Ebor

Cill Railaig has stamina to prove but winning at tracks like Epsom and Ascot should hold him in good stead. Admittedly will need to find considerable improvement but Morrison is not immune at readying one for the top handicaps. A trainer I like to have on side and a good E/W hope here.
 
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Can't really see Modun having a problem with either ground or distance, Gus.
The ground's drying out, and yesterday's times weren't a great deal removed from those on John Smith's Cup day. More warm sun today, too.
Fulll brother to Saptapadi also, whom we know gets 2 miles.
At 7/1, he'll do for me.
 
reet hard said:
Can't really see Modun having a problem with either ground or distance, Gus.
The ground's drying out, and yesterday's times weren't a great deal removed from those on John Smith's Cup day. More warm sun today, too.
Fulll brother to Saptapadi also, whom we know gets 2 miles.
At 7/1, he'll do for me.
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Half brother, Modun is by Kings Best and Saptapadi by Indian RIdge
 
Was told last night that David watchmans horse was fancied to go well today in this. I'm on the edge of a breakdown my punting has been so bad, so am afraid to look at the formbook, anyone care to advise me has it a chance??
 
The Ebor an age restricted compressed handicap with 4 y/o and upwards only with a handicap spread of 110 - 98 and twenty runners.

Where the fuck do you start - PASS.
 
I like that Fox Hunt, good solid performer as is his trainer.
Anyway, him & Halicarnassus and Harlestone Times.

(That John Dunlop must be 92 if he's 60. Is it still the old man, I wonder? Or does he have a son?)
 
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davidjohnson said:
Personally, I think he's a horse that is potentially tricky, I'd be concerned he might pull for Fallon.
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Inspired stuff from DJ re Saptapadi who always seemed to be racing a little keenly.

I'm on a long losing run in the Ebor now. It's always been a tricky race, as it should be, but I suspect it's even more difficult nowadays with the limited weights range and the fact that hardly any three-year-olds even get into the race. It certainly feels more difficult although I suppose I might think differently if Saptapadi had trotted up yesterday.

I'm firmly in the Tom Segal camp on the need to allocate places in the race by reference to a horse's rating rather than its allotted weight. Channel 4 showed footage yesterday of Sir Montagu's romp in 1976. By coincidence, that was my first Ebor and having looked it up in the Form Book I note that there were seven three-year-olds in the race that year, including the winner, and some top names among them including Shangamuzo, Move Off and Grey Baron. The Lonsdale in those days was a two-mile handicap open to older horses as well as three-year-olds.
 
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How does Michael Bell feel this morning? He sold Moyenne Corniche at the end of last year and same trainers Tactician comes second to him. That's gotta hurt. :blink:
 
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gus said:
I'm firmly in the Tom Segal camp on the need to allocate places in the race by reference to a horse's rating rather than its allotted weight.
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I don't think I would be in the Segal camp on this issue.

The older horses have been properly assessed by the handicapper, or at least ought to be, whereas the three year olds aspiring to run in the race have probably never run over the distance, are unexposed and have opportunities to run in pattern races.

Three year olds have enough opportunities without giving them an easy run at one of the juiciest prizes available to horses that have to make their living in the rough and tumble of handicaps.
 
Fair enough, please let me rephrase.

I think that some three year olds have got into the race in the past without ever having been properly assessed by the handicapper, which gave them too big an advantage. But easy is the wrong word.
 
Grey said:
I think that some three year olds have got into the race in the past without ever having been properly assessed by the handicapper, which gave them too big an advantage.
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That may or may not have been the case in the past but I just don't think it would apply now. In the 1976 example, seven three-year-olds ran in the race. For seven of them to have got into yesterday's renewal by dint of having a high enough official rating they would have had to be rated 98 and above. You would need to have shown your hand to a considerable degree to have a rating as high as that. Of course, a three-year-old might well have more improvement to come than an older horse but take the argument that they've never been properly assessed to its logical conclusion and you'd never have any handicaps where three-year-olds take on their elders.

I'm not suggesting you look at the Ebor in isolation and I accept you have to get the balance right in terms of opportunities for the different age groups but it seems to me that the Ebor is a less attractive race than it used to be in terms of generating interest and betting turnover now that it's effectively a handicap for older horses with a limited weights range.
 
Of course, a three-year-old might well have more improvement to come than an older horse but take the argument that they've never been properly assessed to its logical conclusion and you'd never have any handicaps where three-year-olds take on their elders.
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That's probably right, but as far as I'm concerned that would be acceptable.

it seems to me that the Ebor is a less attractive race than it used to be in terms of generating interest and betting turnover now that it's effectively a handicap for older horses with a limited weights range.
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I have no idea of the commercial impact of this change, but for my part I used to find it tedious being faced with a lightly raced horse in the race, very prominent in the betting, whose potential nobody really knew, trainer and jockey included.
 
WFA issues are certainly an increasing problem with 3-y-os getting into valuable staying handicaps. I'd quite like to see the Melrose scrapped, the Ebor ballot being based on rating rather than weight, and an Ebor consolation being added.
 
Grey said:
for my part I used to find it tedious being faced with a lightly raced horse in the race, very prominent in the betting, whose potential nobody really knew, trainer and jockey included.
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I'd be interested to hear some examples of this. They'd be few and far between. I suppose some of the O'Brien three-year-olds that have run in the race in the past few years might qualify. When they do occur - and it's not often - they add colour to these big handicaps. They don't win more than their share and people take a view about them. Some back them, some oppose them. Saturday's race lacked colour.
 
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