Daily picks.

ubedizzy said:
Very Very Unlucky That
Good Place Bet Though ;)
Cheers
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Yeah evens was decent a place drifted then started to get backed,an unlucky loser loking like hitting one of those ''unlucky'' patches always the same after a winning run..
 
Slow going at the moment especially with all these Newcastle fixtures,hopefully something Friday or Saturday..
 
Desperation stuff today Lingfield 3.10 small bet on miss Mirabeau at 2.8 drifting like a barge saver on place at 1.43 and also allegheney place at 6,0 and 1.9 a place.

Hopefully some better stuff next week..

Nice little race to bet In made some profit on the race they were nailed on for places,almost full house..
 
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14th April 3yr old finals day..

Fastest 7f race ran at lingfield this season,second thoughts on only 3rd ever lifetime run clocking 1m22.10 going away from sutter county at finish there must be loads more to come have been no prices up from any firms but bar the run by kananee over 6fs at Newcastle todays time is miles clear of anything over 7fs this season.Infact looking the most of the best 7f handicaps run here over the last 2/3 seasons non have been quicker,the time was also quicker than haalicks win in the final last season,with likely impriovement to come I can see this going off nearer evens may even be odds on,if you can get a bet on with betway the 2/1 betway are showing will never be bigger...If you can get a bet on its worth taking as I doubt most firms are going to open bigger than 6/4 13/8 you may not even see that...

Second thoughts 2/1 betway..

3/1 Corals 11/4 Lads can't see thesecprices lasting long...
 
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2.40 Wolves

Fleckerls 8/1 ppower/sportsbook 15/2 365

Fleckrls an impossible horse to predict has dropped dramatically in the weights,was rated 91 april 2016 now rated just 70 has shown very little in recent times invariably gets left with too much to do or just shows no interest in racing.Looks like s similar scenario tomorrow with lots of holds up,but as he gave the field 12ls last time out only to be beaten 1 1/2ls then at the prices of 8/1 15/2 he's worth a small bet,that race was run at a decent gallop whixch suited I can't see much pace in this race either but 8/1 is overpriced on that run would imagine will go off nearer to 5/1 maybe even shotrter.Just to put into context the times last time out,pushkin museum ran in the 2nd div that day and the time of that race was a second slower than the race fleckerl ran in same grade that race was run in very good time for grade.There are lots in this race that could run well,too many to mention an ultra competitive race even picket line well handicapped and African blessing looks well handicapped although first time out this season..

ew multiples

Lovely place got 1.8 can't believe the layers for this race was always likely to be running on strongly into 2nd or 3rd at least.,nice profit on the day..
just need that bit of luck to turn it a big day..

4.10

Childesplay is similar to fleckrl was running really well last season,was rated 85 when second over this c/d to apache storm in far better race than this in a very fast time on that form would be fav but since that only decent run has ben a 5th to merhoob off 80.Has come back after a long break in two runs probably something has been amiss,they actually flatter the horse I think as times were slow but as hasn't run in this grade since april 2015 with a mark of just 75 and claimer taking off 7 pound then might be worth a small bet.Stable have been out of foprm as well,no winners this season if showing anything like best at home you'd expect it to be gambled,the fav simply me has been moppung up weak races and could wel do so again as nearly everything in this race hasn't been at its best although I think if a couple hit form would be struggling/.I put up lady Lydia last time out,she ran her worst race of the season,tomorrow gets tongue tie and pieces and in this class could easily figure esoecially on the run behind bargain buy at lingfield..

Childesplay 7/1 365 8/1 ppower

2.10 Wolves

An impossible looking handicap,the Appleby horse being gambled on with de souse two class droppers in panther patrol and aragon knight they could both well win this race with the latter drawn 1 as well,difficult to know if this will be set up for finisher with pace from four runners cruisetothelimit,spirit of wedza aragon knight and moi aussie.Iliked the way spirit of wedza led from the 10 draw last time out,still found more and was only given a three pound rise,problem is profile has always been one to avoid 1/31 before last run but it's last run was in that decent time with fleckerl in third and major valentine in 4th a second quicker than other division on the night.Tomorrow is drawn poorly again in 8,will have to be in that fiorm to get across again with horses like aragon knight in 1 and will need pace not to collapse,i will have a token bet on it as the time was so good and hope gets good break and will also add in major valentine with a 9 pound turnaround.They strictly on previous form cannot win this race,on form would be hard to bet but as time was decent will have two small bets..spirit of wedza if gets away well should at least trade relatively low,if infront after a furlong should be decent back to lay..

Spirit of wedza 13/2 betbright 6/1 victor/hills/365/ Major valentine 8/1 victor 365/skybet/betbright..

Got the ew money and little place on it,impossible picking winners at the moment getting everything right regards prices as well..
 
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The cards go from being very uncompetitve can't find anything to overly competitive like tomorrow,could easily pick 2/3 in a race..Just for the trolls on betfair last months figures were 18 bets 6 winners advised prices 170% ROI and at BFSP 130%

Am hoping for some easier cards as not much aw left now,i won't be doing much on the turf my health isn't good enough to do 6/7 meetings everyday and if I can't do the lot then it's not worth doing,will do the 2yr olds and maybe march,april,may but once the night racing starts then will have to knock it on the head.Just stick to the aw,but that looks like it will be mainly Newcastle dominated,hopefully will land one of these ante post bets..Will try and get a couple pf previews up on the aw before end of the season,the reason I don't do them very often is the cards are usually so poor so don't want to tell everyone that a 6/4 chance can win every other race and unless I can see some sort of value on the cards then no point in just guessing.Hopefully find something for the Lincoln,last season the early months were my worst ever I can remember and that was due to the going we got,was totally inaccurate so will be a bit more cautious this season..
 
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gigilo said:
2.40 Wolves

Fleckerls 8/1 ppower/sportsbook 15/2 365

Fleckrls an impossible horse to predict has dropped dramatically in the weights,was rated 91 april 2016 now rated just 70 has shown very little in recent times invariably gets left with too much to do or just shows no interest in racing.Looks like s similar scenario tomorrow with lots of holds up,but as he gave the field 12ls last time out only to be beaten 1 1/2ls then at the prices of 8/1 15/2 he's worth a small bet,that race was run at a decent gallop whixch suited I can't see much pace in this race either but 8/1 is overpriced on that run would imagine will go off nearer to 5/1 maybe even shotrter.Just to put into context the times last time out,pushkin museum ran in the 2nd div that day and the time of that race was a second slower than the race fleckerl ran in same grade that race was run in very good time for grade.There are lots in this race that could run well,too many to mention an ultra competitive race even picket line well handicapped and African blessing looks well handicapped although first time out this season..

ew multiples

Lovely place got 1.8 can't believe the layers for this race was always likely to be running on strongly into 2nd or 3rd at least.,nice profit on the day..
just need that bit of luck to turn it a big day..

4.10

Childesplay is similar to fleckrl was running really well last season,was rated 85 when second over this c/d to apache storm in far better race than this in a very fast time on that form would be fav but since that only decent run has ben a 5th to merhoob off 80.Has come back after a long break in two runs probably something has been amiss,they actually flatter the horse I think as times were slow but as hasn't run in this grade since april 2015 with a mark of just 75 and claimer taking off 7 pound then might be worth a small bet.Stable have been out of foprm as well,no winners this season if showing anything like best at home you'd expect it to be gambled,the fav simply me has been moppung up weak races and could wel do so again as nearly everything in this race hasn't been at its best although I think if a couple hit form would be struggling/.I put up lady Lydia last time out,she ran her worst race of the season,tomorrow gets tongue tie and pieces and in this class could easily figure esoecially on the run behind bargain buy at lingfield..

Childesplay 7/1 365 8/1 ppower

Nice little saver at 25s unreal prices!!!:ninja: 29bfsp!

2.10 Wolves

An impossible looking handicap,the Appleby horse being gambled on with de souse two class droppers in panther patrol and aragon knight they could both well win this race with the latter drawn 1 as well,difficult to know if this will be set up for finisher with pace from four runners cruisetothelimit,spirit of wedza aragon knight and moi aussie.Iliked the way spirit of wedza led from the 10 draw last time out,still found more and was only given a three pound rise,problem is profile has always been one to avoid 1/31 before last run but it's last run was in that decent time with fleckerl in third and major valentine in 4th a second quicker than other division on the night.Tomorrow is drawn poorly again in 8,will have to be in that fiorm to get across again with horses like aragon knight in 1 and will need pace not to collapse,i will have a token bet on it as the time was so good and hope gets good break and will also add in major valentine with a 9 pound turnaround.They strictly on previous form cannot win this race,on form would be hard to bet but as time was decent will have two small bets..spirit of wedza if gets away well should at least trade relatively low,if infront after a furlong should be decent back to lay..

Spirit of wedza 13/2 betbright 6/1 victor/hills/365/ Major valentine 8/1 victor 365/skybet/betbright..

Got the ew money and little place on it,impossible picking winners at the moment getting everything right regards prices as well..
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3.30 Southwell

Showboaing hasn't won since july 2015 whether he will ever win now at 9 is debataeble but does retain abiliy as shown when 2nd off 82 behind mithqaal in january,has run once since then and now another drop of 2 pound and runs in this grade for first time since that win in july 2015 off 77.He's worse off in the weights with vivat rex strictly should finish beind it,but at prices he's worth another go the race is chocca full of horses in form but big steps up in class for a lot of them,if he gets a decent pace to chase which is essential then could still run well aty a big price..

Showboating 20/1 ppower/sportsbook

2.0

Have backed crosse fire once this season,then left him so many times missing the break inbetween those missing the breaks has some very good form in class 3/4/ and 5s,he maybe worth giving one more chance in this race for horss rated upto 70.,he hasn't won since march 2016 so could only be a token bet.Might also be worth having a token bet on red stripes in the same race,similar to crosse fore hasn't won in a long time jan 2015 but that was when in this grade,similarly can miss the break but has run ok here in two c/d runs this season and trainer has at least now had a winner this season,off 67 with a 7 pound claim could run ok in a very weak race,closely matched with crosse fire when they were 3rd and 4th behind captain lars over c/d back in december,ran terrible last time out at wolves so again just a token bet as weak grade..

Crosse fire 7/2 ppower 4/1 sportsbook 10/30 hills/skybet/365 Red stripes 14/1 ppower/sportsbook 16/1 hills

Although you couldn't trust cross fire,i still think this will be massively overbet 11/4 still left 5/2 geberally could well go off nearer 7/4 so bit in there for trading or free bet..lots of gambles hgoing on in race powerful dream could be sgbnificant but think fav will go off a lot shorter.3.8 on betfair..

Got place money on it but really does look unbackable now as was infront with hundred yards to go,the winner I've ben waiting months for only ever ran well with tongue tioe when with tony carrolll Appleby gets it and wins fiorst time without it and well backed trainer just seems to be different class..
 
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gigilo said:
3.30 Southwell

Showboaing hasn't won since july 2015 whether he will ever win now at 9 is debataeble but does retain abiliy as shown when 2nd off 82 behind mithqaal in january,has run once since then and now another drop of 2 pound and runs in this grade for first time since that win in july 2015 off 77.He's worse off in the weights with vivat rex strictly should finish beind it,but at prices he's worth another go the race is chocca full of horses in form but big steps up in class for a lot of them,if he gets a decent pace to chase which is essential then could still run well aty a big price..

Showboating 20/1 ppower/sportsbook

KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!Got to admit I was expecting 10/2 tops best horse in the race and completely run to suit,what a touch!!!!:lol::lol::ninja: How they priced this race up I don't know anything arounf evens 8s,9s was value incredible!!!:whistle:

2.0

Have backed crosse fire once this season,then left him so many times missing the break inbetween those missing the breaks has some very good form in class 3/4/ and 5s,he maybe worth giving one more chance in this race for horss rated upto 70.,he hasn't won since march 2016 so could only be a token bet.Might also be worth having a token bet on red stripes in the same race,similar to crosse fore hasn't won in a long time jan 2015 but that was when in this grade,similarly can miss the break but has run ok here in two c/d runs this season and trainer has at least now had a winner this season,off 67 with a 7 pound claim could run ok in a very weak race,closely matched with crosse fire when they were 3rd and 4th behind captain lars over c/d back in december,ran terrible last time out at wolves so again just a token bet as weak grade..

Crosse fire 7/2 ppower 4/1 sportsbook 10/30 hills/skybet/365 Red stripes 14/1 ppower/sportsbook 16/1 hills

Although you couldn't trust cross fire,i still think this will be massively overbet 11/4 still left 5/2 geberally could well go off nearer 7/4 so bit in there for trading or free bet..lots of gambles hgoing on in race powerful dream could be sgbnificant but think fav will go off a lot shorter.3.8 on betfair..

Got place money on it but really does look unbackable now as was infront with hundred yards to go,the winner I've ben waiting months for only ever ran well with tongue tioe when with tony carrolll Appleby gets it and wins fiorst time without it and well backed trainer just seems to be different class..
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Saw you looking at the thread yesterday jonny,didn't even realize you were a member,hope you got a price..:D
 
Best tipping I ever seen, thanks Mate, had a few quid on some of them but decided to have a go on showboating at 11/1 for the Cheltenham funds,

Thanks again.
 
3.20 Southwell

Boots and spurs is a horse most aw followers have backed and his profile is one of being totally unreliable,seems to run well in decent races with apparently no chance as this season 2nds to holiday magic and 4th to shoboating just 2 days ago,that run was off lowest ever mark on monday but it may also be a case of stable have had a nightmare season.Scott dixons usually has at some point a decent run on the aw but his aw regulars look to have regressed and he's had very few winners,it maybe worth risking this one time a small bet on boots and spurs tomorrow,the form looked so solid and from a poor draw racing prominently throughout on monday,just as likely to come last or first the fav just about makes a little bit of value on that last run,likely to go off nearer ti 5/1 /9/2 tops than 9/1 so should be decent trade..

Boots and spurs 9/1 ppower/sportsbook

May also be able to get something out of him in running,hopefully will be up there from the 4 draw up with pace or infront...

8.15 Newcastle

Put top offer last time out,gave the field a huge start and not beaten far in 5th,not really the type you want to be betting at short prices that's why i tend to wait till he's big prices as doesn't win very often but does run better than form figures suggest.Tomorrow gets dropped into a race for horses rated up to 60 last time ran in this grade won over 6fs back in 2015 by 3 3/4ls,the big ? is wehther the stiff 7fs here will suit as well as the fast 7fs at wolves i have my doubts as the wolves form hasn't really correlated to newcastle.Trainer has yet to have a winner in 2017 as well and the jockey booking looks strange,only rode it once well beaten so plenty of negatives.Will have a token bet at prices and hopefully will take to the track,there's plenty of solid newcastle form in the race orlando rogue won better class race than this last time out on the track so looks obvious pick in the race and made all,with others that like the surface could only be a token bet.Would imagine will go off around 6/1,a chance of a bit of a gamble in a poor race even if doesn't take to surface..

Top offer 12/1 365 10/1 sportsbook/skybet/totesport/betfred/hills 9/1 ppower

Cannot be unhappy with the place,would never back it again pinged the raps in better race Monday today doesn't get to the front only just seen replay so counting myself lucky...SP 7/2:D
 
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As if by magic lol, made it :)

gigilo said:
3.20 Southwell

Boots and spurs is a horse most aw followers have backed and his profile is one of being totally unreliable,seems to run well in decent races with apparently no chance as this season 2nds to holiday magic and 4th to shoboating just 2 days ago,that run was off lowest ever mark on monday but it may also be a case of stable have had a nightmare season.Scott dixons usually has at some point a decent run on the aw but his aw regulars look to have regressed and he's had very few winners,it maybe worth risking this one time a small bet on boots and spurs tomorrow,the form looked so solid and from a poor draw racing prominently throughout on monday,just as likely to come last or first the fav just about makes a little bit of value on that last run,likely to go off nearer ti 5/1 /9/2 tops than 9/1 so should be decent trade..

Boots and spurs 9/1 ppower/sportsbook

May also be able to get something out of him in running,hopefully will be up there from the 4 draw up with pace or infront...

8.15 Newcastle

Put top offer last time out,gave the field a huge start and not beaten far in 5th,not really the type you want to be betting at short prices that's why i tend to wait till he's big prices as doesn't win very often but does run better than form figures suggest.Tomorrow gets dropped into a race for horses rated up to 60 last time ran in this grade won over 6fs back in 2015 by 3 3/4ls,the big ? is wehther the stiff 7fs here will suit as well as the fast 7fs at wolves i have my doubts as the wolves form hasn't really correlated to newcastle.Trainer has yet to have a winner in 2017 as well and the jockey booking looks strange,only rode it once well beaten so plenty of negatives.Will have a token bet at prices and hopefully will take to the track,there's plenty of solid newcastle form in the race orlando rogue won better class race than this last time out on the track so looks obvious pick in the race and made all,with others that like the surface could only be a token bet.Would imagine will go off around 6/1,a chance of a bit of a gamble in a poor race even if doesn't take to surface..

Top offer 12/1 365 10/1 sportsbook/skybet/totesport/betfred/hills 9/1 ppower

Cannot be unhappy with the place,would never back it again pinged the raps in better race Monday today doesn't get to the front only just seen replay so counting myself lucky...SP 7/2:D
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Lee carter has a couple of runners in this race and either could be a gamble,but impossible to preidct whe his horses will run well,so no surprise were he to win it,spirit of giondree has been in really good form recently and has come down the weights and probably has the best recet form.
Last three runs although beaten over 7ls that was behind gossiping,in a decent time at wolves then was second to athaseel over inadequate 7fs and last time out 4th to fire diamond in a race for horses rated upto 65 those are three solid runs in the context of this race,just a race for horses rated upto 55 and spirit of gondree hasn't run over a mile off 55 since December 2013..not much in price but if the carter horses go unbacked can see this going off nearer 9/4 maybe shorter


Write up from last run,runs in the 5.45 at chelmsford tomorrow ran its worst race of the season at kempton in above race worth giving it another go in similar race this actually looks a slightly better race but still knowhere near as good as the races he had run well in and another pound drop.He has never won over this c/d but has been 3rd from 4 runs,watching through his replays he has been running really keen,which may ecxplain why hasn't been winning hopefully from the 2 draw will just sit in and not iover race could actually be a decent back to lay.There are other horses in the race with decent 7f form like taverner and blackthorn stick but they have a bit to prove over the trip,although they may run well.If he could reproduce his two runs prior to the kempton run would looks 7/2 shot..there is a possibility prices will hold up being a saturday

Spirit of gondree 6/1 365 5/1 skybet

May even find same prices on betfair or bigger,after last run hard to be too precise Saturdays can throw up unpredictable markets on the aw..
 
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AW Mile finas day

Yuften 14/1 hills/betfred/totesport/boyles/betway..obviousl;y may not run in the race but after this afternoons race think trainer will be too tempted...

Enaaddd does look worth of being 3/1 fav for the race clocked 1m36.45 at Kempton when winning a listed race back in November soverign debt behind, 4th win on 6th ever run is 3/1 could be different class to the field could be worth a saver with 365 going 3/1 and 4/1 marathon bet.Yuftens comeback run today running on well beaten in the wilfruna over 7fs stuck out wide just to be touched off upsides keystroke at finish,roger Charlton now trains and only third run for him was rated 116 back in 2015 so could say has regressed but Charlton got him to win a class 2 handiocap at the end of the season and he maybe coming back to his best.If you go back to Dundalk april 2016 when with murtagh he slaughtered sir Isaac newton by 4 1/2ls on the aw over 7fs,isaac newton now rated 116 although not its best trip yuften may just be a very decdent aw hoprse..Wouldn't surprise me if on finals day is half this price,similar to the ante post sprint bets I put up on finals day,a lot of the potential runners havn't been seen this season or in a long time..

Just checked on Lancelot du lac the 25/1 put up has now become 5/1,with a month to go Pretend still 4/1..
 
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