57 last seaso started off on 74 and all the better runs were in the high 60s..
There are two similar types in the race lucky beggar another that used to be different class and simply can't win but ridiculously well handicapped and even its form last seasson good enough to figure in this
and the maiden danhill desert loads of better form in higher class races simply can't win but again another big drop in class non of these would be a surprise in such a weak race..
Hope you had a saver got 22/1 unreal they were joint favs at one point last 5 mins big drift meshardal,nice trade though meshardal as well as suggested some nice money made pre race always going to get overbet wait for pieces, a very good day wish i'd put it in multies but bet all three...first decent winner io've had so far glad i added it in..:lol: 16s when posted just incase anyone querys prices althouigh im sure anyone reading thread already saw that.Also the 6l maiden winner raise you,very interesting as was only 2ls slower than the spring mile winner carrying a pound more,be interesting to see what mark it gets in future should be a 100..
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