Exchanges versus Bookmakers

SlimChance said:
What percentage is the place book? You can't converse because your wrong.
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F**k the Place book. The Place book is a just theoretical concept since you cannot do Place only with the books. To get a Place bet one needs to also stake a Win bet at lower odds than you would get at Betfair.
The over-round on Place-only at Betfair will normally be ~310% (if 8 or more runners) which is fair.

Okay, I promise I'll not converse further as I can see it is a cause of big frustration to you. :o
 
BennyB said:
They shorten the first few in the national before the off to take advantage of the once a year punter who backs at SP. I'm pretty sure nobody here is backing at SP.

For me the main advantage of bookies is ability to take early prices before a betfair market has any liquidity whatsoever.
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Depends on the race and the punter of course but normally there's very little chance of getting matched for decent money AP on Betfair. As far as the National goes I did ok backing Don't Push It on betfair at 60 50 etc and. I backed him months before the race. I was thinking of saying some off and he had been cut to about 12/1 at the course but was still trading around 22 on Betfair so I never bothered which was great for me but those taking SP were being robbed blind.

Every year there's massive gamble many of which have been complete fabrications by the bookies. They decide which horse and start cutting it without taking any serious money and the punters fall for it and start jumping on. Don't push It was the perfect horse JP, AP, JonJo only problem is they messed up and this time the horse won, but the gamble was nothing like they would have you believe.
 
icebreaker said:
F**k the Place book. The Place book is a just theoretical concept since you cannot do Place only with the books. To get a Place bet one needs to also stake a Win bet at lower odds than you would get at Betfair.
The over-round on Place-only at Betfair will normally be ~310% (if 8 or more runners) which is fair.

Okay, I promise I'll not converse further as I can see it is a cause of big frustration to you. :o
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So on the morning of the National which has more positive equity - taking bold type horses e/w with the books or backing them win and place only on the exchanges?
 
This discussion is getting entangled in its various threads.

Clearly there are scenarios in which Betfair wins hands down and occasions where using bookmakers wins hands down.

It's up to punters to make the most of both scenarios.

The savvy punter will know this and won't miss out too much one way or the other but as has been said, if we're talking one-offs like the National then the morning books are extremely competitive while the SPs are criminal but the majority of the once a year punters won't care about that.

Is it any different from the once a year cinema-goer who gets ripped off at the hot dog counter?
 
Agree with slim 100%. Morning prices (if you know what you are doing) beat sp most times. That's my primary goal when betting. And if they don't most bookmakers have best odds guaranteed concessions. You'll not get anything on betfair until hours before a race. Certainly not the night before. By the time you can get a decent bet on the market's matured and there's little value anyway. Unless you have the time to chip away getting your bet on.

Don't forget to deduct the 2%(?) commission per runner in a 40 runner field before comparing the % book versus bookmakers.
 
Your view on this matter will largely be coloured by the type of punter you are.

There is a world of a difference between what a lumpy-bet pro wants/needs, and what a Saturday-afternoon-TV-race punter wants/needs.

I'd be surprised if many of the latter category even had Betfair accounts - or at least, I'd be surprised if they were 'sophisticated' enough as users to play much on the Lay side, look for arb opportunities, etc.

90% of punters probably treat their Betfair account like High Street accounts - and hope that they beat SP with the price they take.
 
As if to prove Grassy's point, and as someone who does not bet,can someone give me a layman's explanation of what arb means ?
 
IMO betfair doesn't cater for either. In terms of odds offered in liquid markets it doesn't compare to bookmakers. I understand that what it does give you is additional functionality - back, lay, back&lay, opportunity for arb. But if the prices aren't good enough in first place then how is that better? I'm not a big stakes player so maybe I'm missing something. I'd ha e thought the fundamentals would be the same though. Find prices which are bigger than they should be.
 
For me, neither are great. Betting mainly on Irish (flat) racing, the Betfair market might as well not exist until an hour before the race and bookmakers treat punters who have even a moderate level of success pretty poorly.

The primary value of Betfair for me comes in monitoring the market and making a note of horses that drift or shorten markedly before the off for reference when looking at the form - especially now that horses are reappearing after winter breaks etc. Take Rocky's Pride last Friday at Dundalk; he drifted (and subsequently ran) as if he had lost a leg on Betfair near the off but you wouldn't have necessarily picked that up from the fixed odds market.
 
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I'm very reluctant to get involved in the in-running betting.

To start with, TV pictures come in a couple of seconds after the live action. Then if you want to make a bet you have to wait 10 seconds for it to be accepted - assuming your computer is up to speed. By the time that happens the complexion of a race might have changed completely.
 
trackside528 said:
For me, neither are great. Betting mainly on Irish (flat) racing, the Betfair market might as well not exist until an hour before the race and bookmakers treat punters who have even a moderate level of success pretty poorly.

The primary value of Betfair for me comes in monitoring the market and making a note of horses that drift or shorten markedly before the off for reference when looking at the form - especially now that horses are reappearing after winter breaks etc. Take Rocky's Pride last Friday at Dundalk; he drifted (and subsequently ran) as if he had lost a leg on Betfair near the off but you wouldn't have necessarily picked that up from the fixed odds market.
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Good use of Betfair there TS - I noted (and put up on a website I write for) a mare in a bumper who IMO there were absolutely no negatives about, she came from a yard which has a brilliant record in such races, had won previously etc. but drifted from 7/2 in the morning to 17 on Betfair at the off. She won but the SP was 7/1 - the drift on the machine was far more marked than the one on the show and in the UK she'd likely have been a 12 or 14's chance.

Always worth looking at Betfair for the horses that seem to drift without any real explanation (preferably followed by a less than positive ride).
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm very reluctant to get involved in the in-running betting.

To start with, TV pictures come in a couple of seconds after the live action. Then if you want to make a bet you have to wait 10 seconds for it to be accepted - assuming your computer is up to speed. By the time that happens the complexion of a race might have changed completely.
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Assuming you have an ok connection Bet365's live stream is only about a second behind watching it live at the track, as opposed to ATR's 8 second or so delay. When I play in running I usually stick 50p win on the favourite just so I can use the live stream. There shouldn't be any delay in placing a bet on horse racing markets in play.
 
Irish Stamp said:
Good use of Betfair there TS - I noted (and put up on a website I write for) a mare in a bumper who IMO there were absolutely no negatives about, she came from a yard which has a brilliant record in such races, had won previously etc. but drifted from 7/2 in the morning to 17 on Betfair at the off. She won but the SP was 7/1 - the drift on the machine was far more marked than the one on the show and in the UK she'd likely have been a 12 or 14's chance.

Always worth looking at Betfair for the horses that seem to drift without any real explanation (preferably followed by a less than positive ride).
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Indeed; a similar thing happened a few weeks back in Dundalk with Gold Falcon. Gambled on his previous start, he was absolutely friendless before the off (Betfair SP 25) and went and won having ran an eye-catching race coming from off a slow pace on his previous run. Needless to say I was put off by the drift and nearly put my arm through a wall.

On a different note, what is this website you are writing for? :cool:
 
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dvds2000 said:
Assuming you have an ok connection Bet365's live stream is only about a second behind watching it live at the track, as opposed to ATR's 8 second or so delay. When I play in running I usually stick 50p win on the favourite just so I can use the live stream. There shouldn't be any delay in placing a bet on horse racing markets in play.
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Why is their such a differential between TV coverage and bet365?
 
granger said:
Why is their such a differential between TV coverage and bet365?
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Who knows, SIS won't reply to people, try asking ATR live on air, see what response you get lol.

People seem to think its so premium charge customers on betfair can get an advantage, which might not be true, but the fact the delay got longer (by about 3 seconds I think) pretty much at the same time the premium charge was introduced does nothing to abate those rumours.

I think its more to do with:
ATR is free
SIS is £20 a day
wheres the advantage of paying for SIS if you can get the exact same service from a free channel?
 
The fact remains anyone using tech at the track - ie the bookies - has a huge advantage.

This game is tough enough without handing them that advantage.

I suppose a football match is a different ball game, so to speak.
 
I use a bot and the price changes are very fast so you get a better idea of how far the video is running behind. Usually it's only a few seconds for me but when it lags it can be a killer.


Where I have done ok in running, is sticking a fiver on so i can watch it then lay it off right away. Then I sit and wait until the race has developed into a 2 or 3 horses race then Dutch on 2 of them. and there might only be 2 to jump. Feels like cheating a bit but pays well.
 
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