Epsom Derby

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This to match the impressive lenght of the 2000 Guineas thread (18 pages last count!)......


Early entries are out for the Dante....

Best Alibi
Hala Bek
Hurricane Cat
Leningrad
Palace Episode
Poseidon Adventure
Red Rocks
Septimus
Snoqualmie Boy
The Last Drop

Looks an interesting enough renewal.

Meanwhile tomorrow in Ireland we have Heliostatic doing battle with Dylan Thomas (cut as low as 14/1 for the Derby yesterday), Mountain, Golden Arrow etc in the Derrinstown. The RP price it up as follows:

5/2 Heliostatic, 7/2 Golden Arrow, 4/1 Rekaab, 5/1 Dylan Thomas, 6/1 Mountain, 8/1 Altius, 10/1 Caribbean, 12/1 Youmzain.
 
Don't see anything in DT's pedigree which suggests he's especially suited to 10 furlongs, much less a mile and a half.

Golden Arrow is overrated in my opinion becuase GW appears twice in his form. He's still lost all his races since his debut. Rekaab similar profile.

I think Heliostatic is the most likely winner and certainly the most likely serious Derby contender. I'd try a forecase with him to lead home Mountain or DT.
 
Leningrad tests Derby credentials


by Paul Binfield (May 13)
LENINGRAD will put his Derby credentials to the test in the Dante Stakes at York on Thursday, when trainer Michael Bell, who won last year's blue riband with Motivator, will discover if his dream of lightning striking twice can continue.

The Montjeu colt, owned by Philip Green - multi-millionaire boss of BHS - and Michael Tabor, was among ten colts at Saturday's forfeit stage for the Totesport-sponsored Dante, won by Motivator last year, and other recent Derby winners North Light (2004), Benny The Dip (1997) and Erhaab (1994).

The field could also include Godolphin's new recruit Palace Episode, winner of last season's Racing Post Trophy, and Michael Jarvis's impressive Newbury maiden winner Hala Bek, who has been inserted 2-1 favourite for the Group 2 event by Ladbrokes.

Leningrad, cut to 20-1 (from 33) by VCbet for the Derby last week, made a winning debutunder Jamie Spencer in a Lingfield maiden last month.

Bell said: "I can't compare him with Motivator at this stage, as Leningrad has won only a maiden. There is no point going for the Derby half-cocked and if he is a Derby horse, we will find out and know our fate next week. I have a high opinion of him, and I think that he will give a good account of himself."

Aidan O'Brien, who has three entries, is likely to rely on Septimus, who was not beaten far in the Prix La Force on his seasonal debut, andwith Kieren Fallon likely to ride, Spencer will continue his association with Leningrad.

Sir Michael Stoute will be represented by Best Alibi, owned by the late Maktoum Al Maktoum, who worked well in Newmarket Saturday morning.

Racing manager BruceRaymond said: "He is just beginning to work well and just coming right. The ground was much too soft for him in the Racing Post Trophy and I would have thought that the step up in trip will be ideal."

Gordon Richards Stakes winner Day Flight is among 14 to stand their ground for Friday's Yorkshire Cup, which is the intended target for Jamie Poulton's Nad Al Sheba winner Land 'n Stars.

Poulton said: "I don't think he gets a yard over two miles and when he won over 12 furlongs in Dubai, he showed he's got more speed than I thought.

"He's on the upgrade but this is a hotter race and if he picks up some place money, I'll be delighted."

The first running of the Glasgow Stakes in Scotland, at Hamilton this Friday, has attracted 16 entries includingthe O'Brien-trained trio of Hurricane Cat, Poseidon Adventure and Puerto Rico.

The Swettenham Stud Fillies' Trial, a recognised Oaks rehearsal, at Newbury the same day has attracted 27 possibles.

DANTE STAKES
Ladbrokes: 2 Hala Bek, 7-2 Septimus, 4 Best Alibi, 6 Palace Episode, 7 Leningrad, 10 The Last Drop
 
Best Prices available at Betfair:

Visindar 37/10
Horatio Nelson 8/1
Hala Bek 10/1
Septimus 14/1
Sir Percy 14/1
Olympian Odyssey 14/1
Dylan Thomas 16/1
Championship Point 20/1
Linda`s Lad 25/1
28s Bar


Some poor prices available here, particulary Olympian Odyssey, Hala Bek and Dylan Thomas. 25s on Linda`s Lad is cracking value.
 
Amazing to think that the winners of all three major Derbies could well come from those listed and Heliostatic.

Not a great year and although it's probably too early to say this without risking being proven an idiot I can't see these beating the likes of Hurricane Run and Scorpion if they've progressed as you'd expect.

While Epsom is certainly not happening (sounds like a line from Clueless, sorry) I wonder if Coolmore would be tempted to run GW at the Curragh under any circumstances.
 
I think it`s harsh to say that it`s a bad year until the race has been run. Horses like Horatio Nelson and Linda`s Lad are bred to thrive over 12f, a lot of people are being very premature in writing off the former in particular.
 
I said they might consider running him in Ireland. If they did have a fair winner at Epsom, presumably it would be HN, they could "fix" the Irish Derby by declaring both he and GW, causing nothing else with any talent to show up and then pull HN the night before leaving a race where GW would barely have to crack 120 to win.

I should be one of those racing manager types. :D

Problem is I don't think they'll have the Epsom winner.
 
Does anyone have any stats for Mr Prospector as a broodmare sire? I know he's the best, or at least used to be, but distance wise, do his mares produce many 12 furlong performers, as I think Visindar's dam is by Mr Prospector.
 
Thanks Gal, I couldn't find anything at all. Forgot the term "broodmare sire" which didn't help. :D
 
Dylan Thomas's dam was a winner over 12f herself and Danehill has shown himself capable of getting stayers when with the right dam. He looks a stayer to me. There has been alot of talk about him this morning.

Been looking at this race this morning and I really think its up to scratch, certainly better than the the earlier Derby trial at Leopardstown.
 
There are a double handful of colts better bred to get the trip than Visindar. Question is do they also have the ability. I've got a short list of six to take on the favourite with at the moment, but haven't made a move for any of them just yet. I suspect that one or two of these may find Visindar out... we'll see.
 
Who's writing the RP spotlights these days? Read this:

This should be a routine piece of work for VISINDAR. He can be expected to totally dominate the final stages of his first Group contest and book his ticket for Epsom in style. In both his races to date the colt has toyed with the opposition and passed the post on his own and there is no reason to believe he won't do the same again in this 10 furlong event. The colt has many outstanding qualities and the ability to accelerate in style when asked is one.

What's this based on? A maiden and a conditions wins? Yesterday they/he said Stormy river had proven himself an outstanding or brilliant 3yo. Talk about oer the top.

There are two horses in Bremen and Zatonic with quite solid form in this. I don't think they'll beat him but if he can trounce him as this writer suggests he deserves to be a short price fave for epsom.
 
Would think this weekend has ensured Septimus will go off much shorter than the current 4/1 available for the Dante?
 
There's something about Septimus I just don't like. Partly due to bombing out in that G1 he was supposed to walk I guess.
 
I presume Desmond Stoneham is the one writing the Spotlight's for the French racing. Cant see Visindar losing tommorrow to be honest, but dont think it will show us anything new...

Gutted about Heliostatic today, he was my main derby hope, something is clearly amiss (other than just my wallet...)
 
Heliostatic obviously did not run to form, but he looked pretty small and unimpressive compared to others in the field.
 
The RP Trophy was his third race in three weeks. I`d be inclined to give him another chance, especially as Sadlers Wells aren`t noted for their two year old careers.

Hypothetical Question: If High Chaparral had run in the 2002 Guineas would he have got any closer to the Rock and HW than Horatio did to George?
 
Almost certainly I would say. Other than the two Arcs for whatever reason, HC just didn't seem to lose. Not saying he'd beat them but wouldn't lose by far.
 
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