gigilo
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,796
Goodwood Molecombe 3.0 wednesday
Kingboard Star 33/1 sportsbook/ppower/365 28/1 sky/hills 4 places
Ground currently soft have no idea what it could be by wednesday,maybe it could dry out to good will only know looking at tomorrows times am hoping it will be still on the soft side because the sire of Chipotle and Fearby Havana Gold is running around 6% on gd/sft and 4% on soft very very poor stats although once it slips into good the stats go upti 13% so ground might make all the difference.Chipotle won on fast ground at Ascot in the Windsor Castle then got stopped in run in the Supersprint,although Fearby has bucked the stats trend and its win at Sandown n slow going by 5ls it looked a thorough stayer..Impossible to know if that was despite the griund or because of it,if it was because it looks the one to beat if it stays softer..the time it ran was over .54 faster than a class 3 handicap at Sandown that was run the following day on the same griund which would be the best slow ground form in the race..I suspect if it stays on the sift side it will be backed and there's a free bet in there with it currently being 3/1 ppower/sportsbook 11/4 generally..
Kingboard Star looked impressive on debut travelled well on fast ground and looked likely to be a big improver,the 2nd franked the form by running 5th in The Queen Mary Vertiginous beaten just over 4ls, Chipotle won on the same day as The Queen Mary if you took those two races strictly at face value then Kingboard Star would have 4ls to find with it with a 5 pound turnaround,but Kingboard Star could still be better than that form..Kingboard Star flopped on 2nd run finishing 5/8 at Newcastle on the aw a strange entry when you look at the sires stats five runners there 0 wins 0 places so a good reason to ignore the run..
Cotai Glory is a great sire in sprints 23% over 5fs 17% on gd/fm 25% gd/sft 25% soft but only 12% on good,that seems the most likely going to me hopefully it won't be..Also the day Kingboard Star won, the time was very good only 2ls slower than the class 4 for older horses on the card,with normal improvement i'd have the horse well upto a 100 on that form...Only the two favs have ratings that high on wednesday,has a bit to prove now but from a great stable, Ed Walker currently running at 26%,certainly going to look chucked in if doesn't run well in this race for nurseries..
A speculative bet,but still a possibility is getting underestimated..
Rains overnight and the prices collapse on fearby,the sire stats on heavy are exactky the same 2/35 so just 6% but so far only horse thats got decent time on softer ground..
Kingboard Star 33/1 sportsbook/ppower/365 28/1 sky/hills 4 places
Ground currently soft have no idea what it could be by wednesday,maybe it could dry out to good will only know looking at tomorrows times am hoping it will be still on the soft side because the sire of Chipotle and Fearby Havana Gold is running around 6% on gd/sft and 4% on soft very very poor stats although once it slips into good the stats go upti 13% so ground might make all the difference.Chipotle won on fast ground at Ascot in the Windsor Castle then got stopped in run in the Supersprint,although Fearby has bucked the stats trend and its win at Sandown n slow going by 5ls it looked a thorough stayer..Impossible to know if that was despite the griund or because of it,if it was because it looks the one to beat if it stays softer..the time it ran was over .54 faster than a class 3 handicap at Sandown that was run the following day on the same griund which would be the best slow ground form in the race..I suspect if it stays on the sift side it will be backed and there's a free bet in there with it currently being 3/1 ppower/sportsbook 11/4 generally..
Kingboard Star looked impressive on debut travelled well on fast ground and looked likely to be a big improver,the 2nd franked the form by running 5th in The Queen Mary Vertiginous beaten just over 4ls, Chipotle won on the same day as The Queen Mary if you took those two races strictly at face value then Kingboard Star would have 4ls to find with it with a 5 pound turnaround,but Kingboard Star could still be better than that form..Kingboard Star flopped on 2nd run finishing 5/8 at Newcastle on the aw a strange entry when you look at the sires stats five runners there 0 wins 0 places so a good reason to ignore the run..
Cotai Glory is a great sire in sprints 23% over 5fs 17% on gd/fm 25% gd/sft 25% soft but only 12% on good,that seems the most likely going to me hopefully it won't be..Also the day Kingboard Star won, the time was very good only 2ls slower than the class 4 for older horses on the card,with normal improvement i'd have the horse well upto a 100 on that form...Only the two favs have ratings that high on wednesday,has a bit to prove now but from a great stable, Ed Walker currently running at 26%,certainly going to look chucked in if doesn't run well in this race for nurseries..
A speculative bet,but still a possibility is getting underestimated..
Rains overnight and the prices collapse on fearby,the sire stats on heavy are exactky the same 2/35 so just 6% but so far only horse thats got decent time on softer ground..
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