Fairyhouse Easter Meeting 2017

Is the obvious alternative if staying at home.

Maybe Sizing John goes for the BHA bonus races, and The Duke goes for the JN Wines/Lexus before the Gold Cup. SJ a better prospect for those sharper tracks.
 
I think the perfect starter for Sizing John is the John Durkan but he may go to Britain to suit Potts better

As an aside, Potts has sent Madison to Monroe to Jessie - one for your notebooks
 
The Turf Club's senior handicapper Noel O'Brien has rated Irish National winner Our Duke just 1lb below this year's Gold Cup winner Sizing John.
Our Duke has been raised a stone to a new mark of 167.
 
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at 167 that mark is still exploitable - granted he'll be only run in graded races from here on in *

* you'd think

**i think he'd make a Grand National horse either
 
Hard to argue against that. Bang in the Gold Cup picture.

I'm trying hard not to keep having more on, whilst the double-figure prices are still knocking about.
 
I know at least two other shrewd judges who agree with me although they might not put it so categorically.

Actually, I've been very well behaved since the end of Lent, too! Yes, I was "aff it" for the duration but am seriously thinking of staying "aff it". I've had a few cans and a couple of glasses of wine but that was because we've had visitors and I was being sociable.

Then again, you maybe have good reason to question my mental health as I'm still seriously thinking of giving up betting altogether thanks to those arseholes at the RP making life so difficult for me :(
 
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Not having it, DO.

UTPT isn't in the same league as Might Bite or Our Duke, and has nothing like their potential, imo. Hard to crab they way connections campaign him though - they certainly maximise his opportunities.

Giving up betting just because the people who run the RP are arseholes (you will get no argument regarding that description from me), seems a bit extreme. There is surely a way to sort your spreadsheet dilemma, using a different utility??
 
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granger said:
you won't last without it.
Click to expand...

Seriously, granger, I'm single-minded enough to know that if I give up on something I don't look back. I can be extremely cold in that regard. I learned years ago - the hard way - not to get emotionally embroiled in anything.

I don't have an addictive personality otherwise I'd probably be dead by now!

I've already discussed giving up form studying with my wife. She's been on at me for years for the amount of time I spend on it and she'd vowed to use my old form books for my funeral pyre - and she was only half-joking - but when I suggested I felt like giving it up she was horrified. I know when she's faking and this time she wasn't faking.

There are so many things I could happily spend time on: golf, snooker, property, seeing the country. I just enjoy the mental gymnastics involved in form study - or at least I have done for years but the RP is killing it for me. When I'm not studying the form I'm doing the Times crossword but I know I should be out walking more or going to the gym but I'm rather tied at home with an elderly mother-in-law to look after and the form helps me deal with that.

I haven't ruled out out moving to Spain either. I'd happily ditch the form if the move became feasible.
 
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The UTPT form is every bit as good as Native River this season. Might Bite and Our Duke may well improve past him, and you'd like to think they would, but at the moment there's nothing in it. On the same basis Singlefarmpayment should also improve next season and he's one for the Hennessy. Sizing John would be vulnerable in a truly run Gold Cup, although I don't want to crab his victory. It'd be interesting to see him and Might Bite in the King George. And of course Thistlecrack will come back as a second season chaser next season, with this seasons experience under his belt, and a three way between them at Kempton could be a race to savour. It all makes for a very competitive division and one to really look forward to. I certainly wouldn't be writing off UTPT so easily though as I also have him right in the mix.
 
Again, not having it, Paul.

NR won the Hennessy off 155 and did it in much more convincing style than UTPT in the Ultima. He then won a Welsh Nash off the same mark (again looking equally convincing), before trotting-up in a G2 and finishing 3rd in a Gold Cup.

UTPT has been well-placed by Pipe, but scrambling home off 153 in the Ultima, isn't remotely near the same level as Native River, imo. For context, they have met three times over fences, with NR beating UTPT 19L in the Hennessy, 14L in the Mildmay, and 4L (conceding 7lbs) as a novice in the Worcester.

You presumably have some magic-beans at your disposal, if you can make the figures produce "nothing in it". :cool:

Edit: Also worth pointing out that both Might Bite and Our Duke are already rated higher than UTPT. It's acknowledged that the ORs are just an expression of an opinion, but the "improve past him" bit isn't valid where MB and OD are concerned. They are already conclusively better than UTPT, in my view.
 
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I'm with Grass. I just don't see him finding the extra few lbs he needs. A high class handicapper certainly, top class open company, he has to prove it to me

Sizing John, Our Duke, Might Bite~, Yorkhill ~~~ expect them to all improve a few lbs for next season
 
Of those that have been out since the Ultima......

The 3rd was beaten 19L in the Irish Nash.

The 5th was beaten 83L at Aintree.

The 6th was a faller in the Nash.

The 9th was beaten 43L in the Irish Nash.

The 13th was beaten 48L in the Irish Nash.

The 15th was beaten 33L at Aintree.

I'm not suggesting this is conclusive, but I think your optimism lacks a little foundation, tbh.
 
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I agree. I thought Singlefarmpayment off 142 with his optimum conditions was as near a handicap certainty as you can get at the Festival since M Pipe retired. I can't believe that anything other than a high class beast could give him nearly a stone and a beating.
 
Adjusted for weight, the first four home in the Ultima have basically run to about a pound or two either side of their respective handicap marks.

From a form perspective, it's a solid race, but it is what it is i.e. Grade 3 level, and it's unwise to crack it up as something it's not.

To suggest the winner is a better horse than either Might Bite or Our Duke, is complete fantasy. I'm sorry.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Adjusted for weight, the first four home in the Ultima have basically run to about a pound or two either side of their respective handicap marks.
Click to expand...

Would you mind elaborating on your calculation methods, GH?

You've got me curious that I might be doing something seriously wrong all these years.
 
I will try to explain what I meant.

UTPT and SFP have self-evidently run as the handicapper expected they would (his job is to try and manufacture a dead-heat) and Noble Endeavour is only 3lbs off where the Handicapper expected him to finish. That's the point I was trying to get across, though I could perhaps have worded my previous post more elegantly/clearly.

OK, Buywise is well off, so I'll give you that. My bad - it's been a busy morning. :lol:



Now.......if you think UTPT has improved past his 153 rating in the Ultima, that's fine. It's a fair enough position to adopt, and the handicapper agrees with you (has put him up a half-stone).

Equally, if you want to back UTPT for the Gold Cup, that's fine too, as you clearly see some prospect for even more improvement.

And if you think UTPT is already a better horse than both Might Bite and Our Duke, that is also fine.

I just happen to disagree with all of these assertions, and I think it's perfectly fair to call them out, when statements like "will eat them for breakfast" are bandied-about. For my money, it runs-down what Might Bite and Our Duke have achieved, and needs tempered.

No dispute here - just a difference of opinion. :cool:
 
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Is it the greatest bunch of novices in history? Highest average rating of the top 5? Must be close.
 
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Tell you next year Hawk Wing.

definitely three above average novices anyway.

This JP/ Willie Mulins mad thing over 2m which will see at Punchestown is another nutter.

year of the loons bar Our Duke who is old school
 
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