Early Cheltenham Prices

I thought Aran Concerto was, if not out for season, had definitely met with a setback of some description. Hardly one to be looking at ante-post if that's the case, and almost certainly not one to be backing for the Arkle, where quick ground would surely find him out over 2m, even if he does make the race.

Henderson knows what it takes to win the Arkle, but I'd rather have a few kopeks at a big price obout something like Punjabi, than take 10's about Afsoun, this far from the race. I know the allowance is no longer in the younger brigades favour, and I don't know if he's being targeted at novice chases (not Arkle quoted on BF), but Punjabi is a strapping sort, and looks made to jump fences.

Can't say I'm overly enamoured of any of the odds on offer in the RSA Chase, but Carrick Oscar is one that I might look to bet at a big price when the market matures.

In the Supreme Novices, Fiveforthree appeals most at 33/1, and in the Ballymore, I like Aranleigh (16/1) and Sophocles (25/1).
 
It would have been very interesting if Ask didnt win last sunday because he might have gone hurdling with the champion hurdle a possibility.
 
Funny you should say that Will - I was told as Ascot yesterday that Stoute was intending to train him for the Champion. Edit - Hurdle, that is!
 
Originally posted by Grasshopper@Oct 1 2007, 07:31 PM
Henderson knows what it takes to win the Arkle, but I'd rather have a few kopeks at a big price obout something like Punjabi, than take 10's about Afsoun, this far from the race. I know the allowance is no longer in the younger brigades favour, and I don't know if he's being targeted at novice chases (not Arkle quoted on BF), but Punjabi is a strapping sort, and looks made to jump fences.
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I'm hoping to go to a stable visit at Seven Barrows later this month; Nicky is usually pretty good about answering questions and letting us know which horse is aimed at what. But it's very early to be making decisions like that: so often a trainer will see how they go along before putting them over fences. There is no doubt Punjabi is destined for fences eventually, but NH is less likely than some trainers to hurry a horse along
 
Originally posted by Grasshopper@Oct 1 2007, 07:31 PM
I thought Aran Concerto was, if not out for season, had definitely met with a setback of some description. Hardly one to be looking at ante-post if that's the case, and almost certainly not one to be backing for the Arkle, where quick ground would surely find him out over 2m, even if he does make the race.
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Last I heard Hopper he was back at Meade's and they were just starting off with him.. would be surprised if we saw him before around Christmas myself..

As for his Cheltenham target, I'm not sure.. certainly has bags of pace but the Arkle might find him out as you say.. in hindsight though, he should have been running in the Supreme last year.. perhaps the strong gallop might just suit him?
 
Maybe, tracks, but he just looks a stayer to me, and I can't see him having the toe for the Arkle.

Mind you, I said exactly the same thing about My Way De Solzen last year! :D

Your information about Aran Concerto could well be more up-to-date than mine, as regards his well-being. But he hardly rates an ante-post proposition, whilst any question marks remain. For me at least.

Agreed NJH isn't one to over-face them early in their careers, Headstrong - especially over fences. I was just thinking out loud, as far as Punjabi is concerned, as I reckon he could spend a wasted year over hurdles (I think he is going to be hard to place) and, physically, he looks ready to jump fences already (to my untrained eye, at least).
 
Agreede about Punjabi GH, and I'm sure Nicky will want to put him over fences as soon as he is ready, - tho not before! I'll try to remember to ask him at the visit, or if I bump into him before that
 
Originally posted by Bar the Bull@Oct 3 2007, 07:22 AM
Try to remember to tell us that you have bumped into him, after you bumped into him.
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I probably won't Bar :P I'm doing v little gadding ab out these days

I tend to just 'thing out loud' sometimes when I'm replying to posts, you'll just have to put up with it and not read things into it which aren't there
 
Took a bit of 50's on Franchoek this morning for the Triumph so happy to see him get back on track at Chepstow.
I dunno why but it's always a race I try and find an improving 3 year old from the flat for that I can back ante post.
Got lucky with Spectroscope and Detroit City so lets hope Franchoek follows suit.

Cork All Star made a winning debut over hurdles today (didn't see it) and we saw an impressive display by Gawanko in the 4 year old race at Chepstow.

Theatrical Moment about to run and a good two days about to come at Cheltenham so things warming up nicely now.
 
Originally posted by Garney@Oct 13 2007, 03:26 PM
Jonjo once again shows his talent with Theatical Moment.
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Don't you mean what a good lay that was over 2m.

A bumper winner over 2m, when all bumper winners are is future 3m chasers.

When that steps up in trip it will be useful. Mark my words !!!!
 
Tell that to Collier Hill and Alfie Flits.

Last person I'd send a promising youngster to.

Hope you are right Chris, but I wouldnt back the horse with stolen money over any distance.
 
Correct me if im wrong but Alfie Flits went on the flat after bumpers, as did Collier Hill and they wern't exactly given a chance over hurdles.

There are always exceptions but I think this horse will end up a staying chaser.
 
yes, that pair and turbo linn, all from the swinbank stable went on to success, high grade success on the flat, having won bumpers on sharp tracks like Catterick, Southwell, and Aintree. Its the point that I was making. I dont think none of those three would be effective as 3m chasers.

A horse with a out and out jumping pedigree winning a bumper at Navan in deep winter ground over 2m is a different kettle of fish.

O'Neill also doing a fine job with Grecian Groom who also looked like a potential top-notcher when with a smaller stable - Niven in that example.
 
Decoupage didn't find it too hard to win a Tote Gold Trophy and a Henry VIII chase, both over 2m, after winning his bumper! They're not all slow you know! It's one of the biggest misconceptions in NH racing that a bumper winner is incapable of winning at 2m over obstacles as it needs a trip.

Other random exceptions (to go with those already mentioned) who won races at 2m over obstacles after winning bumpers are :

Brave Inca
Sound Man
Best Mate
French Holly
Gianluca
Rasharrow
Marello
Remittance Man
Ned Kelly
Hardy Eustace
Macs Joy

.....I'm getting bored now, can I stop listing names?! :P
 
It's beside the point whether or not they were better over longer trips - your post heavily inferred that bumper winners can't win races over obstacles at 2m. You named him as a great lay as "all bumper winners are is future 3m chasers"! Even though there is some truth in that, it doesn't stop bumper winners winning at 2m over obstacles, which was my point! :P
 
Talking of Cheltenham, was anybody else impressed with Tony Elves' monumental gaff on the RP site?!


TIDAL BAY'S eagerly awaited debut over fences looks likely to be put on hold if current ground conditions persist and connections will wait patiently for some “soft” in descriptions before unleashing the top-class prospect into his new career.

The 14-1 joint favourite with Coral for the Royal & SunAlliance Chase was beaten only a neck by Massini's Magic in the Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March before posting an eight-length victory from Wins Now in the Grade 2 Mersey Novices' Hurdle over 2m4f at Aintree the following month.
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Dontcha love journalists who bother to research their subjects?! As a matter of fact, as they are supposed to be specialists on their subject, he should have known exactly the horse he was talking about without having to look it up anyway! Such sloppiness.
 
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