An intersting take on Iberian history there Suny. Funnily enough you could argue that the Spanish Civil War started in Croydon, but I won't try that line
. I'm not sure that Franco rose to power after the Civil War either, surely he rose to power because of it, or during it. I think the distinction is important, and unlike yourself I can see some similarities with Cuba, were it not for the fact that Azana's was government indigenous and had been democratically elected, and was still supported by a majority of the people, unlike Battista.
The causes of the Civil War themselves are numerous (as is usually the case) I think for balance you need to accommodate the oppression handed out by Gils Robles government in the mid 1930's that largely forced the formation/ consolidation of the Popular Front. Essentially two very intractable positions were being drawn up that reflected the compisition and structure of Spanish society which was conservative on one side, and radically progressive on the other
The influence of the military is probably the most critical factor I'd have thought. Lets not forget that in 1932 there was the Generals revolt, when right wing commanders tried to over throw the democratcially government. Its hardly surprising that the Popular Front sought to deal with the military thus and reform it in line with the modern Europe. Spain had long lost its empire, and was a very backward and agririan country that was rife with corruption and inefficiency. The recession of the 1930's only sought to exacerbate these tensions in line with the economic collpase that occurred globally and help give rise the Nazism in Germany, Fascism in Italy and Militarism in Japan
The army had a disproportionate and unhealthy influence on democratic Spain too. The civilian government wanted to reform it given that it was chronically top heavy, corrupt and inefficient. Primo de Riveria might have been benign by dictators standards, but he had no elected mandate to Govern in the 1920's, and yet these types of interventions led to the armies perception that they had democratic legitimacy I feel.
The influence of the Catholic Church was also a factor and led to the formation of the CEDA. Although prominent in pre war Spain they were ursurped by the Falange who were much more 'nasty' for want of a crass way of putting it. Indeed, a lot of Falangists were equally adept at fermenting the type of trouble which you seem to be indicating was the exclusive presereve of the anarchist unions such as the CNT and UGT. Falagists were quite adept at assainating political opponents and became just about the worst exponents of it before July '36 and most certainly after it
The Carlists were another group who had a hand in stirring up trouble and Alfonso was largely ineffectual in reigning them in, with his abdication looking more like a grand gesture rather than anything of any substance.
The assasination of Sotelo might have been the straw that broke the camels back, but there had been a series of such acts all throuigh 1935/ 36 from both sides including that of Lieutenent Castillio who was murdered by Fascists at about the same time. Indeed their respective funerals took part within hours of each other, and about a day before Franco's uprising.
Had the Popular Front armed the people straight away, then its entirely possible that Franco would have failed, as a majority of the army stayed loyal to the Republic in the early days, as indeed did the Navy throughout the war (Spain had no airforce and Franco duly borrowed Goerings). A look at a map of Spain in July of 1936 will also show you that most of the country was loyal to the Republic. Indeed the uprising was largely sustained in the South purely because that's where the better troops were, that had been brought in from Morocco, as places like Seville, Cordoba, Huelva and Cadiz had no real appetite for Franco. A similar pattern emerged in Oviedo of all palces which was staunch Republican but unable to shift the garrison, as indeed it did at Granada. Perhaps the most celebrated example would be the Alcazar at Toledo. I must confess to not being quite so familiar with the political dynamics of Galcia Leon, Old Castille and parts of Aragon, but I would have thought Zaragosa's failure to support the Republic was another example of this perversity
What you essentially had was a minority imposing their will on the majority through the force of their weaponary. Even where the Nationalists had a strong foothold, this was largely due to the failures of the people/ government to dislodge them, rather than any endorsement for what they'd done. Franco's foothold was initially tenuous and had the government acted decisively in the first 2 or 3 days then democratic rule in Spain might have been upheld. As such he turned to Hitler and Mussolini, whilst the French and the British largely failed to support the Republic. Indeed it cost Louis Blum his own popular front government in France. Not surprisingly with the democratic powers not really showing any enthusiasm Spain turned to Stalin for aid, which although forthcoming wasn't anything like the same scale that Nazi Germany, and Mussolini furnished Franco with. Indeed they were very happy to rehearse/ practice for what was to happen a few years later, and the apparent inferiority of the Soviet hardware, allied to their weakness in the Winters war against Finland, went along way towards persuading Hitler that a wider European war was winnable I believe.
As regards his regional policy by the way I'm not sure that too many FC Barcelona fans would agree with you, as he came very close to shutting them down for fear of their association as standard bearers of Catalan independence. Franco might have come from Burgos but he was essentially an aristocratic Real Madrid fan. Even to the point where the government bought all the best talent available (invariably South American and giving them Spanish nationality if needed). He then systematically used the club to show case his Fascism (I wonder if good old David Beckham's aware of the historical resonance. Famously Barca were 3 - 1 up in a 1st leg match and took the lead in the return. Under threat of death though, common sense prevailed and they contrived to lose something 13 - 1
