Epsom Derby 2020

G-G said:
When he's on something he thinks can win maybe, although I still wouldn't have him. Could say a lot more but not on a public forum.
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I'd imagine the same could be the case about many top jockeys (and other top sportsmen). As an owner you would have the prerogative of not employing him. I can think of a few 'top' jockeys I wouldn't want on a horse I owned.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've crunched some more numbers.

In the absence of a true-run all-age handicap over 12f on the same card, time comparisons become tenuous.

With that in mind, the fastest other race on the round course was the Surrey won by Safe Voyage, which looked strongly run on TV, so I've had to use that as the basis for my going allowance.

Using the current RP standards, Love's time rating is 107 and Serpentine's is 104. To that you need to factor in WFA, 13lbs according to the BHA table. I don't have Timeform's WFA table to hand (I had it a couple of weeks ago so it isn't far!) but at this time of year I think the scales are close to harmonised.

So let's say 13lbs for the time being.

This puts Love on 120, plus any sectional mark-up and any allowance for ease of victory. It puts Serpentine on 117 plus mark-up and allowance.
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As I said in a my previous post I don't usually handicap flat races but this was precisely the way I handicapped the race DO. I allowed a further pound for ease of victory and placed Serpentine on 118. I didn't see anything in the sectionals to mark him up.
 
Maruco said:
I didn't see anything in the sectionals to mark him up.
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As I said, Maruco, I used Simon Rowlands's formula for mark-ups but may have miscalculated. I note that Timeform's sectional mark him up 'only' 5lbs. The very fact that he was the slowest finisher in the entire field (which I read somewhere but it may have excluded Worthily which was eased down) after kicking on screams [to me at any rate] that he went two furlongs too soon but the move won him the race on the day. I believe he would have won by further if the jockey had held on to him for at least another furlong.

Good to know we're thinking along similar lines, though. Great minds and fools and all that :lol:
 
This thing's been done to death now.:surrender:
My simple opinion is that Sepentine is an exceptional horse and - given time - he'll prove it.
 
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Maruco said:
As I said in a my previous post I don't usually handicap flat races but this was precisely the way I handicapped the race DO. I allowed a further pound for ease of victory and placed Serpentine on 118. I didn't see anything in the sectionals to mark him up.
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the par in the course is 111% and the winner did it on 106%

5 pounds is the absolute minimum

top class horse
 
Does anyone know what the plans are for Serpentine? No entry in the Leger despite his obvious staying performance (OK commercially not the best option). Not quoted for the Arc and would need to be supplemented. In any case they already think they have the winner in Love. So that leaves the Champion Stakes for which he is quoted. But eery silence on him or have I missed something?
 
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jinnyj said:
Does anyone know what the plans are for Serpentine? No entry in the Leger despite his obvious staying performance (OK commercially not the best option). Not quoted for the Arc and would need to be supplemented. In any case they already think they have the winner in Love. So that leaves the Irish Champion Stakes for which he is quoted. But eery silence on him or have I missed something?
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Due to run on Sunday in the Grand Prix de Paris.
 
So now what do we think? Mogul won tidily enough. I think had the jockey been harder on Serpentine, he possibly would have been second. It was a fair run but no more IMO. Although I imagine AOB has probably left a bit to work on. He clearly gave him a break after Epsom due to having quick runs at that stage in his life and he will have needed it.
My verdict is poor Derby won by an enterprising ride. I think Serpentine can still progress but he’s no superstar (likewise English King massively overrated by his trainer). And I would imagine him staying in training at four. Is he going for the Arc after that?
 
Wouldn't write him off just yet, Jinny. As his trainer said, afterwards "he had a long break and was just starting back. I was very happy with how happy Christophe [Soumillon] was". Stable has a wealth of talent for the Arc, and it's not beyond the realms he may be one of them
...
 
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