Fighting Fifth Hurdle

M

Marb

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APPLES' JADE is my bet if she turns up. Soft going is a possibility as there was a lot of rain earlier in the week.

I'll be attending, if any other forum people are there then let me know.

Five In A Row looks interesting in the Rehearsal Chase.
 
He needs to be ridden more aggressively.

im at odd ends with the fav.

Triumph form looks so weak, I just can't see how he would have improved so much.
 
With a run under his belt and especially with Apples in the race I would expect a more positive ride on PM

I'm not that negative on the fav as to dismiss him because of the dodgy Juv form but he has to step up markedly on what he's done thus far.
 
The fact they are racing the fav so much makes me think they know his ceiling point is near. I like him on what I Have seen to date but think PM has a great chance on Sat
 
For those who like to do research and follow trends>>>

The StanJames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle takes place at Newcastle on Saturday 26th November. Punjabi won this in 2008 before going on to win the Champion Hurdle and recent winners, Peddlers Cross, Overturn & My Tent Or Yours, all won it before finishing runner-up in the Cheltenham hurdling showpiece.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 1-4-9
5yo: 4-3-17
6yo: 3-0-14
7yo: 1-2-16
8yo: 1-1-5
9yo: 0-1-2
10yo+: 0-1-2
Horses aged 4 to 6: 8-7-40
Aged 7+: 2-5-25
5 & 6yos have accounted for 9 of the last 12 winners of this race.
The one 4yo winner in past 25 years was Countrywide Flame, who had won that year’s Triumph Hurdle.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 runners finished in the first 2 last time (exception fell at last when going well)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 146 or higher on last hurdles start
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
8 of 10 winners had previously run in 4 to 9 hurdles
9 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season hurdlers (exception was Harchibald in 2007, he had also won it in 2004)
5 of 7 second season hurdler winners had won a class 1 hurdle at Aintree or Cheltenham Festivals that year
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 149+ over hurdles
6 of 10 winners finished in first 3 in a graded hurdle at Cheltenham Festival (2 exceptions missed Cheltenham that year & other 2 were7th in Champion Hurdle & 9th in Supreme)
4 of 10 winners contested a 2M grade 1 at that year’s Punchestown Festival

Other Races

Highest placed finisher from last year: 4P236 (0-1-5)
Highest placed finisher from Supreme Novices' Hurdle: 131211 (4-1-6)
Anniversary 4yo Hurdle winner (Apple's Jade): 3 (0-1-1)
British Stallion Studs EFB Novice Hurdle winner (North Hill Harvey): 5 (0-0-1)
Morebattle Hurdle winner (Top Notch): 6 (0-0-1)
Elite Hurdle winner (Sceau Royal): 65356 (0-0-5)
4 of 7 second season hurdler winners ran in that's year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle, finishing 2129
2 of 7 second season hurdler winners ran in WKD Hurdle, finishing 21
2 of 7 second season hurdler winners ran in Herald Champion Novice Hurdle, finishing 24
2 of 7 second season hurdler winners ran in Top Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Christmas Hurdle, finishing 442
2 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 51
2 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle, finishing 37
2 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Hurdle, finishing 21

Trainers
Nicky Henderson (2-2-6) has trained the winner three times since 2000 (’01, ’08 & ‘13).
Henry de Bromhead (1-0-1) won this with Identity Thief in 2015.
Paul Nicholls (1-0-4) won the race for first time ever in 2014 with Irving.
Irish-trained runners (3-3-15) have won it 4 of last 12, though, 3 of 4 were provided by Noel Meade.

Price
8 of 10 winners came from first 2 in the betting & were priced 4/1 or shorter
Favourite has won 4 of last 10 but shows a level stakes loss of 2.15.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5 or 6
- Finished in the first 2 last time out (posting RPR of 146+)
- Previously run in 4 to 9 hurdles (or previous winner of the Fighting Fifth)
- Won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
- Second or third season hurdler
- Officially rated 149+
- Finished in first 5 in a grade 1 at Punchestown Festival or
- Won at 2016 Cheltenham and/or Aintree Festivals
- Horse that ran well in 2016 Supreme Novices' Hurdle should be respected
- Trained by Nicky Henderson or Henry De Bromhead
 
"When she won by a huge margin last season, Aintree was very soft and she was not letting herself down on the ground at Down Royal."She is not at Gordon's long at all - about a month after leaving Willie Mullins. She wasn't fit: she gave a heave. We hope to see the benefit of that and plenty of improvement now.

"One wouldn't know a horse in four weeks. Both (Mullins and Elliott) are brilliant trainers - I've nothing against either - but it's hard to get to know a horse in four weeks. She'll likely run Saturday pending a successful scope."
Click to expand...

Eddie O'Leary on Apple's jade
 
I'm prepared to question how fit she would have been on her return given Willie had her through the summer and if he still had her it's only round about now she'd be ready to run.

and despite being hugely disappointing on the face of it at Down Royal she still finished in front of Petit Mouchoir, receives an extra 5lb on Saturday and gets her ground this time.

She'll take some beating IMO but I wouldn't be surprised to see Hidden Cyclone outrun his 16/1 odds.
 
Funny old world!...I didn't know Apples Jade had run this season so you can imaging my surprise when I saw her quoted at 3/1 after some had been touting her for the Champion Hurdle on here.
I believe I pointed out that the difference between the poor Triumph she won and The Champion Hurdle is like jumping the Grand Canyon. She is a nice filly though with a bright future

Nothing surprises me about good horses losing first time up especially at this easy stage. Yanworth struggled the other day to beat a horse he'd normally carry round.

I took a liking to Sceaux Royal last season and thought he might win the Triumph but it wasn't to be but he's got off to a flyer.

Cooper's choice indicates his mount has come on since his last run and his form might actually be the best in the race with his second to Buveur D'Air.

However I am going for Apple Jade because this is not a good race and we have seen what she can do to moderate opposition.

None of the others would be sighted in a Champion Hurdle but she just might turn out good enough to run in one.
 
Marble said:
APPLES' JADE is my bet if she turns up. Soft going is a possibility as there was a lot of rain earlier in the week.

I'll be attending, if any other forum people are there then let me know.

Five In A Row looks interesting in the Rehearsal Chase.
Click to expand...

Still keen on Apples Jade.

Also considering KATKEAU in the Rehearsal Chase now that the final declarations have been made.
I feel he is a few pound ahead of his mark. He goes on soft, and I like him having a 3 pound claimer on board.
 
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I must say, the more I look at this race the more it confuses me. PM has only won once over hurdles - on debut when 1/5, and Cooper choosing him over AJ must tell us something. However, If I believe what my eyes have seen so far this year, then Sceau Royal looks the one, yet finished 25 & 50 lengths behind AJ last year at Chelt & Aintree respectively. Token bet on Sceau Royal purely based on recent/current form.
 
PM is a bit immature. Not the easiest of rides. Had his pipe opener now and conditions should suit. He will need further in time but won't give the 4 year olds an easy time of it.

If AJ hadn't of bombed in Downroyal, she would be evens tomorrow
 
Irving is a bit of a dog at times, but I'd be tempted by the price tomorrow. At his best, he'd be good enough to win this, presuming Apple's Jade doesn't bounce back.
 
Yeah a family member who is a better judge than myself likes Irving. I smell a reverse forecast (with Apples Jade).
 
am I dreaming AJ current fav? I defended her on here for what she did at Aintree would've smoked any juvenile champion I can think of, but still she's now in open company and Sceau Royal has improved massively and deserves to be fav against her. He's now an 160 hurdler giving her 7lbs, but the thing to take into account is the way he's been going he could still improve and AJ even if she returns back to her best will find it hard. I get that 5/1 was value but now at 2/1 fav its very short.
 
Elliott only had Apples Jade for two weeks when he ran her first time out, so I think she should be forgiven that run. She was by far the best of the juveniles last season and she has an outstanding chance.

I prefer the form of the older novices from last season though and Petit Mouchoir mixed it with the best. He's also said to have strengthened up considerably since last season, and de Bromhead isn't known to throw darts. Many will say Cooper has picked the wrong one but presumably he's sat on both in the last week.

I see why people would back Irving. On his best form he has a great chance, but I couldn't touch him because you never know which Irving turns up. At his current price at a course and with conditions to suit I wouldn't be talking anyone out of a bet though.

Sceau Royal is hard to discount. He's been visually impressive, and won the last twice in good times, and he's clearly improved loads. But three races in quick succession could well take its toll, and on a line to Apples Jade I reckon he'd have to improve again if she's come back to herself.

I like Mirsaale and I reckon people are under rating him because of the stable he's in, but even so this looks a step too far, and I see him running another good race but finding one or two too good.

I've seen one or two giving Hidden Cyclone a chance. I don't see it myself though, and he's surely running to pick up a bit of prize money, or with an eye on a handicap over hurdles at the end of the season.

In summary, the dangers are clearly Sceau Royal and possibly Irving if he's on a going day, but the bet for me is a reverse forecast on Petit Mouchoir and Apples Jade.
 
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