Festival - Best and Worst Value

Blue Eiderdown, I believe, Bar. Sounds like a soft-core porno to me. :lol:

To get back on topic, I - for reasons that I'm quite unable to fathom - want to be against Menorah in the Champion Hurdle. Yet he has everything I usually look for in a prospect for this race; a clear and definite progression through novices, handicaps and conditions races, plenty of track form, an adapatable style, and no short measure of tenacity.

Yet I want to be against him?

The only reason I can offer is that the Bula form leaves me a little unconvinced, yet it would not shock me to see Cue Card bound-up in the opener either? It's a most perplexing conundrum.
 
Bar the Bull said:
obviously Woolcombe Folly has a huge pile to do to get near him in terms of greatness.

All I am saying is that the form of his last win is not that far from the form EB showed in that one race.
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The thing with Woolcombe Folly is that he has only had five chase starts won four of them and the last two (i.e. this season) are a step change from what went before.

So we have an unexposed 8yo of immense potential. Never mind that he hasn’t achieved what others have he’ll have time for that aplenty. He has a chance of anything they put him in. He’s already one of only a handful I have in my Festival ante-post portfolio. I agree with you that this one will be very decent indeed.
 
Grasshopper said:
To get back on topic, I - for reasons that I'm quite unable to fathom - want to be against Menorah in the Champion Hurdle. Yet he has everything I usually look for in a prospect for this race; a clear and definite progression through novices, handicaps and conditions races, plenty of track form, an adapatable style, and no short measure of tenacity.

Yet I want to be against him?

The only reason I can offer is that the Bula form leaves me a little unconvinced, yet it would not shock me to see Cue Card bound-up in the opener either? It's a most perplexing conundrum.
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Hopefully you'll shake the doubts off in time... Menorah is one that I want on my side and do not want to be against.

I'm also very sweet on Cue Card and won't entertain anything else for the Supreme Novices.
 
Worst value - Quevega at 5/4 for the Mares Hurdle
Would love her to win it for the 3rd time, but likely to be at least that price on the day
 
Grasshopper said:
It's a bit late for that, Steve - I'm balls-deep in Hurricane Fly. :D
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:lol: Good luck. HF clearly is entitled to take his chance this year but he's not for me.

I'm clear it's between Binocular and Menorah in my mind, with Peddlar's as the huge imponderable (any horse that is so clearly overshadowing Overturn must be very decent, just how much I don't know).
 
Hamm said:
Cross Country: Garde Champetre 5/1: The biggest price I could possibly see him starting is 3s (I would guess his SP will be 9/4), and he lost nothing in defeat to Lacdoudal a few months back.
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He stayed on well that day but is he not showing his age nowadays? The fact he was beaten in last year's renewal can't be a great sign. Not surprisingly I like Maljimar for the race if he lines up.
 
Worst Alfa Beat 10/1 National Hunt Chase as he doesn't run - Best Peddlers Cross at 11/2 - you will regret not getting on as Jason Maguire sets sail for home turning in as the jets kick in and the BEAST stretches out to win a vintage renewal as the pundits search for words to describe his brilliance!!
 
Banjaxed Girl in the D.N.Mares - the 40's looks massive for this very tough and consistent mare 7 x 1st, 4 x 2nd in 12 races and trained next to the course by Twiston-Davies - tough as old boots, possibly still improving, goes on any ground and my lively outsider - I'd be very surprised if she turned up at went off at double figure odds when the race cuts up.

I was leaning to Burton Port in the G.C. but I see no betting for him on oddschecker - have I missed something??
 
On The Bridle said:
Worst Alfa Beat 10/1 National Hunt Chase as he doesn't run - Best Peddlers Cross at 11/2 - you will regret not getting on as Jason Maguire sets sail for home turning in as the jets kick in and the BEAST stretches out to win a vintage renewal as the pundits search for words to describe his brilliance!!
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Byrnes horse - probably runs :)
 
Euronymous said:
He stayed on well that day but is he not showing his age nowadays? The fact he was beaten in last year's renewal can't be a great sign. Not surprisingly I like Maljimar for the race if he lines up.
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Not sure is it showing up much, maybe a little.

To put it another way - do you see anything you think would beat him and do you not see him starting shorter than 9/2?
 
Illustrates the point nicely Grass.

Best value for me has to be Albertas Run at 14-1 in the Ryanair. Given his ground I think he'll be tough to peg back, and I just don't rate Poquelin, Tranquil Sea or Kalahari King in the same league (rightly or wrongly).

There's a few that look bad value, but surely Time For Rupert is too short at this stage - I can't see him starting much shorter on the day.
 
I think the prep for Tranquil Sea last year wasnt ideal, and id be keen on his chances this year to be fair. One of the better bets for me.
 
What do we make of Tuesday in terms of best and worst value now?

Best Value: L'Ami 7/1 (4.00)
Worst Value: Peddlers Cross 9/2 (3.20)


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