Dewhurst Stakes

Well done Luke.

Shit I suppose might be appropriate but it had a look of a ride with next year in mind...only used the whip twice and looked to do so grudgingly.
 
Not good enough Gal. None fo the O'Brien 2yo's have been, but then lucky for Ballydoyle, there's not too much opposition around either

Naaqoos is the fastest 2yo I've found this year, and he's hardly stellar although the Dewhurst does make the Longchamp win look a bit better now. Normally by the end of July I've unearthed a few possibilities, and have a decent pecking order of about 6 come this part of the season. To date I have a short-list of one useful performer who might be heading for Newmarket.

This lot are the poorest group of 2yo's I hold records for (and by quite some distance too)
 
I'm having one of those days -I backed Caracciola at 100/1 for small money.I am now packing it in for the day and bringing the wife and little girl ten pin bowling and a pizza.
Pity I put Leg Spinner in the placepot.
 
It has just come back to me that on the way home from work this morning I stopped in the bookies to do a placepot.I was close to writing out an ew double Caraciola and Intense Focus-for some reason I just didn't bother.
 
Mastercraftsman is a better horse than Intense Focus both on achievement to date and future scope. He was over the top in Paris but Shaweel ran well enough today to suggest the craftsman can be the master in the spring.

Gosh I should be writing headlines for the tabloids.
 
To write copy for the tabloids you have to put the age of the object after its name.

So it would read something like;

Mastercraftsman, trained by Aiden O'Brien, 39 of wexford, is the most likely Guineas winner.

Oh, and make sure to mention if they're unemployed or had any children out of wedlock that they're claiming benefits for
 
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I'm not too sure in honesty Grey, as last year was just as bad and yet enough decent 2yo performers came to the fore. Very often too, you're more likely to generate a high speed figure in heavy ground as the variance calculation from which they're all generated from becomes more volatile as the scope for error increases in line with the wider band of performance that heavy ground throws up. Some of the bigger figures I've come across have occurred on heavy ground, where one particularly well suited horse runs a fast time on a card where other horses might have taken it easy by comparison. Therefore, I'd have more reason to expect to see figures of 100+. Evening Time would be one such candidate who springs to mind. She ran a massive figure in heavy ground, but never went on to fulfill that promise, although she suffered a set back and one could easily suggest this was the reason.

If I were looking for a weather related explanation I suspect it's more likely to be found in the possibility that the better 2yo's have been running on ground that hasn't allowed them to advertise the merits of the true ability to the full as yet. I suspect this is quite possible, but the real prolem we have with concealed performances of this nature, is knowing which horse has put one in.

It's also possible I suppose that an unraced 3yo might emerge, but I wouldn't have thought that this was likely in time for May.

I suspect that those people who are knowledgable and blessed with an eye for being able to read a horse, probably hold sway over those of us whose lack of knowledge reduces us to the stopwatch for the class of 2008.
 
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I wouldn't be so sure Warbler - I think the Classic trials provide some of the best opportunities to find horses via speed ratings. If there's nothing from the previous season to worry about it just makes even more valuable.
 
Depends whether you're talking about the Guineas or the middle distance trials Gareth. Conventional wisdom suggests that most horses go straight to Newmarket now, so to a large extent we're reduced to using 2yo form and gossip from gallops about how they're developing. Personally I tend to concentrate on the Guineas first and then start the search for Epsom et al, through the various trials. I normally like to have a decent winter position on something at a fancy price, but right now haven't done a bean. The Guineas (1K more than 2K) have been by far and away my best 'classic' both in terms of profit and S/R, but right now I've never been so clueless going into the winter.
 
This time last year Henrythenavigator was one of the back numbers in the 2yo discussions because of his defeats on soft ground. A similar thing could happen with Mastercraftsman. If you take the view as I have that he was over the top in the Lagarde and that the National Stakes is pretty irrelevent given the ground it was run on then you`re left with his victory in the Phoenix Stakes - and that was the most impressed I`ve been with a 2yo all year.
Like I said before, I suspect the 2000 Guineas winner may not have been seen yet - but I`m gonna stay on the right side of AOB this winter. Mcm is the most likely winner at this stage.
 
I would have to agree with Euronymous on that.

Mastercraftsman would be my Guineas horse at around 8/1 to 10/1 ... very generous in a wide open market.
 
Layers tend to put too much emphasis on the most recent result when pricing events up. I remember Kevin Pullein writing something along those lines in one of his football columns for the Post a couple of years back. He said that the overall profile of a team`s results were more important than just the last one. We see the same thing in Racing as well. It`s the reason that New Approach was such a big price for the Derby. And thinking of the Guineas, I remember a couple of impressive Lowther winners - Harayir and Cape Verdi - running poorly in the Cheveley Park and being pushed out to backable prices for the 1000G even though it was obvious they had had enough for the season.
 
I suspect that bad weather, especially in the spring, does more to juveniles than merely slow them down on difficult terrain. They need some gentler weather in order to develop properly. If all the time they are learning their trade they are also coping with wind, cold and rain it cannot be helpful.

I have no evidence for this notion, it is but a theory.
 
I suspect you're right, which leads me again to hypothesise there's a few concealed performances flying about. It's just that I don't know where they are
 
Layers tend to put too much emphasis on the most recent result when pricing events up. I remember Kevin Pullein writing something along those lines in one of his football columns for the Post a couple of years back. He said that the overall profile of a team`s results were more important than just the last one
Click to expand...

Cant agree with that. Football teams play many more games than horses have runs of course and their profiles are not likely to change substantially from one match to the next. Depending on what was expected from the horse before the race by connections, I have tended towards the view that punters are often too inclined to make excuses for a bad run
 
Whilst Mastercraftsman has come in for a lot of criticism since his Longchamp demise, I tend to agree with the poster who says he was probably over the top that day. However, whereas comparisons can be made with Henrythenavigator in terms of going into winter quarters with a tarnished reputation, last season the classic picture still had New Approach to get excited about.

This season take out Mastercraftsman and you are left with Naaqoos who hardly sets the pulse racing in the same way New Approach did, especially as his earlier season form put him well behind Mastercraftsman.

Also, on the line through Lord Shanakill and Bushranger in the Morny, Mastercraftsman would have been a very impressive winner of the Dewhurst. So, if one is prepared to row in with the Ballydoyle explanation of the Grand Criterium being "one race too many" then Mastercraftsman could yet prove to be a top class 3 year old.

Personally I think next season could be ripe for a "dark horse" to emerge in the spring, like a Doyoun or a Golan.
 
New Approach did the clock so quirky as he is the point was prooved, and his owner looked looked as pleased as punch
 
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