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Fighting Fifth weekend at Newcastele

Interesting race with Irving surely being asked to much of a question given how busy he's been. I like Hargam and backed him at 11/2 yesterday.
 
remembered my tent or yours won this a couple of years ago and now im wondering when we will see him out
 
I think Peace and Co goes for the Bula and MTOY will be seen at Kempton

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If Henry is supplementing then my ears are well and truly pricked. Identity Thief an ew penalty kick at the price.
 
hezz said:
If Henry is supplementing then my ears are well and truly pricked. Identity Thief an ew penalty kick at the price.
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Has plenty to find at the weights, though if you want to back now, you will at least get 8/1 (freely available) for your three-places each-way.
 
Yeah 8/1, 3 places, granted 1/5 the odds. I'm comfortable playing those odds all things considered.
 
I've tried hard to find a reason not to back Wicklow Brave in this, but Walsh leaving Ireland to ride a supplemented horse, where the owner also had the non-appearing ante-post favourite, screams "steering job" to me.

A look at his record will tell you that this is a race he can comfortably win on the best of his form, and I've decided that 7/4 could look like daylight-robbery at mid-day on Saturday.

Good thing.
 
The favourite is short enough.
I'd be concerned he's had too many hard races on the flat this year to be winning this.

Beltor is one to take him on with. You should forgive a horse just four years of age one average run, (Triumph Hurdle), because prior to that at Kempton he beat future winners All Yours (now rated 147) and Bivouac. As Beltor is rated 143, and a horse he smashed up two starts ago by five lengths to be rated above him now on 147, tells me there's still loads of improvement left in Beltor.
They could have gone for a race like the Greatwood with a mark that low, but obviously want run him here.
There could be stone(s) of improvement in Beltor.
 
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I was well premature taking Hargam for this:blink: but the weather forecast looked dry when I looked last weekend.

Price differential between Top Notch and Irving is excessive considering the former should come on for the run at Haydock.

Really not getting the fuss over Wicklow Brave. It's like punters are backing him because his stable jockey is coming over. Fcuk all that. He was massively flattered last time out.
 
Whilst he may have been flattered by his proximity to Faugheen LTO, it will only take a mid-150s performance to win this - something I think he will be capable of, given his performance in the County, and how far he left Plinth and Thomas Edison behind at Punchestown.

Connections have supplemented WB and re-routed their original runner - as well as Walsh travelling to take the ride. I think it's foolish not to take these combined factors into account, when assessing what is otherwise a glorified handicap.
 
7/4 is short. i'd take top notch but only one week between races worries me.

purple bay worth a flyer at 20s?
 
Grasshopper said:
it will only take a mid-150s performance to win this
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The OR's for the seven runners are...

Beltor 143
Identify Thief 154
Irving 162
Purple Bay 159
Top Notch 158
Wicklow Brave 166
Intense Tango 138

So I think it will take a mid 160's performance to win, imo.

Even if a horse could run to the mid 150's to win this, it makes the favourite even less value at current odds, as to date four opponents are already rated 150 +.

That doesn't even include the biggest likely improver in the field, and the winner.. Beltor. :)
 
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I don't know why PB is still in the betting, he won't take part on that soft going. And if Beltor is anywhere near the winner I think I'll give up.. :)
 
I'm there tomorrow, here's my preview, main fancies in bold, second preferences after that.

12:00 LUCEMATIC E/W - a lightly raced horse who has won three times first time out before. This should appreciate the step up in trip and soft or heavy going.
Iora Glas is another who looks interesting with 10:3 on its back.

12:30 TROUBLE IN PARIS drops down in trip. I hope they'll make use of that by running prominently or with the pace. He fared better with the tongue tie on last time.
Seventeen Black is unexposed and looks the pick of the rest.

1:00 ANOTHER BILL should come on leaps and bounds after last run, 5/1 is worth an interest.
Presenting Junior will improve a lot from the last run also.

1:30 FRANKIE'S PROMISE would have scored last time but fell at the business end. A 5 pound rise is not enough. Bonzo Bing will fare better dropped down in class with first time cheekpieces on.

2:05 BELTOR - Stones of improvement to come from this horse and can go close tomorrow.

2:40 FINAL ASSAULT Every right to win again here.
 
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I'm hoping Top Notch improves from his first run, he's still the pick at 9/2. WB in second for the 11/1 exacta ;) though I'm going to wait till PB is declared N/R..
 
marble said:
The OR's for the seven runners are...

Beltor 143
Identify Thief 154
Irving 162
Purple Bay 159
Top Notch 158
Wicklow Brave 166
Intense Tango 138

So I think it will take a mid 160's performance to win, imo.

Even if a horse could run to the mid 150's to win this, it makes the favourite even less value at current odds, as to date four opponents are already rated 150 +.

That doesn't even include the biggest likely improver in the field, and the winner.. Beltor. :)
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There are only two things you need to know about value. Firstly, it is personal, and secondly, you can't eat it (apparently).

I confess, I was expecting Top Notch to be an NR when I lumped-on Wicklow Brave, and he is a major worry, as I can't believe Hendo would run him again so quickly, if he hadn't come out of the race last weekend in tremendous shape. I have therefore had a saver on Henderson's yoke to cover my WB stake. Right or wrong, I think every other horse in the race is a phoney that is just waiting to be cuffed.
 
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Good performance from Identify Thief (the ba*stard) - I under-rated him. Wicklow Brave run as if they might have gone to the well once too often, but at least I called Irving right.

Really not sure what the form is worth, but the winner obviously comes into play for the Champion Hurdle. P&C's re-appearance, and Faugheen's run over Xmas, will hopefully clear things up a touch, as it's all a bit unfathomable to me right now.
 

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