Festival - Best and Worst Value

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
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Seven weeks out, where is the smart and the mug money going?

Best:
Mikael D'Haguenet - 16s for the RSA.
You've gotta respect the market leader for this race and obviously part of the reason MDH is this price is because it's a bit up in the air as to whether or not he'll run. But there has been a massive over-reaction to his poor run last time out where he looked a prime victim of bounce syndrome and remain confident this horse is going to the top.

Worst:
Poquelin - 5s for the Ryanair.
He was beaten in the race last year, isn't as good as Tranquil Sea or Albertas Run and this will be a tougher renewal if the likes of Riverside Theatre, Kalahari King and Somersby take part. Price based on his trainer and a baffling over rating of a very hum drum handicap he won last time out.
 
Best:
Finian's Rainbow at 6s in the Arkle
He is classy, a good jumper and has done enough to be 6/1 in the Arkle in a normal year. The paucity of opposition is the main thing that makes him value, as there are bugger all horses in the betting that I see as being anywhere near top standard. I make him a 5/2 shot, and I think he will start off around there. I respect Ghizao, who is also too long for the same reasons.

Worst:
Denman at 9/1 for the Gold Cup. I'm sorry Denman fans, but it is game over.
 
Best
Sparky May @ 8/1 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle.
Unbeaten in three starts over hurdles, narrowly beaten in a bumper by a useful performer and remained unbeaten over hurdles when taking her record to 4 from 4 when defeating Carole's Legacy at Ascot on Saturday in relatively impressive fashion (despite tieing up late on). The race in general is weak and of the principals Quevega looks the one to beat, I'd have doubts about the hill with VLV whilst Tarla is apparently out for the season, Morning Supreme has been racing over fences this season and will surely run elsewhere whilst Our Girl Salley has been impressive (less so on her most recent start) in mares hurdles in Ireland. I'd imagine she'd have to beat 2 of the 4 (VLV, Morning Supreme, Our Girl Salley and Tarla) to land the money and with doubts surrounding 2 of them that looks very possible.
 
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As I see it Denman only has Imperial Commander to beat (and I have doubts about that one). So I have to see the 12s (that I've taken) and the 9/1 on offer as nothing other than epic value for a horse that on the big day is only likely to be a fraction off his best. He must be solid for a place return, as he was last time.

A lot of bad value about for the Festival... too much to single out. Look elsewhere than Denman for that though.
 
Euronymous said:
Seven weeks out, where is the smart and the mug money going?

Best:
Mikael D'Haguenet - 16s for the RSA.
You've gotta respect the market leader for this race and obviously part of the reason MDH is this price is because it's a bit up in the air as to whether or not he'll run. But there has been a massive over-reaction to his poor run last time out where he looked a prime victim of bounce syndrome and remain confident this horse is going to the top.

Worst:
Poquelin - 5s for the Ryanair.
He was beaten in the race last year, isn't as good as Tranquil Sea or Albertas Run and this will be a tougher renewal if the likes of Riverside Theatre, Kalahari King and Somersby take part. Price based on his trainer and a baffling over rating of a very hum drum handicap he won last time out.
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The running plans mapped out for MdH are the key to the bet above - is he running in that 2m4 race Cooldine won a few years back? If yes, I would agree as clearly he doesn't have the pace for 2m. I have said elsewhere I am not a huge fan of MdH over fences but there is very little for this race aside from Time for Rupert (whose connections are making a mistake running him Saturday).

Agree about Poquelin, though I would say Tranquil Sea only has a small chance, and Kalahari King needs to start running now.
 
I would love to believe MdH was value for something. But with things so up in the air about him, not least as to how good he might be and that he has been introduced into World Hurdle betting I haven't a clue as to whether he's value for anything.
 
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Not sure about best value, but in terms of worst value -

Lacdoudal at 8/1 for the Cross Country - he's almost certainly out for a year if not more.

Woolcombe Folly at 6/1 for the Champion Chase - what has he actually done?
 
Woolcombe Folly's form is not a million miles different to that of French Opera's at this stage last season and he would have been any multiple of WF's price.
 
Supreme: Spirit Son 20/1. I only see him getting shorter, and fits into the could be anything bracket. What with the weight allowance and the ease of victory, his form isn't that far off Backspin's Bangor effort.

Arkle: Finian's Rainbow 6/1. As per Bar the Bull's post. Big bet at those odds.

Cross Country: Garde Champetre 5/1: The biggest price I could possibly see him starting is 3s (I would guess his SP will be 9/4), and he lost nothing in defeat to Lacdoudal a few months back.

Ryanair Chase: J'Y Vole 12/1 and Albertas Run 16/1. Placed and winner of this last year, and J'y Vole quite unlucky (Ruby deserved a ban and acted the langer, imho). Lovely mare who I think should be spot on and will thrive on the better ground. Big fancy.
 
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I'm usually on the money in the Ryanair, but it seems to be an incredibly difficult race to call this year at this stage.
 
750/20 for a Kauto Star and Master Minded double.

Ignorant of current form, blinded by past successes and gross over-simplification. Almost certainly. Big odds though.
 
Best Value - Sunnyhillboy 16/1 William Hill Trophy Worst Value - Cue Card 5/2 Supreme Novice
 
It's guess work that this is the plan for the horse but 16/1 gives enough risk and reward. With McCoy up and a handy weight over a trip he is unexposed at, he could go off any price.
 
Gearoid said:
Best Value - Sunnyhillboy 16/1 William Hill Trophy Worst Value - Cue Card 5/2 Supreme Novice
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I was thinking Cue Card isn't the worst value in the world at 5/2... in fact I've backed him at only a bit bigger.

I quite like your idea of Sunnyhillboy for decent value though.
 
sunybay said:
Steve


Do you want McCoy on Denman?
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AP or Ruby... not really bothered. If I do have a criticism of McCoy (who is the best NH jockey I have seen) it is that he can be a bully (which is both a strength and a weakness), which doesn't suit all horses. However, I think he gave Denman every chance in the last Gold Cup, it's just that Denman didn't really sparkle like he can... I'm very hopeful he will sparkle this time.

I can't fault Walsh's riding of Denman in his second Hennessy.
 
Hamm said:
Woolcombe Folly's form is not a million miles different to that of French Opera's at this stage last season and he would have been any multiple of WF's price.
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They've won the same contests at Cheltenham in successive years, but the similarity ends there. While French Opera battled to a 1¼ length win over Free World in receipt of weight in December 2009 (OR 147), Woolcombe Folly took the corresponding race by 6 lengths and 14 lengths giving weight all round (OR 154). That makes WF about a stone superior by direct comparison. I like the horse a lot and was on at double figure odds straight afterwards. A really impressive display, and he'll be even better if the going is good or quicker in March.
 
Woolcombe's Folly is a horse I have followed and liked for a while. Guess the only time I backed him. The Arkle.

He has an RPR of 172, which would probably have been good enough to win a few Champion Chases over the past 20 years. Yes Newmill, Edredon Bleu and Call Equiname; I am looking at you.
 
I suggest you look away from Edredon Bleu, BTB. It's an insult to the horse to bracket him with that pair.

Whilst the strict form of his wins in the Champion Chase and King George could be stronger, it takes some horse to win both races (indeed, I can't think of another horse that has), and it points to his versatility. He always gave his running (until his 12yo season, at any rate), he was hard campaigned yet super consistent, and he was one of the best jumpers of a fence I've seen in the 20 years I've been watching racing. He also collected over £0.75M win/place prize-money, winning over half his 47 steeplechase starts.

Newmill, Call Equiname and Edredon Bleu were all horses. That's pretty-much where the comparison ends insofar as the latter is concerned. :cool:
 
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I loved EB. Especially the way his name meant something hilarious in French.

His Champion Chase win was not great formwise.

He was an incredibly resilient and durable horse. And obviously Woolcombe Folly has a huge pile to do to get near him in terms of greatness.

All I am saying is that the form of his last win is not that far from the form EB showed in that one race.
 
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