Festival Preview Evenings

Elliott "if there's any horse that can beat Death Duty around Cheltenham it's Monalee".


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Yes, Col - thanks.

Elliot several times mentioned the fact that he would love to run Empire Of Dirt in the Gold Cup, so we might see a switch yet. I contrived to miss what he said about EOD in the Ryanair, and would appreciate an uodate from anyone who caught it.

He was also very, very strong on Death Duty (definitely goes to the Bartlett), and I may have to reconsider my planned opposition to him.
 
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Nichols comparing Native River to Denman.
Elliot like the look of Djakadam for the Gold Cup, he doesn't like Cue Card.
Nichols pick Native River.

Blake stays loyal and picks Don Poli for the GC.
 
Grasshopper said:
Yes, Col - thanks.

Elliot several times mentioned the fact that he would love to run Empire Of Dirt in the Gold Cup, so we might see a switch yet. I contrived to miss what he said about EOD in the Ryanair, and would appreciate an uodate from anyone who caught it.

He was also very, very strong on Death Duty (definitely goes to the Bartlett), and I may have to reconsider my planned opposition to him.
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Listening to Elliot you'd have to be confident on Death Duty, I won't be backing against it now anyhow.
 
Grasshopper said:
Yes, Col - thanks.

Elliot several times mentioned the fact that he would love to run Empire Of Dirt in the Gold Cup, so we might see a switch yet. I contrived to miss what he said about EOD in the Ryanair, and would appreciate an uodate from anyone who caught it.

He was also very, very strong on Death Duty (definitely goes to the Bartlett), and I may have to reconsider my planned opposition to him.
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You can watch it again if needed

https://betting.betfair.com/horse-r...0&rfr=798967&dclid=CLL4k4bDt9ICFfcT0wodePIO-A
 
Elliot actually reasonably cool on EOD's chance in the Ryanair, based on that evidence.

Hopefully he will convince the O'Leary's to switch.
 
I don't know can he! I'd love to see him in the GC too but as Elliott said last night they pay the bills and they want him in the Ryanair. Michael O'Leary is determined to win his own race.


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Preview night in Cork

Panel : Enda Bolger (EB), Nina Carberry (NC) , Tony Mullins (TM)

Supreme Novices
TM -> Has a friend that does sectionals and said Bunk Off Early’s sectionals were ‘amazing’. Melon too inexperienced. Moon Racer the reliable one
NC -> Very negative about Melons jumping
EB -> Very sweet on Moon Racer (Mentions course form not for the only time tonight) will get up the hill
Arkle
All the panel select Altior, Tony Mullins gives an each-way shout for Charbel then goes off on a tangent defending Nico De Boinville as a jockey re ride he gave Coneygree…
Champion Hurdle
EB -> Yanworth a funny horse to get a handle on but has been laid out for this race
NC -> Likes Petit Mouchoir but sees the value at 14/1 about Tombstone
TM -> Absolutely says Limini wins!! equates her to Faugheen!!!! BUT says she’s at her best fresh and is not sure that the race against Apples Jade isn’t too close to the festival. Says Yanworth won’t beat the ambulance home, ran like a piebald the last day !!!
Mares Hurdle
First all NO mention of Limini!!
NC -> Willie wins bu Vroum Vroum not at 100% after last race
TM -> Backed up what Nina said re last time out saying Vroom Vroom and a bad blood count. Says at her age Apples Jade has had too many hard races this season
EB - > Vroom Vroom Mag
NH Chase
NC -> If she could ride one in it - Alpha Des Obeaux. Agenieinabottle a leary lazy type but has been aimed at this
TM -> Mouse always has then ready
EB -> Edwulf the pick of JP’s and Derek O’Connor rides
Neptune
Not much was discussed about the Neptune, Tony Mullins liked Bacardys and then went off on a tangent about how people were doubting how successful Willie would be this year, he reckoned he will have a ‘savage year’
Champion Chase
Douvan has to fall twice to lose this. Not a whole lot of time spent.
Cross Country
EB -> Cantlow was 18lbs worse off last time out against the French horse meets on level weights. Gave Cause Of Causes as a dark horse, Mark Walsh has the choice (Cantlow/Auvergnat) Adrian Heskin rides the other and Derek O’Connor definitely rides Colour Squadron
NC -> Cantlow a worthy fave but very competitive, gave Usuel Smurfer as a big price that won’t be far away.
TM -> Enda wins
Bumper
EB -> Connections very sweet on Western Ryder
TM -> Says Carter McKay is Willie’s best but questioned its tail-carriage last time out.
NC -> Mentioned a horse of Jonjo’s that won at Chepstow last time out… have to google that one
It was mentioned that of all the horses Willie lost to Gigginstown, Blow By Blow was the one he would miss most
JLT
TM -> Yorkhill the bet of the meeting
NC -> likes Disko but not good enough here
EB -> Yorkhill loves going left, Ruby hugs the rail the whole way round
Ryanair
At this point Un De Sceaux’s owner came up to the stage. Waxed lyrical about UDS but!!!! said he will NOT WIN IF THE GROUND IS GOOD!!!! Also said forecast is for rain for the next 10 days there so was optimistic BUT when he said about the ground you could hear a pin drop!!
NC -> Said that that owners run Empire Of Dirt here could be a tip in itself
TM -> Dismissed bounce factor with Uxizandre said its been trained with race in mind
Stayers
All of the panel keen on Uknowhatimeanharry
TM-> commented that he reckons Nichols Canyon is gone at the game,
NC -> Not much of an Irish threat in this
EB -> Said Barry Geraghty holds UNWIMH in highest regard
Mares Novice
Panel split here
NC -> No faults in Airlie Beach and can’t see it beaten
TM -> Lets Dance has the proven class and Airlie Beach is just an improver so far
EB -> Would love to see Airlie Beach win as a shout out to Kilbeggan
TM -> Never underestimate the strength of a second season novice
Triumph
TM -> No fxxxing interest!! can never work it out !! move on
NC -> Master Blueness impressed her last time out.
EB -> Loves Defi as a course and distance winner and said Barry Geraghty was very sweet
Take this with a pinch a salt but someone on the panel said that Charles Byrnes had said that Defi Du seuil was a BANKER!!
Albert Barlett
Got the panels interest big time as a great race!!
TM -> Hopes Death Duty wins, also gave Penhill as a horse that bled at Killarney and then came out next time and won by half the track
NC -> Thinks the world of Death Duty
EB -> Knows Death Duty well. Best of Irish staying novices, ticks all the boxes
Gold Cup
NC -> An open Gold Cup but very keen on Native River but it has had a hard season
TM -> Native River a bit to find on ratings!! Couldn’t believe what Paddy Brennan did with Cue Card last year, to have him switched off most of the way around and then pull him out and set him alight 3 from home!! No for Outlander. Don Poli to finish 3rd, 4th or 5th
EB -> Likes Native River but really fancies Djakadam
Fox hunters
EB -> On The Fringe like a pet to him, is there to be shot at but is spot on after the blow-out at Leopardstown last time out.
Panel -> Huge negative for Wonderful Charm on account of its wind problem…
End gave Staker Wallace as a hunter to watch for the future..
Handicap Bets
EB -> Whatever Jamie Codd rides in the Kim Muir
NC -> Southfield Royale
NAPS
TM -> Yorkhill
NC -> Death Duty
EB -> Death Duty
Value Bet
TM -> Bunk Off Early
EB -> Whatever Jamie Codd rides in the Kim Muir
Charity Bets
Came after questions and all the panel agreed how quick Cheltenham dries out so pay special attention to going and weather
TM -> Yorkhill
NC -> Death Duty
EB -> Djakadam
 
Lismore Cheltenham Preview Night

Panel :
Tony McCoy (TM)
Davy Russell (DR)
David Casey (DC)
Alan King (AK)
Noel Cummins (NC)
Henry De Bromhead (HD)
Carl Llewellyn (CL)

Night started off with Richard Phillips doing MC, as Mike Cattermole & Alan king were late arriving “Got stuck in UK, Phillips was very good at MC & got all the panel messing & slagging each other.
McCoy hinted at numerous times during the night that he will be riding at the festival, to which DR replied “He’ll definitely do 11st 12Lb, David Casey said McCoy could ride there alright, but he won’t get colours big enough to fit him !

Tuesday
Supreme Novice :
TM – Defi Du Seuil & Charlie Parcs will defo not run here. He likes Moon Racer, if he gets there he is the one he would be backing, as he has the form. He has beaten Ballyandy. And he also has course form.
DR – Melon being fav for this is an absolute joke. He is a lovely looking horse, but being fav after 1 run, this shouldn’t be. He thinks Finian’s Oscar should run in this. Said he has no ride in this yet, then said “We have nothing going in this have we Henry (to De Bromhead). HD replied, he has Capital Force entered in this but the reason Davy has no ride in this is because he made a balls on him the last day ! Said he will ask David Mullins & if he can’t then Davy has a chance !!!!
DC – Melon is very good, they really like him, but he beat little in Leopardstown the last day. He has heard that they are struggling to get Moon Racer fit & ready for the day & thinks he will miss the festival. Bunk Off Early is better Value @ 8/1.
NC – Melon won’t be fav on the day, said his owners are very lucky & will be 5/1 on the day. Ballyandy will go off fav & he would be his choice.
HD – He runs Capital Force, needs good ground & a good gallop. EW chance. Ballyandy is his choice as winner.
CL – Melon is inexperienced. Ballyandy very solid.

Arkle :
TM – Altior is a good thing.
DR – Yorkhill should run here. He rides Ordinary World, will ride him for a place. Altior is the best in it without Yorkhill.
DC – Yorkhill will go to the JLT. Royal Caviar will run in this, but will be running for a place. The hill might not suit him.
HD – Will run 3 in it. Identity Thief will not run. Ordinary World would probably be his pick of his 3, but they are very hard to choose between as they are all rated pretty much the same. Altior is the winner.
CL – Altior wins if he jumps. Ordinary World EW.

Champion Hurdle :
TM – Yanworth is best on official rating, but his jumping isn’t the best at times. My Tent Or Yours very good EW bet. Will defo beat The New One.
DR – Impressed by Yanworth & Buveur Dair. Brain Power not good enough for this. Petit Mouchoir very solid.
DC – They have until 8th March to supplement Limini & will wait until then to make decision. VVM is a lot better now than when she returned from Doncaster, and coming back to herself.
AK – King & Cattermole arrived just at this point. Cattermole said that on the 6hr journey acros King was constantly on about Yanworth to him. King said he is really looking forward to him running.
NC – VVM is the form horse.
HD – He is completely focused on Petit Mouchoir at the moment & he is really happy with him.
CL – Yanworth isn’t a great jumper & Buveur Dair is his choice to win this.

Wednesday
Neptune Hurdle :
TM – Neon Wolf impressed him a lot. Said Harry Fry is constantly on about this horse & thinks he is the best he has had. Bacardys EW.
DR – Death duty would defo win this, but they gonna go for AB with him. Thinks Lets Dance is being overlooked for this & has a chance.
AK – Big Neon Wolf fan. Thinks Finian’s Oscar is one to take on. Thinks his form is not good enough. He runs Messire Des Obeaux here and has an EW chance.
After discussing the race a bit and just before moving on, King then says that he is just after remembering something he had heard earlier & Neon Wolf was entered on Friday & Might skip Cheltenham in favour of Aintree. Said the owners don’t care too much for Cheltenham. Said he had a horse a few yrs ago for the same owners & he had to beg them to run it at Cheltenham.
NC – Impressed with how Bacardys won the last day. Patrick gave him a great ride. Rode him patiently.
HD – He has Monalee entered and he really likes him. Said he will avoid Death Duty wherever he runs. If DD turns up here Monalee will go for the AB. Russell also ploughed in with his liking for Monalee. Most likely run here as he is surprised they are leaning towards the AB for Death Duty as he thinks he would defo win this as he has the class.

RSA Chase :
TM – Coney Island has impressed him a lot. Said he had an issue LTO & prob the reason he was beaten. Said he is better again now. Said if he owned American, he would run him in the 4 miler. Likes Mite Bite also.
DR – Will ride Whisper providing they avoid Yorkhill by running here. Said whisper likes a bit of juice in the ground. But he isn’t overly ground dependent. Likes the course. Said Mite Bite is by Scorpion, Cattermole asked what does that mean – Davy made the puking sound, like he won’t like the hill !
DC – Was asked what do they think of this race. He said, not a lot. They will run Bellshill, but he has been to Cheltenham twice and hasn’t run his best. Thinks the track might not suit him. Said he likes Whisper if he runs.
HD – Likes Bellshill. Said they ground will be in his favour. Said the soft ground he has been running on doesn’t suit him. Said trip is ideal & doesn’t think it is the track that is the issue. Said the 2 times he has run at Cheltenham the trip was too short & that’s why he didn’t show his best. Has Herons Heights entered in this, but most likely will run him in a handicap, depending on the mark he gets (Seems to fancy him for a handicap IMO).
CL – Thinks the top 2 are very short. Likes Whisper & also thinks Disko is very tough & consistent.


Champion Chase :
TM – Douvan is exceptional & jumps like a champion chaser should. Low & fast over fences.
DR – No Contest. Absolutely loves Douvan. Thinks he is exceptional.
NC – Asked “Who rides Douvan gave a grin, suggesting Ruby will knock him !
AK – Thinks there is a disconnection between Ruby & Douvan. Said if you look at his last run, he came out of Ruby’s hands a few times.
HD – Special Tiara will go a good lick, prob set it up for Douvan. But he is good value to be 2nd to him.

Bumper :
TM – Daphne Du Clos is best of British. But is only a 4YO.
DC – Will only run 3 in it. Ballyward will not run. Patrick will ride Carter Makay. Start of the yr they thought their bumper horses weren’t too good, but as they all started to run they realised they aren’t too bad after all.

Thursday
JLT Novice Chase :
TM – Cannot see Top Notch beating Yorkhill. Yorkhill very impressive last yr to win in Aintree. Never seen a horse to pull so hard all the way through a race and still win the way he did.
DR – Yorkhill
DC – Yorkhill is very good. Trip suits. He is top quality, has huge ability & will take a lot of beating.
AK – Top Notch fan & surprised if he is not in shake-up.
NC – Yorkhill the one to beat. Disko has a chance if he runs.
HD – Yorkhill hard to beat.
CL – Sam Twiston-Davis is a poor judge and he thinks Politologue is a good thing. Said to completely rule this lad out.

Ryanair Chase :
TM – Would love to ride Uxizandre in this. Said the last time he rode him, the speed he shown was unreal. Thinks UDS is a slow horse & wouldn’t have him.
DR – Could ride Zabana in this race. He is entered in 2 at festival (Casey said, make sure you face him the right way this year!). Uxizandre is the best value bet of the meeting.
DC – UDS likes a bit of cut in the ground, said a bit of juice in the ground will help him. Said he is in good form & the trip is ideal for him.
AK – Uxizandre is very well in himself at the moment. He needs to go left handed. He exceeded his expectations the way he ran the last day & he worked very well on Saturday last.
NC – Likes Empire of Dirt & is a big UDS fan.
HD – Will run Sub Lieutenant in this. Didn’t say anything on him, just that he runs. There was a big cheer suggesting this has a big chance – Gigginstown in Ryanair !
CL – Joses Hill is a big girls blouse. Likes both UDS & Uxizandre. Uxi is good value.

World Hurdle :
TM – Unowhatimeanharry impressed LTO. Jezki definitely runs in this & great EW bet.
DR – Unowhatimeanharry is the bet of the meeting. Cole Harden EW.
DC – Nichols Canyon will probably wait for Punchestown. VVM could run in this but more than likely run in the mares. Thinks Jezki is the one.
AK – Cole Harden EW
NC – Shaneshill
CL – Cole Harden EW – Has had a wind op & the good ground will suit him. Unowhatimeanharry is no value. Jezki great value.



Friday
Triumph Hurdle :
TM – Defi Du Seuil is a very good jumper & fears Mega Fortune the most.
DR – Rides Mega Fortune. He stays the distance, soft ground would be better but not very ground dependent.
DC – Defi will be hard to beat. Irish form isn’t strong. They are all beating each other. Meri Devie ran well the last day & is the best of Mullins’.
AK – Master Blueyes has a huge chance. He wants it dry. Very sweet on him. Said he was always a Triumph horse & don’t mind Tom ? He knows **** all & was never gonna run in Fred Winter. Has been working unreal well the last month.

Albert Bartlett Hurdle :
TM – West Approach, his run the last day was very good form. Death Duty should go for the Neptune, thinks trip will catch him out.
DR – West Approach, Wholestone lacks the class for this race.
NC – Agusta Kate. Monalee was very good LTO in Clonmel.
HD – Monalee has a great chance if he runs in this – Depends on where Death Duty goes ( Avoiding him).
CL – Wholestone lacks the class for this race. He has had a problem since his last run.

Gold Cup :
TM – More Of That is ok after his fall the LTO. He is back running to his best form from 2 yrs ago lately. Has an ew chance. Outlander is improving all the time & is his choice. Thinks Djakadam is a big player too and his prep this yr is a lot better.
DR – Worries about Cue Card. Sizing John is an unknown quantity & dunno about the trip. Djakadam has been freshened up & great decision not to go to Leopardstown with him & prep this yr is spot on. Don Poli is slow & he gave him a lot to do last yr in it. Outlander probably just gets the nod in front of Djak.
DC – Djakadam has a huge chance this yr. Doensn’t like Cue Card. Thinks Native River hasn’t improved enough. He won off 150 & ran off 150 again & only beat Raz De Maree by 1.5l. Thinks More Of That will run a big race.
NC – Cue Card won’t stay the trip. Emptied out very quickly in Ireland last yr. He is on the Djakadam bandwagon, but it is a poor renewal.
AK – Native River rock solid, but Cue Card coule be the class act in the field. Fancies CC.
HD – Champagne West is in great order. Will love a test of stamina. Won well off 154 in Thyestes. Djakadam won Thyestes off 145 and has run well in GC, so thinks he has a great chance.
CL – Bristol De Mai has no chance unless it rains. Fancies Djakadam.


Handicap Tips :
TM – Beauvreuil & Bloody Mary
DR – Diamond King (Brown & Advisory) – Good Ground
DC – The Storyteller (Martin Pipe)
AK – Dino Velvet (Fred Winter) & Label Des Obeaux (Ultima)
NC – Ballyandy (Coral) – King & Cattermole started to skit at this.
HD – The Storyteller (Martin Pipe)
CL – Foxtail Hill (Close Brothers Novice Handicap – Tue)

Charity Tips :
There were stipulations here. McCoy had to pick JP handicap horse. Russell had to pick something he was riding. Casey had to pick a Mullins horse & De Bromhead had to pick one of his own.
TM – Said €50 ew on Jezki – World hurdle. Paddy Power representative said it had to be a handicap horse. McCoy said he didn’t know what was goin in handicaps & after a few minutes he stood up & took out money out of his own pocket & said he will have €100ew of his own money with William Hill on Jezki.
DR – Had his €50 ew on Ordinary World in Arkle. Said he will creep around on him & finish 3rd @ 50/1.
DC – Had his €50 ew on Agusta Kate in Albert Bartlett.
AK – Had €50 win on Master Blueyes – Triumph
NC – A Genie In Abottle - €50 win – 4 miler
HD - €50ew – Petit Mouchoir – Champ Hurdle
CL - €50 win Defi Du Seuil - Triumph
 
Ended up at the Betbright preview in London last night which was good fun but not something I’d rush back to.

MC was Nick Luck (looked pissed) panel: Rich Ricci, Paul Kealy (heart attack waiting to happen but entertaining), Joe Tizzard (definitely pissed and offered little) and Noel Hayes (Betbright PR – largely incomprehensible but offers were good if you had an account, smart phone and quick fingers…)

I did not take notes, but this is what I remember:

Supreme – Ricci likes Melon(!)
Arkle – Altior a cert. Kealy very strong on Charbel w/o fav
Champion Hurdle – Ricci sort of hinted that Limini was not 100% certain to be entered and VVM was still in the mix. VVM not right last 2 times. Kealy – B’evauer
Nov Hcap Chase – Kealy liked Singlefarmpayment where he goes
4 Miler – All liked Champers on Ice and this was the target and not a handicap
Mares – Can’t remember
Neptune – Kealy – Finians Oscar lay off the week. Tizzard (obv) their best novice ever, much better that Tolworth because of ground and trip. Ricci was under bidder
RSA can’t remember
QM – Douvan, certainty. Tizz – Fox Norton will come on massively for Newbury. Kealy thinks it should run in Ryanair
JLT – Ricci Yorkhill (surprise surprise) and they have “ironed out” his jumping. Kealy likes Politologue. Tizzard said did not like his head carriage to which Kealy replied…”Cue Card”??
Stayers – All like UKWIMH though Cole Harden Kealy ew bet of the week
Mares Novice – Lets Dance a certainty (Ricci)

We left about here… A good laugh, but not to be taken too seriously.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Lismore Cheltenham Preview Night


Charity Tips :
There were stipulations here. McCoy had to pick JP handicap horse. Russell had to pick something he was riding. Casey had to pick a Mullins horse & De Bromhead had to pick one of his own.
TM – Said €50 ew on Jezki – World hurdle. Paddy Power representative said it had to be a handicap horse. McCoy said he didn’t know what was goin in handicaps & after a few minutes he stood up & took out money out of his own pocket & said he will have €100ew of his own money with William Hill on Jezki.
DR – Had his €50 ew on Ordinary World in Arkle. Said he will creep around on him & finish 3rd @ 50/1.
DC – Had his €50 ew on Agusta Kate in Albert Bartlett.
AK – Had €50 win on Master Blueyes – Triumph
NC – A Genie In Abottle - €50 win – 4 miler
HD - €50ew – Petit Mouchoir – Champ Hurdle
CL - €50 win Defi Du Seuil - Triumph
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Class from AP
 
There is a saturation point for other people's Cheltenham opinions (TH aside) and I'm very close to my limit.

Time to go to ground very soon.
 
I think it satisfies the appetite for festival related material in the long build up to the start Cheltenham. Most of it you just got to let it in one ear and out the other. Value your own opinion and you'll only have yourself to blame if and when it goes arseways. :)


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Usual rules apply:

1. Panelist agrees with my choice = he/she is a judge/shrewdie
2. Panelist disagrees with my choice = he/she is a muppet/ar*sehole
 
Grasshopper said:
Usual rules apply:

1. Panelist agrees with my choice = he/she is a judge/shrewdie
2. Panelist disagrees with my choice = he/she is a muppet/ar*sehole
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I grant an exemption from category 2 to those who can provide a good quote, such as Yanworth not beating the ambulance home, or Douvan needing to fall twice if he's to lose.
 
Grey said:
I grant an exemption from category 2 to those who can provide a good quote, such as Yanworth not beating the ambulance home, or Douvan needing to fall twice if he's to lose.
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I agree. This can be the first Amendment to the Festival Preview Constitution.
 
Grasshopper said:
Usual rules apply:

1. Panelist agrees with my choice = he/she is a judge/shrewdie
2. Panelist disagrees with my choice = he/she is a muppet/ar*sehole
Click to expand...

Due to consistent bouts of dithering I haven't committed a single penny to any festival race as of yet. Of course it's frustrating to see one's you favour getting progressively shorter in price but it does have its advantages:-

Not having to vehemently defend your position despite mounting evidence to the contrary
Letting outside information wash over you and treating each piece on it's merits
Lack of suicidal thoughts when your selection gets injured/aimed at another race/flops horribly in their prep

Overall I'm a happier person for it, save for the odd bout of rage when ADO's price becomes ever shorter.
 
The innuendo is lost on me, Archie. I can only offer my life-mantra in response: best never to knock it until you've tried it. :lol:
 
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