Douvan - two questions

Grey said:
Suny and DO, how well would Douvan have to perform next week to persuade you to change your minds?
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I agree with my learn'd Scottish and Spanish amigos. Douvan is nothing more than the latest Beef or Salmon. Flat track bully of second rate Irish non-triers.
 
Tanlic said:
That's a bit of aftertiming now we know he gets further but he would have won a Racing Post Chase and the Arkle plus others at 2 miles had it not been for Douvan he may not have been stepped up in trip.
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Nothing Sizing John has done against Douvan has suggested he's a 'superstar' over that trip. He was coming off 2nd best with Vaniteux in the Arkle.

Going up in trip was clearly going to help him.
 
Beating UDS 1 length would do, but we know that won't be allowed by Mullins. France was written 8 months ago, a fate that not even winning the best G1s over 2 miles before Chelt, couldn't prevent. They were unhappy with the 6th in the summer, sooo back to Auteuil.

P.S. Of course I wish connections a happy 5th over the Ryanair trip, thats what progress is all about.
 
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Grey said:
Suny and DO, how well would Douvan have to perform next week to persuade you to change your minds?
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Assuming my own figures tell me that the horses that finish second thru to 5th have run very close to their form, I'd say Douvan would have to win either pulling a train or by at least 7 lengths for me to accept he's a 180+ horse, which I'm not convinced he is. At the moment I have him on no more than 170 but I accept he's better than that. I have UDS on 174 so I probably have to accept that he's at least that good although whether UDS can still run to 174 at 2m is another issue.

Even Special Tiara's best form of last season would put him on 170. That's the level Douvan is running to purely on the numbers. Think on that.
 
Douvan has been doing it in a hack canter and not even blowing at the end of his races. There's nothing to come close to him. He may only win 3 or 4 lengths at the Festval, buts that'll be in a Champion Chase and in second gear totally unextended. Why go and win by 20 lengths when he can stay fresh for Aintree and Punchestown
 
Yes, but Buveur D'Air's last win amounted to zip on the book despite his doing it in a hack canter.

Douvan is beating nothing remotely approaching the class of Fox Norton, Uxizandre, Un De Sceaux or even God's Own regardless of how easily he's doing it. I could carry you and beat what he's beating.
 
Is it that trainers are just a bit too fearful of Douvan? He's still unbeaten, and his list of G1s don't just win themselves. I can see that he divides opinion but if he keeps on at his best distance (could be the Ryanair next year admittedly), he'll soon approach The Fly's G1 record.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, but Buveur D'Air's last win amounted to zip on the book despite his doing it in a hack canter.

Douvan is beating nothing remotely approaching the class of Fox Norton, Uxizandre, Un De Sceaux or even God's Own regardless of how easily he's doing it. I could carry you and beat what he's beating.
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I'm not sure what more he could do. He's run thirteen times winning eight Grade 1's and two Grade 2's winning them all by an average of ten lengths all in a hack canter. If he was pushed out it would have been considerably more. We've either got the worst bunch of two mile hurdlers and chasers of all time by some distance or he's being massively underestimated.

My theory is we've come off the back of Sprinter Sacre and because he was so good people don't want to believe just how good Douvan is. For what it's worth I think he will be pushed up in distance next season. Not because Willie wants to avoid Altior, simply because he's a horse that does it so easily he will stay much further and as he gets older he'll be even better for a trip.

Kauto Star is the best in my racing memory, and I think Douvan can go on to achieve more.
 
I think the point is the numbers haven't needed to be any more because he's pretty much blown all opposition away more than half a mile out from the finish Mo. His ability is well beyond the bare numbers.
 
I've no doubt he's better than the bare numbers. Quantifying that is the rub. That's much more subjective.

For me there's a huge difference between a horse going 20 lengths clear and being eased down to a seven-length win and one winning by seven lengths seemingly without being asked to extend. In the first instance the evidence is empirical, in the second it's speculative.
 
Well those 2nd raters Douvan has kicked aside have won 241 races between them and he's made every last one of them look like a tree.

Anyone who thinks he is over rated should buy a white dress and change their sport to camel racing, because they know sweet f*ck all about horses:whistle:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Assuming my own figures tell me that the horses that finish second thru to 5th have run very close to their form, I'd say Douvan would have to win either pulling a train or by at least 7 lengths for me to accept he's a 180+ horse, which I'm not convinced he is. At the moment I have him on no more than 170 but I accept he's better than that. I have UDS on 174 so I probably have to accept that he's at least that good although whether UDS can still run to 174 at 2m is another issue.

Even Special Tiara's best form of last season would put him on 170. That's the level Douvan is running to purely on the numbers. Think on that.
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Douvan hits a 170 going down to the start... geezus man where do you get your ideas from? He's 182p with Timeform a stone ahead of Altior and UDS wouldn't blow wind up his ass ffs........your post and ratings are absolute nonsense:thumbsdown:
 
I'm not sure that's true about Altior Tanlic. Altior has just as much potential as Douvan but he's a year behind him in his progression. Visibly Douvan has much more scope however, although I'm pretty sure he's going to be even better for a step up in trip and I'd be surprised if we see them clash next season.
 
Nothing makes sense.Altior is going into his Arkle off 170 Douvan went off at 160 came out 161 Sprinter Sacre went off at 169.

1. Altior's victory over Fox Norton flattered him no end as the Tizzard horse was as big as a barn door and was goosed 4 fences out.

2. His Game Spirit win does not even come close to Sprinter Sacre's defeat of French Opera who won the Game Spirit by 6 lengths and was in form when Sprinter beat him

Does anyone really think Altior is a better Novice than either Sprinter Sacre or Douvan when the damn horse hasn't even won an Arkle yet?
 
Fox Norton is one of the favourites to win the Champion Chase w/o Douvan yet Altior beat him out of sight despite jumping the fences as though they were double-decker buses. Not only that but he did so in a sensational time. I could have accepted the form was dubious (and I'm already allowing for FN being well below his best) had it not been for that time.

Earlier in the season Simon Rowlands was absolutely gushing about a split Altior had put up in one of his races (his chasing debut, was it?)

Douvan is top class. I don't doubt it. Altior is different class.

You know what they'll all be saying by the end of the week: Quia velox Altior...
 
Tanlic said:
Does anyone really think Altior is a better Novice than either Sprinter Sacre or Douvan when the damn horse hasn't even won an Arkle yet?
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I'm certainly not saying that Tanlic. What I'm saying is that he could be every bit as good and next week will tell us more. And given your connections I'd suggest you should already know that Nicky rates him just as highly as he did Sprinter at the same stage.

Given the amount of top class horses missing out this year we should just be happy that these two will be there however we rate their form. They are by far and away the two most exciting chasers around right now, and just how highly we will end up rating them we're still a while away from seeing.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Fox Norton is one of the favourites to win the Champion Chase w/o Douvan yet Altior beat him out of sight despite jumping the fences as though they were double-decker buses. Not only that but he did so in a sensational time. I could have accepted the form was dubious (and I'm already allowing for FN being well below his best) had it not been for that time.

Earlier in the season Simon Rowlands was absolutely gushing about a split Altior had put up in one of his races (his chasing debut, was it?)

Douvan is top class. I don't doubt it. Altior is different class.

You know what they'll all be saying by the end of the week: Quia velox Altior...
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Fox Norton was beaten 32 lengths by Douvan.....but let's not go there.......Public knowledge he blew up at Newbury against Altior.....looked like a prize bull they say

One of the favourites?????.......he's the only horse of the first 6 in the betting behind Douvan likely to run.............yer a comedian DO:lol:
 
granger said:
Well well well

Ground too quick, overhyped or something wrong with him?
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Has to be something wrong with him, or more so maybe all of Mullins! Only Melon and maybe Bellshill have run any sort of race so far really.
Granted there might be a case to be made that other WPM horses finished where their price/ability suggested they would, but it has to run a little deeper imo.
 
I wonder if he did himself a mischief at the fence just past the stands he looked to slip into it - bet Un de Sceaux's connections are feeling fed up and Sprinter looked in such good shape in the parade he would probably have won
 
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