Fairyhouse Weekend

Tanlic said:
Oh come on man..She wasn't fast enough? She was fast enough to come from a crap position AFTER they had quickened up but wasn't fast enough to go through a gap when she was cruising?.......That makes absolutely no sense at all....There's everything to suggest if Ruby didn't have to kick the sh!t out of her to get her on levels at the last he'd have won easily..........Did you even watch the race?
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No I haven't watched the race, I gave such details by dreaming of the race.

To amateur eyes it might look like she applied speed on the home turn but in fact she was just staying on at the same speed while the others were slowly tiring down. The gap she missed was at the 2 mile marker, the gap lasted about 3 seconds and Ruby clearly wanted to overcome Shaneshill at the time who was on the inside but without having the necessary speed IG forced VVM out of it.
 
On her first run back VVM gets beaten a short head by a race fit battle hardened genuine Grade 1 mare who fought back like grade 1 horses do.
The 4 lbs on that faster ground is as much culprit as Ruby, not that it should be changed any time as grey said above.
 
VVM lacked nothing in fitness (check her fto record) and Apple's Jade (as a 4yo) is much more likely to find further improvement.
The notion that making up less than 3l, over the last 3f of a steadily run 2.5m race, exhausted VVM is risible.
 
I think one could argue that so far VVM has been able to win FTO because she was in a position to outclass her fields despite not being 100% race fit.

I wouldn't be surprised if she came on a good bit for her run at the weekend and I'm in the camp that says Ruby got it wrong but Apples Jade strikes me as having been brought along this season with a view to peaking in the spring and could well also come on quite a bit for the other day.

I think VVM's ceiling is potentially lower than Apples Jade's.
 
What I find risible was Patrick Mullins comments on her being the most versatile horse in training, when they have a horse like Faugheen in their yard who they refuse to take back chasing. He was doing fine over PTP fences, his breeder had him as a chaser but they keep him as a hurdler. Faugheen is favourite for WH and CH, if they send him now for a novice chase he'll be made short odds for the CC and GC, and yet he claims that VVM is the most versatile. But I do think that VVM future lies over the big obstacles as she has more scope than going toe to toe against the 2 milers over timber.
 
Personally think it's more a case of VVM not actually being as good as her reputation/the noise around her. Her best piece of form is beating Identity Thief a length - a nice run no doubt, and a run that marks her down as a very good horse, but for me not one on the same level as Faugheen, Annie and even Nichols Canyon.
 
granger said:
[Campeador's] card is sort of marked now. He will be sore tomorrow but interesting to see what the handicapper does with him.

Big handicap in him if he can win his battle with gravity
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He's been put up 6lbs with the eventual winner Waxies Dargle up 4lbs.

Phil smith must be scratching his head.

These megavalue handicaps take a hell of a lot of winning precisely because 90% of the contenders are considered very well handicapped by connections so it follows that the winner must be really well in.

Should Campeador or Waxies Dargle be entered over here for the Schweppes or County I'd expect their UK rating to be a lot higher than the average 6lbs differential between Irish and UK ratings.

Campeador looks a bit of a good thing for that big one in Ireland (ex-Sweeps/Ladbroke/Pierse/whatever - I've lost track of its sponsors) in early January?
 
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I was looking for a price for the Champion Hurdle for him but he isn't quoted outside of the exchanges and they're giving nothing away.

I think he's almost certainly a better hurdler than the likes of The New One and could easily be placed in an ordinary year. Whether this will be an ordinary year I'm not so sure.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I was looking for a price for the Champion Hurdle for him but he isn't quoted outside of the exchanges and they're giving nothing away.

I think he's almost certainly a better hurdler than the likes of The New One and could easily be placed in an ordinary year. Whether this will be an ordinary year I'm not so sure.
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Try request it - books will accommodate you to some extent
 
Desert Orchid said:
I was looking for a price for the Champion Hurdle for him but he isn't quoted outside of the exchanges and they're giving nothing away.

I think he's almost certainly a better hurdler than the likes of The New One and could easily be placed in an ordinary year. Whether this will be an ordinary year I'm not so sure.
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Bet365 have him at 50-1 this morning
 
I got smashed into for suggesting he'd be one of the only dangers to Altior if he can jump........Gawd help you for suggesting such a thing DO lol

Jonjo once said "There's no such a thing as a bad Champion Hurdle" the must have missed Sublimity but in some respects he's right.

They always look easy scanning the AP market but somehow on the day at the post it all looks very different.

Who knows how many will be thinking the same thing as what might be on the minds of The New One's connections.

The problem is..what if WPM runs both Annie Power and Faugheen and Yorkhill add Yanworth and Apples Jade and suddenly it's a lot more competitive.

Or don't add them all and the New One scrapes home in the International and as they suggested they would if that were the case send him straight over fences.

Lotta ifs but that's why he's 50's I suppose
 
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I don't imagine Campeador will go down the CH route this season as he's only 4yo at the moment so they might just try to exploit a winning handicap mark.

However, I do believe he is a mid-160s horse either already or waiting to happen.

Much will depend, I suppose, on how the other JP hurdlers are progressing.

It looks like Yanworth's change of plan is down to the regard in which Unowhatimeanharry is held. That looks like a tip in itself.
 
I've taken the pennies available on Betfair at the longest odds, aggregate 86.44.

Don't imagine it'll ever be rewarded, though.
 
Tanlic said:
I got smashed into for suggesting he'd be one of the only dangers to Altior if he can jump........Gawd help you for suggesting such a thing DO lol

Jonjo once said "There's no such a thing as a bad Champion Hurdle" the must have missed Sublimity but in some respects he's right.

They always look easy scanning the AP market but somehow on the day at the post it all looks very different.

Who knows how many will be thinking the same thing as what might be on the minds of The New One's connections.

The problem is..what if WPM runs both Annie Power and Faugheen and Yorkhill add Yanworth and Apples Jade and suddenly it's a lot more competitive.

Or don't add them all and the New One scrapes home in the International and as they suggested they would if that were the case send him straight over fences.

Lotta ifs but that's why he's 50's I suppose
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He was talking about Campeador you nugget.
 
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