Fighting Fifth Hurdle 1st December

[Danny]

I don't get how anyone cannot be taken by Buveir on Saturday. They were every bullish about SB's chances at the weekend and he was beaten a country mile..

Connections bullish about a horse...horse runs disappointingly!

Not exactly on par with who shot Kennedy, Yetti sightings and fake moon landings.

 

[edgt]

Champion Hurdles are won by horses that jump hurdles economically, cleanly and quickly at pace.
Faugheen is about the only Champion Hurdler who did not in the last twenty years.
Whatever Saturday's pace BD gave an exhibition of quick slick jumping bar the last when even then he did not lose ground, ran to the line despite looking big so he can only improve whereas Samcro, in the winner's absence would have ticked all boxes for most watching he was so far of the rest.
Samcro jumped well but not in the style of a Champion hurdler, neither losing nor gaining ground to any of the others bar the winner, a dual champion.
At Fairyhouse Sunday Patrick Mullins did his utmost to get Apples Jade off the bridle and failed ; his face on returning to unsaddle said it all.
As Gordon correctly said on irishracing.com you should never stay at home because of one horse.
You should however bring your best suited horse to Championship battle methinks..
Where, by the way does this leave Bedrock , the forgotten horse ?

 

[Double Handful]

Champion Hurdles are won by horses that jump hurdles economically, cleanly and quickly at pace.
Faugheen is about the only Champion Hurdler who did not in the last twenty years.
Whatever Saturday's pace BD gave an exhibition of quick slick jumping bar the last when even then he did not lose ground, ran to the line despite looking big so he can only improve whereas Samcro, in the winner's absence would have ticked all boxes for most watching he was so far of the rest.
Samcro jumped well but not in the style of a Champion hurdler, neither losing nor gaining ground to any of the others bar the winner, a dual champion.
At Fairyhouse Sunday Patrick Mullins did his utmost to get Apples Jade off the bridle and failed ; his face on returning to unsaddle said it all.
As Gordon correctly said on irishracing.com you should never stay at home because of one horse.
You should however bring your best suited horse to Championship battle methinks..
Where, by the way does this leave Bedrock , the forgotten horse ?

Bedrock going to America, isn't he?

 

[Maruco]

Until he was declared and turned up at Newcastle my understanding was he'd already gone to the US. I can only assume that after the run ahead of Samcro and Sharjah they had a change of heart and are looking to campaign him here to see how far it goes before shipping him off.

 

[Kauto Abu]

Correct. I think he goes to Kempton if the injury is ok.


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[Desert Orchid]

The time for the race is confirming how it appeared to the eye - slow. BDA has clearly outsprinted inferior horses in a race run to suit.

The time was 35lbs faster than the juvenile hurdle (winner's RPR 118). The other hurdles race was a maiden event which was a lot slower again.

I have to be honest. I'm really struggling to accept that VDF was anywhere near form. I was probably watching him and SB more during the race than the big two because I wanted to use them as markers for the favourites but I was never happy with the way VDF was being ridden, lobbing around off the pace and never asked a serious question and Summerville Boy should have hammered him.

A literal line with VDF's OR 150 puts BDA on 172, which is his new mark but I'm really struggling to accept it. That's not to say I don't think he can run to that mark in a truer race and/or when he's fully fit, but I'll want to see it actually happen.

I can't take the hurdles times as a marker for the day because, as I say, one was a juvenile race and the other a maiden and they are unknown quantities. I'm reluctant to use chase times but in the absence of reliable hurdles ones I sometimes see how they work out. Translating the going allowance from the chases to the hurdles suggests a time rating of about 147 for BDA, which would merely serve to confirm the visual impression of a moderately run and uncompetitive race.

 

[Desert Orchid]

I've just been over to the ATR site to review the races and time the sectionals but I see Simon Rowlands has already analysed the race.

I hope he doesn't mind my copying the link to his item:

http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight

 

[Desert Orchid]

Just as a matter of interest, how literally are BDA's fans prepared to take the Apple's Jade form?

I accept we're talking about races at different distances but the principal is the same surely?

https://www.racingpost.com/results/182/fairyhouse/2018-12-02/716274

If we take the winner out of the equation, haven't Supa and Limini run very close to their ratings? Hasn't Baupame run only a few pounds higher than his? Farclas is only a couple of lengths behind Baupame having been rated only a pound lower. Doesn't that seem solid enough?

So the only flies in the ointment are a) the proximity to the placed horses of the 142-rated Early Doors and b) the huge winning margin.

What's to say ED hasn't improved? He holds a Grade 1 entry later in the month, doesn't he?

So beating Supa and Lim by 20 lengths+ is just an impossibility, therefore we ignore the result.

But hang on, BDA's form with Samcro has to be taken literally, doesn't it?

(Just playing devil's advocate, you understand.)

I've done my crude sectional analysis of the races at Fairyhouse on Sunday. There's a biggish margin for error becuse it's virtually impossible to pause the race at exactly the same point (going over each hurdle) in each race but the broad picture is saying (let's call a second five lengths):

The valuable handicap appeared to be run at a reasonable pace but it couldn't really have been the case. The juvenile race was five lengths faster from the first flight to the second (I start timings from the first flight), as was the Royal Bond.

From two to three the juvenile was five lengths faster than the Royal Bond and 15 faster than the handicap.

From three to four the handicap pulled back five lengths on the other two races.

From four to five it lost those five lengths again.

From five to six the juvenile and handicap were the same but the RB lost five lengths.

From six to seven the juvenile race gained another five over the Royal Bond and a further five over the handicap.

From seven to eight the handicap pulled back five lengths on the other two races.

From eight to nine the RB was ten lengths faster than the juvenile and fifteen faster than the handicap.

From nine to the line the RB was the same as the juvenile (RB winner easing a little) and five faster than the handicap.

So the numbers don't say a lot for the handicap. It seems to have been a somewhat moderately-run race yet they weren't really finishing fast to make up for it.

Ultimately, the juvenile was 34lbs faster than it.

Somewhat surprisingly, the juvenile was a little faster run than the Royal Bond but with weight adjustments the RB gets a 7lbs higher time rating but WFA is more than that at this stage of the season.

Both the RB and the juvenile are almost certainly very good races.

So how might Apple's Jade compare?

On my figures (using the RP standards as I don't have my own) she's 20lbs faster than the RB winner and 27lbs faster than the juvenile winner.

The sectionals tell another story too.

Timing the race from what was the first flight for the other races, the Hatton's Grace matched the handicap from one to two, matched the RB from two to three, was fastest by 10 lengths from three to four, faster by another ten lengths from four to five, and faster by another five lengths from five to six, at which point the pace appeared to start to tell a little as Wicklow Brave came off the bit having apparently tried to keep up a two-mile pace and Apple's Jade pushed on while Limini et al were trying to close, the other jockeys presumably having thought the pace was too hot up front.

AJ was still as fast as the fastest of the other races to the next flight but lost five lengths going to the next. She lost another ten to the RB to the next but got to the line from the last in the same time. Overall, she was five seconds faster for the two miles than the Royal Bond winner despite running 25% further overall. At five lengths to a second and a length equating more or less to a pound, she's 18lbs better than the Royal Bond winner after taking weight carried into account.

Quick Grabim got an RPR of 145 so AJ should be around 163, which is her RPR for the race. My time ratings, as I said, have the overall difference at 20lbs.

Then again, Apple's Jade has given a 164 horse an 11lbs doing, She's given Limini (OR 152) a 20lbs beating and the 153-rated Bapaume a 14lbs beating.

So... worst-case scenario, she's a 163 (her RPR) horse. Next worst-case (via Bapaume) 167. Next 172. Best-case scenario 175.

The worst-case scenario means Buveur D'Air will need to be 170+ to beat her. The best-case scenario means he'll have to be 182.

Assuming, of course, they see sense and send her to take him on.

If there was any NRNB about the current 20/1, I'd be all over it like a rash.