Festival Ante-Post Portfolio

Backed last night in the handicaps with a view to trade or part trade:

Southfield Royale 20/1 ew Kim Muir
Champers on Ice 16/1 Kim Muir
Project Bluebook 16/1 Fred Winter
Bouvreuil 16/1 Plate

Also a speculative each way treble on Southfield Royale, Project Bluebook, and Bouvreuil.
 
Double J said:
Moon Racer - Champ Hurdle - 40/1 single

Senewalk - Supreme
Min - Arkle
Annie Power - Champ Hurdle - Treble

Thistlecrack - Gold Cup
Buvuer D'air - Arkle
Apples Jade - Champ Hurdle
Alpha Des Obeaux - RSA
Lucky 15

VVM - Mares
Annie Power - Champ Hurdle
Yorkhill - JLT
Treble

Alpha Des - RSA
Moon Racer - Supreme
Double

Probably stay away now till the actual week of the festival.
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With what I have above (all gone to ****) I lied and added a lot more.

Singles:
Mite Bite - 9/1 - RSA
Champers On Ice - 16s - National Hunt
Neon Wolf - 12s - Neptune
Don Poli - 33s 25s - Gold Cup
Sizing John - 33s Gold Cup

5fold
Altior - 4/6 - Arkle
Douvan 1/3 - QMCC
Thistlecrack - 6/4 - GC
Mite Bite - 9/2 - RSA
Apples Jade - 7/4 - Mares

Lucky 15
North Hill Harvey - 12s - County
Death Duty - 9/4 - AB
Sizing John - 33s - GC
Paint The Clouds - 20s - Foxhunter

Various others which include Yorkhill for the JLT and Sizing John for the Ryanair, mainly in multiples.

Ones posted above are the only ones left with a chance. Really need Mite Bite to win so I'm at least level after the AP bets.

Injuries have cost me a fortune, as has the decision to run Sizing John in the Gold Cup (unless he wins)
 
JamesRB said:
Supreme :
Senewalk at 10s....yeah go on laugh. i fully deserve it :lol:
Melon at 7s (clearly not learnt my lesson here)

Arkle :
Altior 5s
Min 6s

All 4 are each way

And that's it for the time being. Finding it hard this year but my book will probably swell somewhat over the next 6 weeks.

I also did a skybet 'special' yesterday. Unowhatimeanharry, Defi Du Seuil & Thistlecrack all to place (3 places) at 7/1. Seemed good value and indeed they've shortened it since then. Actually let me have a meaningful stake on as well. :blink:
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Mares Novice Hurdle :
Airlie Beach 7/2
 
update

Supreme :
Senewalk at 10s e/w
Melon at 7s e/w
Neon Wolf 7s and 8s e/w (nrnb)

Arkle :
Altior 5s e/w
Min 6s e/w

Champion Hurdle :
Buvuer D'air 5s e/w (nrnb)

RSA :
Might Bite 9/2

Cross Country :
Cause of Causes 10s (nrnb)

JLT :
Yorkhill 5/2 nrnb

Mares Novice Hurdle :
Airlie Beach 7/2
Lets Dance 4s and 5s

seem to have an issue where's i've got multiple horses in certain races but the prices aren't bad for the most part
 
Supreme:

Charli Parcs 22s :(
Neon Wolf 6s NRNB

Arkle:
Buv 12s :(
Min 7s :(

Ultima:
Singlefarmpayment 14s NRNB

CH:
Yanworth 10s
Buv 9/2 NRNB
L'ami Serge 33s :ninja:

NHC:
Arpage D'alene 16s

Neptune:
MDO 14s
Neon Wolf 4s NRNB

RSA:
Barter's Hill 20s :(
Champers on Ice 33s :(
ADO 16s

QM:
Sir Valentino (w/o fav) 16s

JLT:
Buv 12S :(
Coney Island 26s :(:(

Ryanair:
Sizing John 20s :(
Black Hercules 14s :(
Sub Lieutenant 20s

Stayers:
Shaneshill 18s
Snow Falcon 16s
Unowhatimeanharry 4s

Kim Muir:
Singlefarmpayment 12s NRNB

Gold Cup:
Djakadam 10s
Sizing John (place only) 10s
Outlander 10s

Grand Annual:
Vaniteux 16s NRNB

Plenty of :('s but the possies I have on 'harry, Djakadam, ADO and Yanworth compensate.
 
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Very little to report from me this year so this won't take long:

Presenting Percy 33/1 E/W (even though he's now down to 8/1 Jf, I wasn't best pleased to see him winning a handicap the weekend before the weights came out and therefore being allotted joint top weight)

Mall Dini 16/1 Ultima (12s nrnb)

Le Prezien (25/1 E/W Arkle
(Please don't go for the Grand Annual!)
 
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blimey this reads like a script from a horror show
i'm balls deep on Altior/Douvan/unowhatimeanharry
Altior/Douvan/unowhatimeanharry/yorkhill
and 1 or more horses per race added to these 3 and 4 folds all nrnb (crap prices compared to those posted above
only non nrnb bets were/are unowhatimeanharry at 6's and thistlecrack at 8's
 
Added Disko at 5s with the two firms who are offering money back if your horse loses on the the first race each day.
 
I currently have 93 Open Bets on the Festival, and that's just with B365, so I'm probably up around the 140 mark, in terms of individual ante-post bets.

I'd say there are maybe 25% of them which are already write-offs, or are compromised to the extent that they basically should be written-off. The remainder are all generally either in decent shape, or are covered under NRNB where a run looks doubtful.
 
took the 4/1 offer with skybet about altior/douvan/harry as it feels like i'll have the latter running for me at 4/1 on the thursday. sadly wasn't allowed a great deal on.
 
Grasshopper said:
I currently have 93 Open Bets on the Festival, and that's just with B365, so I'm probably up around the 140 mark, in terms of individual ante-post bets.

I'd say there are maybe 25% of them which are already write-offs, or are compromised to the extent that they basically should be written-off. The remainder are all generally either in decent shape, or are covered under NRNB where a run looks doubtful.
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Jeez... I thought I was in unusually heavily with 27 bets [gross] covering a total of 13 horses, most of which are NRNB and some of which are no-risk bets having laid off at shorter than taken. Overall, I'm not unhappy with most of them.
 
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I've probably covered 20-something horses in these bets, DO.

Impossible to lost them all (or at least, it's an impossible concept that I would go to the trouble of listing them all), but I'll list my best half-dozen bets, when I get a chance.
 
JamesRB said:
took the 4/1 offer with skybet about altior/douvan/harry as it feels like i'll have the latter running for me at 4/1 on the thursday. sadly wasn't allowed a great deal on.
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Is this still available??? Can't see any sign of it on the website

Sent from my SM-G360F using Tapatalk
 
Backed Mohaayed e/w earlier NRNB for The County. Biggest anti-post bet so far for me. I fancy the horse so had to take my chance given its his only entry and it was NRNB
 
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Marble said:
Backed Mohaayed e/w earlier NRNB for The County. Biggest anti-post bet so far for me. I fancy the horse so had to take my chance given it was NRNB
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Bollox, still entered in the Supreme. Hopefully they scratch him on Monday.
 
I love playing the AntePost Game and over the years, whatever the outcome, it has given me a lot of enjoyment and the additional buzz of hope and anticipation has significantly enhanced my festival experience. As several have said the game has changed substantially in recent years. Many more horses with multiple options, more leading trainers making very late decisions, a lot more, sometimes fake, information and more tech driven bookies have created a tighter market in which it has become a job of work rather than a sporting pastime. The rewards are less and the betting much more restrictive.
Last year was definitely not one of my better attempts which made me determined to reassess my strategy. Before doing that I had a fair bet at 25's on Shantou Village to win the RSA.That's gone south and probably wouldn't have run in that race if it had turned up! I needed to change!
One thing that I had noticed was that, whether betting AP or on the day, my long term hit rate backing short priced horse was far worse than when backing horses 4's or more. Weird and worrying because I generally put down more money when prices are short. Easy to remedy. I also had a far too many in the wrong race or not running at all. The solution is a) avoid stables where horses are multi entered and decisions made at a late stage e.g.WPM.,b) wait till the season develops i.e. January and if necessary NRNB. Backing only at a worthwhile EW price and not reducing stake automatically. I've reverted to my former position that if I think a horse can/will win then 20/1 is a better bet than 5/1.
Backing horses based on trial races is something I certainly give consideration to, if I expect a horse to win a trial or test race, then I will take a price for the Target race. If it does win then I might follow up. Leopardstown last month certainly seemed to provide potential ammunition The result of this policy can be seen in the wide range of prices I've taken for several hopes. I have only bet on 2 of the handicaps so far (multi entries and if the trainer doesn't know what hope have I). In one case the trainer was pretty certain his would take a given route and tother is where imo the horse should/could have won the same race last year.

Politilogue JLT 12/1-Hopeful Solid
Jezki Stayers 14/1 -My old mate - beat the Fly- have to but concerned at LTO
Ask the Weatherman-12/1- Foxhunters'. Forum pointed me here. OTF did look imperious LTO though!
Someday-Bumper- 16/1 Impressed with attitude at Leopardstown -replaced Daphne de Clos-ouch!
Bristol de Mai- 33/1 All over this in open GC. DO's recommendation at fault for over exposure
Sizing John-33/1 Pre-trial bet at L'town. Perfect counter to BDM in open Gold Cup Either one nice.
Movewiththetimes Supreme 8/1 LTO impressed me
Bless the Wings X Country16/1 Weight turnaround with favourite. Cause of Causes big threat.
Romain de Semain 8/1 Close Bros. I normally do well in this race- not my most confident choice
Mater Blueyes 12/1 Triumph Powerful and the right type for this race.





 
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Tout Seul said:
Bristol de Mai- 33/1 All over this in open GC. DO's recommendation at fault for over exposure
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Just out of curiosity... chicken and egg thing... did you already fancy/back it before I mentioned it?

I thought it was real value at 14/1 when I started backing it so could hardly let it go once it went out to 33/1 NRNB!!

I have a total of 1.5pts ew at 33s and 25s and 1.5pts win at 16s/14s. That's quite a heavy involvement for me but I'm not in the least worried about the value side of things although I would be happier if I could lay off all of the win portions at 10s or less nearer the day. That might be pie in the sky but when Definitly Red can end up a 159 [OR] horse and BDM is at least 22lbs better (line arguably tenuous but, hey) and Otago Trail can pish up by miles etc etc....
 
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I liked what I saw at Haydock and had a little dabble but at Cheltenham on Trials day I decided that Thistlecrack was not going to win Gold Cup this year ( though maybe next!). Immediately after the race gave my view when asked and found myself dismissing most of the fancied contenders. Alighted on BDM and didn't dismiss though caveat re going. Ball rolling! Given SJ's performance at L'town at the price a perfect pairing with BDM to cover possible conditions.
 
Euronymous said:
Added Disko at 5s with the two firms who are offering money back if your horse loses on the the first race each day.
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Added:

Road to Respect Ultima 16s. (His mark is 5lbs lower than Diamond King who is too short for his engagement.)

Might Bit RSA 4s (good cover for ADO, his price is now wrong, race has little depth)

Monalee AB 9s (Found it interesting that his trainer thinks he'll be more effective on good ground)
 
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