Ebor 2024

Hard to argue with Dessie re the form as it stands but the day is young. Frankel beat the same horses a few times and the same was being said until they started winning group 1's themselves...Research the form and you will see why he ended up as goat...early days to say where cot will end up figuring
 
Not as good a card today but there's still some bets to be had.

I'm keen on New Image in the Clipper and whilst I was a bit reluctant on price grounds ante-post the fav's horrendous draw makes him a bet.

Another bad fav is Content in the Yorkshire Oaks. This is all AOB/Moore based and Emily Upjohn seems the logical alternative given the Pretty Polly form. Willing to forgive a bad run from a poor draw at Goodwood and she has rebounded from bad outings in the past.

My only other bet is tricky. I have Queen of the Mougins in my tracker with a note attached saying needs on a step up in trip. She gets that today and Star of Lady M franked her latest run yesterday but the 15 berth is a major bad vibe - I've gone small ew in the hope she can get a place.
 
I took advantage of an outstanding bet earlier where losing looks out of the question.
100 pts would win you 107 pts profit on Betfair.
Not a lot you may think but if you can find one to get within 3 lengths or more of Heavens Gate and or Leovanni you're a better man than me. matched 4 and 4.3 was also possible with bookies.....now you can still win around 75 pounds for 100 ditching them....not a bad interest rate for very little risk
 
Euronymous said:
Not as good a card today but there's still some bets to be had.

I'm keen on New Image in the Clipper and whilst I was a bit reluctant on price grounds ante-post the fav's horrendous draw makes him a bet.

Another bad fav is Content in the Yorkshire Oaks. This is all AOB/Moore based and Emily Upjohn seems the logical alternative given the Pretty Polly form. Willing to forgive a bad run from a poor draw at Goodwood and she has rebounded from bad outings in the past.

My only other bet is tricky. I have Queen of the Mougins in my tracker with a note attached saying needs on a step up in trip. She gets that today and Star of Lady M franked her latest run yesterday but the 15 berth is a major bad vibe - I've gone small ew in the hope she can get a place.
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I worry about Emily Upjohn even when she looks like they have found a race for her she finds a way to lose.

That said I am struggling to find one to beat her today. She will be my only other best today
 
Desert Orchid said:
Just had my first look at next Saturday's race and it's shaping up as a bit of a cracker. I just hope the good horses all stand their ground.

With a max field of 22 the current #22 on the list is Magical Zoe on OR 102. I think there are a couple of races earlier in the year with 'win and you're in' status so there might be something below that mark guaranteed a run.

You need to go down to entry #32 (Sea King 99) before ORs dip below 100 so it could end up - as it should - the highest quality handicap of the season.
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I opened this thread with the above but could I have been more wrong about how the final field would look?

I can't quite believe so very many owners and trainers are passing up the chance to run for a first prize £300K. OK, so 13 of the 22 are rated 100 and more but that old hound Forza Orta gets in at the bottom off just 86 and connections of Ziggy might well be ruing picking up a penalty when they didn't need to. I imagine some that cold have run ended up going for another race earlier in the meeting before the final decs would have been known and they too might be out on the hunt for cats to kick.

It's still a high class race with 17 of the 22 rated 98 or more but there's no Godolphin or Juddmonte reps and only one Shadwell and one Coolmore and Moore rides in Ireland. No shortage of Irish raiders, though, and plenty of other good yards well represented.

But I must say, based on recent years I never thought in my lifetime I'd see something rated 86 make the cut. That's like me making the cut for the Open so if Forza Orta goes and wins you can expect to see me next year strutting round Royal Portrush in my plus-fours and spikes, brandishing my brassie, baffie, cleek and mashie niblick.
 
Back to City Of Troy...

This is Simon Rowlands's take and puts COT's performance into a historical perspective. I'm particularly interested in the idea that the race distance was shorter than past renewals and it makes a bit of a mockery (in my opinion) of that record time.

It also confirms what I said earlier, that Ghostwriter must have been close to the old track record. He did, in fact, beat it too.

www.attheraces.com

Sectional Spotlight | At The Races

In part one of Simon's York Ebor Festival analysis, he marvels at a trio of classy performers who impressed our time ratings expert.
www.attheraces.com www.attheraces.com
 
Desert Orchid said:
Back to City Of Troy...

This is Simon Rowlands's take and puts COT's performance into a historical perspective. I'm particularly interested in the idea that the race distance was shorter than past renewals and it makes a bit of a mockery (in my opinion) of that record time.

It also confirms what I said earlier, that Ghostwriter must have been close to the old track record. He did, in fact, beat it too.

www.attheraces.com

Sectional Spotlight | At The Races

In part one of Simon's York Ebor Festival analysis, he marvels at a trio of classy performers who impressed our time ratings expert.
www.attheraces.com www.attheraces.com
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So we are upgrading GW then......;)
 
I was out all day yesterday, didn't see any racing until the evening and didn't get to look at today's races until this morning.

A wee bit rushed and didn't dig in as much as usual so limited confidence in:

1.50 - Grey Cuban 14/1 taken; Mr Monaco 13/2 (preferred in that order)

2.25 - Quickthorn 16/1 (think PL the most likely winner but not interested at about 7/4)

3.35 - Believing 15/2 (hoping Moore makes up for the iffy ride he gave her last time)

5.20 - Paborus 8/1
 
Desert Orchid said:
Back to City Of Troy...

This is Simon Rowlands's take and puts COT's performance into a historical perspective. I'm particularly interested in the idea that the race distance was shorter than past renewals and it makes a bit of a mockery (in my opinion) of that record time.

It also confirms what I said earlier, that Ghostwriter must have been close to the old track record. He did, in fact, beat it too.

www.attheraces.com

Sectional Spotlight | At The Races

In part one of Simon's York Ebor Festival analysis, he marvels at a trio of classy performers who impressed our time ratings expert.
www.attheraces.com www.attheraces.com
Click to expand...
One thing he never highlighted was cot having to make his own running. His middle race burst burnt off the field and only caladagan was remotely close to him. As for the time I think he would have broken it by more if someone has set a quicker pace. His run in the Derby as he sliced through the field was outstanding and I believe he is a top top horse but with him now heading to the breeders Cup we will not see a huge rating. Not that ratings are the be all and end all as I don't rate Frankel as highly as others and convinced el gran senor would have beaten him over a mile. Plus sea bird and ribot must be near the top. IMHO of course. We're all entitled to them.
 
Sea Bird (145) was the top until Frankel came along.

I've said before, if you can find his Arc on Youtube check his stride. He appears to be travelling on one of those airport moving walkways compared to the horses around him.

Brigadier Gerard and Mill Reef were 144 and worthy of it when you consider the level of horses they beat and by how far and how often.

I never thought anything would come along to beat them but then we got Frankel.

Has there been a year so far when AOB hasn't claimed his best middle-distance horse is his best ever? I listen very intently to his analyses of his horses' performances but when he starts spouting shite about them being fast enough to win the July Cup or whatever then I just let those comments float in the breeze like my worst farts.
 
Desert Orchid said:
3.35 - Believing 15/2 (hoping Moore makes up for the iffy ride he gave her last time)
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Unlucky and no issue with the ride. She broke well and he didn't have her too close to the fast pace but all the speed was on the other side of the track so if anything beat her it was the draw. I backed her each-way so no harm done.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Sea Bird (145) was the top until Frankel came along.

I've said before, if you can find his Arc on Youtube check his stride. He appears to be travelling on one of those airport moving walkways compared to the horses around him.

Brigadier Gerard and Mill Reef were 144 and worthy of it when you consider the level of horses they beat and by how far and how often.

I never thought anything would come along to beat them but then we got Frankel.

Has there been a year so far when AOB hasn't claimed his best middle-distance horse is his best ever? I listen very intently to his analyses of his horses' performances but when he starts spouting shite about them being fast enough to win the July Cup or whatever then I just let those comments float in the breeze like my worst farts.
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In fairness he had two of the best sprinters in Stravinsky and mozart who won group ones by a lot but I agree he does come out with the stallion brochure spiel. As do a lot of other trainers mind you. We just notice it more with aidan as he wins so many times. He probably is frustrated that cot hasn't shown on the racecourse what they see at ballydoyle. His thrashing of haatem still one of the best perfomances of recent years. I'm sure lion of winter will be the next best ever. As you say we hear it so regularly. I just chuckle when I hear it. Johannesburg probably his best but he never trained on although aidan insists he had issues
 
If I'm going to disagree with people I prefer to do so with a degree of courtesy and respect.

Everybody's opinion is valid regardless of how much I disagree with it. Fine horse though EGS was, he was, at best, a 125 horse at a mile. Frankel was at least 140 at the trip.
 
My ratings and brief thoughts on the Ebor itself. BO are the best odds at the time of writing yesterday. The MON column is my own ratings and 122 is the level of rating that would win an average renewal.


Horse​
OR​
MON
122+​
Notes​
RPR​
BO​
Naqeeb​
105 ​
123​
?​
116 ​
12/1​
NR Alfred Boucher​
99 ​
123​
76 ​
66/1​
Forza Orta​
86 ​
123​
? d?​
114 ​
66/1​
Fairbanks​
100 ​
121​
p​
117 ​
12/1​
Kihavah​
95 ​
121​
t?​
119 ​
33/1​
Yashin​
105 ​
120​
116 ​
33/1​
Epic Poet​
100 ​
120​
+ t?​
114 ​
8/1​
Not So Sleepy​
99 ​
120​
114 ​
40/1​
Chillingham​
96 ​
120​
123​
117 ​
25/1​
Sea King​
99 ​
119​
p​
117 ​
28/1​
My Mate Mozzie​
98 ​
119​
+​
114 ​
16/1​
Oneforthegutter​
90 ​
119​
117 ​
66/1​
Relentless Voyager​
108 ​
118​
p​
116 ​
14/1​
Crystal Delight​
105 ​
118​
+p​
117 ​
25/1​
Ziggy​
101 ​
117​
p​
114 ​
18/1​
Iron Lion​
95 ​
117​
p​
117 ​
40/1​
Wise Eagle​
107 ​
116​
112 ​
33/1​
Queenstown​
107 ​
115​
p​
109 ​
8/1​
Magical Zoe​
102 ​
115​
p?​
107 ​
10/1​
Onesmoothoperator​
101 ​
115​
? p​
112 ​
20/1​
Burdett Road​
101 ​
115​
114 ​
12/1​
Hipop De Loire​
103 ​
114​
? +?​
112 ​
10/1​

Forza Orta is an old dog but is worth a small bet at huge odds just in case he suddenly returns to his best but I’m anticipating a drift to 80s or 100s by the morning so will hold off for now. The main bet will be Naqeeb, though, who looks a long-term Shadwell plot. They love this race. There’s no money for him at the moment so I’ll hold off for now and hope for 14s and/or the BOG in the morning. Crystal Delight and Chillingham will be my other bets.
 
It’s a disappointing field . I hate that three year olds are excluded now from running in it .
 
King Henry -what a man-and I didn't have a penny on it.Magical Zoe has been campaigned openly and honestly since Day 1 -Great to see her winning a massive pot.
 
Are there any Irish trainers who aren't?

Back in April when I was on holiday in Fuengirola I got talking to a fellow guest from Galway who has shares in some horses and he said you'd never meet a more pleasant and gentlemanly person than Willie Mullins.

A couple of years back I spoke to an ex-amateur jockey who told me the same about Shark Hanlon.

To be honest, I do find it very heartwarming and reassuring hearing these comments because it can't be an easy existence for these people.
 
Glad I backed Kihavah each way. Ran a stormer. Hampered by the injured horse who died aswell I think.

I've finished the day nicely in profit.

I had no profit to report this week until today so very pleased.
 
Marb said:
Glad I backed Kihavah each way. Ran a stormer. Hampered by the injured horse who died aswell I think.

I've finished the day nicely in profit.

I had no profit to report this week until today so very pleased.
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Well done, Marb

Pleased for you. Lol.

People got their heads so stuck up their own anuses sometimes it's hard to see out!

I get it!
 
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