Fighting Fifth weekend at Newcastele

That was a good run by Top Notch for a young horse, I thought he was doing a bit too much down the back and was expecting him to fold in the finishing straight.

Identity Thief made a balls of the last, just like he did in his previous race at Down Royal. We'll have to see if his jumping improves.
 
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Decent race but it's not worth a jot as regards Champion Hurdle form
Top Notch is just killing time, 3m chaser all day long.
 
Identify Thief was supplemented to this one ? Think this race will be a far stronger piece of form for the CH than the Hattons Grace.
 
Lets hope either Peace & Co or MTOY put in a performance otherwise the CH will be a Mullinsfest. Top Notch looks to be a decent yardstick but short of top class.
 
thats how WB finishes in a strongly run race, this is more proof to how muddling the pace in Morgiana was that he was still in top gear at the line.


<blockquote class="twitter-video" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Identity Thief just takes the Fighting Fifth in the closing stages. What a finish <a href="https://twitter.com/NewcastleRaces">@NewcastleRaces</a> <a href="https://t.co/MJEb4h2hEU">https://t.co/MJEb4h2hEU</a></p>— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) <a href="https://twitter.com/AtTheRaces/status/670605813791113216">November 28, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
I don't know why but after watching the Triumph replay and todays, it looks like Top Notch goes along with the horses that try to pass him. When P&C tried to pass him, they moved away from Hargam and others by many lengths, when Identity Thief tried to pass him he stuck with him and wnt away from WB. I think he's running to the level of the opponent that tries to go past him and they leave all others behind, no matter how good they are. He did the same with Irving...

There's a possibility he's very good but he holds back his best and we won't find out how good he really is if he won't be kept for the CH. I think he's up to that high level, its just that he gives up the lead easily but he sticks around forever and it would take a Faugheen to split from him in that late stage of the race when even if he surrenders the lead he keeps on finding more to stay with the horse that passed him.

I don't know how to use this info, betting wise.. maybe not bet E/w on horses that on form might place because Top Notch is holding back his form and might improve to pick up the place spot instead..
 
Aim him for the WH You've got Jacob riding him which can only be seen as a negative as the followers of Peace and Co (and I'm one, will find out).
 
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Not sure I follow you with Top Notch, Aughex.

I think he is ultra game and genuine - he just keeps running into slightly better horses (patently not fit when almost worrying Irving out of it at Haydock).

If you think he keeps some back, then an in-running Lay would be the betting strategy for you, no?
 
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Maybe he finds slightly better horses, but maybe he'll leave them behind when he'll stay along with an even better horse. He goes in front, whatever challenges him he goes along with, but simply doesn't want to get his own head in front. I don't know, its just a rubbish theory after watching his last 3 races, but I think he's a proper 2 miler and has a placing chance in the CH maybe even win with the right kind of luck.
 
It's the "doesn't want to" bit I disagree with - I think his attitude is thoroughly likeable myself.

Remember, he is only a 4yo and can still develop physically (albeit he is on the small side) and get better with more racing. It's far too early (and inaccurate) to be labelling him ungenuine, imo.
 
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