Fairyhouse Easter Meeting 2017

Grasshopper said:
I will try to explain what I meant.

UTPT and SFP have self-evidently run as the handicapper expected they would (his job is to try and manufacture a dead-heat) and Noble Endeavour is only 3lbs off where the Handicapper expected him to finish. That's the point I was trying to get across, though I could perhaps I could have worded my previous post more elegantly/clearly.

OK, Buywise is well off, so I'll give you that. My bad - it's been a busy morning. :lol:



Now.......if you think UTPT has improved past his 153 rating in the Ultima, that's fine. It's a fair enough position to adopt, and the handicapper agrees with you (has put him up a half-stone).

Equally, if you want to back UTPT for the Gold Cup, that's fine too, as you clearly see some prospect for even more improvement.

And if you think UTPT is already a better horse than both Might Bite and Our Duke, that is also fine.

I just happen to disagree with all of these assertions, and I think it's perfectly fair to call them out, when statements like "will eat them for breakfast" are bandied-about. For my money, it runs-down what Might Bite and Our Duke have achieved, and needs tempered.

No dispute here - just a difference of opinion. :cool:
Click to expand...

No problem. We obviously assess things differently, which is pretty much what it's supposed to be all about.

The basic premise I work from - and no condescending or patronising intended - is that the handicapper's aim to get the whole field to finish in a dead-heat. Therefore I want to be able to draw an imaginary line across the track at where that dead-heat should have been. Obviously in 99% of cases the winner of a handicap will be better than the handicapper has rated him. As we work back through the field [at the finish] at what point do we get to the horse(s) that has/have run closest to their ratings.

My basic contention is that the better or more valuable the handicap the more likely it is that the winner is further ahead of the handicapper. I learned that very quickly in the early days of my studying when I didn't really take the class of race into account. Most of my punting success is in handicaps and until this poor season for me on the betting front I was, if anything, doing better year on year as my analysis got better and better.

My belief is that in the very best handicaps the imaginary dead-heat line is well down the field. I honestly reckon in such a race a horse can run to its OR and still only finish 12th or 13th or worse.

I'll watch the lead-up to the Ultima again as I haven't done so since before Aintree but I'd almost guarantee someone said something about UTPT not being able to win because a] he was 7lbs higher than last season and/or b] he was top weight.

I had gone very high with his form the year before and had him highly rated and ahead of what it takes to win a normal running of the race. The only ones above him were Holywell (since retired) and Henri Parry Morgan (disappointing so far). I was expecting improvement some improvement as he appeared to have been laid out for the race but feared Singlefarmpayment, Buywise on his best form and any improvement from Go Conquer and The Druids Nephew.

The big risk I've taken in evaluating the form is in taking Buywise as running to his best form. This was because he didn't make any mistakes of note, held a reasonable [for him] position through the race and ran on well up the hill. It looked to me like the form then made a lot of sense even though the figures were very high. I was very aware of that but it's the kind of thing that has paid off in spades in the past.

I then went down the "take ... out" route.

Take out UTPT and we have SFP landing one of the gambles of the meeting. Take out both of them and we have Noble Endeavor franking the form of Native River, Vicente, etc and the Irish National. Take all three out and we have Buywise celebrating a return to his best. Take him out too and we have a progressive - possible job - horse in Go Conquer dishing out a hiding to the two Mulholland horses and Theatre Guide. It all looked so solid.

I don't deny there's an element of risk in going so high but if I hadn't gone so high with the race the year before I'd never have had UTPT as a bet in the race. These are the decisions our betting prospers or dies by. I have to say this season I'm getting a lot wrong but I'm my own biggest critic and I don't think my ratings are the problem. It's my selection process. I'm narrowing it down to likely winners and backing the wrong ones. I got it right going into this race so I'm reasonably happy to conclude that I'm not far wrong coming out of it.

I fully expect Singlefarmpayment to win or go very close in the Hennessy. I think I'm right in saying he's gone up 4lbs for this. I reckon his natural improvement will take him past that level. Alternatively, they might want to preserve his mark for the Grand National. He'll just about get in off 146 next year. If they went down that route with him he'd be one of my all-time biggest bets in the race. However, I reckon Native River set an interesting precedent this season in winning the Hennessy before getting to run unpenalised in the Welsh National. That's two huge pots and a tempting alternative to Aintree.

Different strokes for different folks and all that, I suppose, but UTPT is a Grade 1 staying hurdler who is relatively unexposed over fences because they've targeted the Ultima at this stage in his career. I suspect, though, that they won't aim for the Gold Cup with him other than as a prep for Aintree. Then again, they'd be entitled to fear significant improvement, relative to UTPT, from Singlefarmpayment through next season.

PS - I admit 'eat them for breakfast' was a bit OTT :)
 
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A very honest and illuminating reply, DO - thanks.

I had started a rather long post in reply (just giving my perspective on handicapping at the top-end of the scale) but managed to delete the ba*stard in its entirety, before I posted it!

I'll have another bash in the morning, when I'm not limited to using my sodding phone.
 
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DO, after giving it some thought, I actually think we have very similar approaches in terms of how we assess horses, and we may just have a difference of opinion as regards UTPT. Referring to an earlier post of yours regarding how you give horses separate ratings for handicaps and non-handicaps, I think this is relevant, and might help explain my position. I’ll do my best anyway.

When we look at horses near the top-end of the scale, the margins between G3 and G1 horses are quite small, from a strict numbers perspective. For me, it’s at this point, that a less definable, aspect come into play - namely, class.

Class is such a nebulous concept, it’s very difficult to explain it adequately, and of course it is open to a lot of personal interpretation too, but I’ll do my best to articulate my definition, by using some practical examples.

Let’s use Top Notch as a first case-study.

Here is a horse who has run Yorkhill to a length in the JLT, but in my view, that 1-length differential between the pair, does not accurately reflect Yorkhill’s class superiority. Top Notch is a horse I can see win a Peterborough Chase when he is in open company next season. And despite his size, I could see him run well under a big-weight in the two big 2m5f handicap-chases at Cheltenham before Xmas. But I can’t ever see him winning a Ryanair Chase, because - despite his proximity to Yorkhill over the C&D - I just don’t believe he has the class to win that level of race (i.e. properly-contested Grade 1). I have no such reservations about Yorkhill.

I’d probably now have Native River in a similar bracket. I had hoped he would have the class to win the Gold Cup, but now reckon he isn’t quite at that level, despite being beaten only a couple of lengths by Sizing John. Again, NR is one with a high-rating (only a pound behind the Gold Cup winner), and one who I’d expect to run well under stopping-weights in major handicaps, and who could easily pick-up a Grade 2 (another Denman Chase) along the way. But I no longer think he has the required class to win a Betfair or a Gold Cup. After reviewing the available evidence, there is something missing from his make-up, that will allow him to bridge that gap.

To bring all this back to the original discussion, I’d view UTPT the same way as I do the above-named pair. For me, there just hasn’t been any indication that he has the required class, to suddenly become a Grade 1 horse. I have no such reservations about Might Bite or Our Duke - not only because they have already proven their level as novices, but because both have that undefinable ‘something’ about them, that isn’t necessarily reflected in their ratings (high as they are anyway).

To be honest, I’m not sure whether this will make any sense to anyone but me, but after such a comprehensive reply from yourself, I felt a duty to try and articulate my position in a little more depth. It hopefully gives you at least a little insight into my thinking, and my position on UTPT.
 
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Great posting in the last day or 2 on this thread

My own view is very similar to Grassy's.

I always always look for a horse that has that something also - it's far from a science and like any approach has its merits and drawbacks but it's what works best for me

I have looked at Our Duke's running again and given his inexperience am blown away by the ease of which he done things

UPPT just doesn't give me that feel but I look forward to his attempts at proving me wrong
 
As DO knows, independently I took an identical approach to the Ultima, and we came out with near identical figures, which is why I too believe UTPT is in the mix for the Gold Cup. My enthusiasm is tempered slightly by his two Festival victories being on the other course, but I have him on rating that would have seen him place in this seasons Gold Cup.

Of course we've got the likes of Might Bite, Yorkhill, and Our Duke coming through as second season chasers, who with improvement may surpass this seasons form, but in the case of the first two they are not entirely straightforward, and I can't think of a single Gold Cup winner that fits their mould of quirkiness. At this moment Our Duke interests me the most of the three, unless Might Bite drops his headstrong tendencies, and Yorkhill learns how to jump a fence.

I'm also treating this seasons Gold Cup with caution as they went through much of the race in a dawdle and it was set up perfectly for Sizing John. The likes of Native River and possibly more so Djakadam definitely didn't have the race run to suit. Of course there's nothing to say that next years edition won't be run the same way, but I think it's unlikely. That being so it would be a perfect race for a horse like UTPT to pick up the pieces, admittedly more likely running into a place at a big price than winning.
 
Echo what Hawk Wing posted; top stuff posted here; pity the season is nearly over.
With all the young horses coming through that are neither Giggi nor Ricci the future is bright.
Thistlecrack is the oldest of the brigade; Djakadam could be 25/1 for next year's Gold Cup depending how he performs next week yet has done little wrong and will only be 9.
As i posted before if the racing folk are serious about keeping Kempton Park open they have the raw material both sides of the pond for Classic King George chases for the next few years with the horses currently around so it their time to put their collective shoulders to the wheel for all our sakes.
 
I know this relates to punchestown next week, but does anyone know if Fox Norton is an intended runner next week. If so 11/2 looks a huge ew price to me.

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