Fiveforthree
- Thread starter Guest_
- Start date
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
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- 16,050
Good stuff, Galileo. I'd pretty much written this one off for the season.
U
useful
Guest
He should be up to winning a maiden hurdle, but the form of the main protagonists in last year's festival bumper have been found seriously wanting when upped in class.
As the RP Spotlight also points out, his Fairyhouse placed form has been let down by the furstrating Mick The Man and Sizing Africa. Genuine Pearl franked it but in soft looking summer bumpers so the jury is out on that one.
As for his debut win at Punchestown, the form is very poor apart from the subsequent win at Limerick in May of I Hear A Symphony - notable for the fact tyhe horse was sold later that month for 240,000 gns to Alan Petersen to be trained by Philip Hobbs.
Personally I couldn't have him at 11/10 today, although he should win.
As the RP Spotlight also points out, his Fairyhouse placed form has been let down by the furstrating Mick The Man and Sizing Africa. Genuine Pearl franked it but in soft looking summer bumpers so the jury is out on that one.
As for his debut win at Punchestown, the form is very poor apart from the subsequent win at Limerick in May of I Hear A Symphony - notable for the fact tyhe horse was sold later that month for 240,000 gns to Alan Petersen to be trained by Philip Hobbs.
Personally I couldn't have him at 11/10 today, although he should win.
rorydelargy
At the Start
Hardly a great ride by Ruby it must be said. Jury still out here.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
I was on the third horse (Beroni), and could not believe the start that Ruby gave the JP horse.
I think the winner will turn out to be pretty decent.
I think the winner will turn out to be pretty decent.
He couldn’t have done much more on his belated novice start after clearly having his problems. Obviously plenty to prove, but what horse wouldn’t have something to prove after just one run.
I like the way after two momentum stop mistakes he quickly got going again. Further he goes the better.
I like the way after two momentum stop mistakes he quickly got going again. Further he goes the better.
He could have jumped well Galileo.
Plenty of gears. Enough toe to be of interest in the Supreme Novices but wont get anywhere jumping the way that he did. Would be interesting if they were to squeeze in another run before the festival. Might be better off waiting for Fariyhouse and Punchestown.
Silly ride by Ruby, but he probably knew what he had underneath him.
U
useful
Guest
A typically terrible hold up ride by Walsh. The horse got him off the hook.
Sheer speed won that race, and the tactics of Walsh meant the horse's jumping was put under unecessary pressure.
Why he has to insist on such tactics God only knows. He had only two real rivals in the race and let them get too far ahead.
Sheer speed won that race, and the tactics of Walsh meant the horse's jumping was put under unecessary pressure.
Why he has to insist on such tactics God only knows. He had only two real rivals in the race and let them get too far ahead.
Gaz's Way De Solzen
Apprentice
Was very impressive i have to say, got to the lead and didn't look like he was stopping either.
If he hadn't have hit the last fence so hard too, he would have won by further.
Nice performance.
If he hadn't have hit the last fence so hard too, he would have won by further.
Nice performance.
U
useful
Guest
Fred's Benefit was much nearer the pace than Fiveforthree, and he also benefited from the sad demise of Arrive Sir Clive, still going well when breaking down. Dropping out is probably easier to get away with over longer distances. Doing it over 2 miles is gambling that you have a serious engine underneath you and that the horse can jump at speed on his firsy attempt at hurdles.
Didn't watch the first race I must confess.
Nevertheless, I think his tactics on 543 were unecessarily exaggerated considering he only had two realistice dangers. If he had sat in thrid behind them he could have picked them off early in the straight and never have come off the bridle. This would not have placed so much strain on his jumping.
Anyway, the 543 form gets a test today at Chepstow when the ridiculously expensive I Hear A Symphony makes his UK debut - 2nd to 543 on debut at Punchestown.
Didn't watch the first race I must confess.
Nevertheless, I think his tactics on 543 were unecessarily exaggerated considering he only had two realistice dangers. If he had sat in thrid behind them he could have picked them off early in the straight and never have come off the bridle. This would not have placed so much strain on his jumping.
Anyway, the 543 form gets a test today at Chepstow when the ridiculously expensive I Hear A Symphony makes his UK debut - 2nd to 543 on debut at Punchestown.
It was an over confident ride but I think it highlights how much Ruby felt he had under him, and he was right.
Fair enough comment Garney, the horse could have jumped the last two better but I thought bar those two hurdles he had jumped really well before then.
I like him a lot and his trainers comments in the paper this morning sound very encouraging, would prefer to see him over the longer distance though.
Fair enough comment Garney, the horse could have jumped the last two better but I thought bar those two hurdles he had jumped really well before then.
I like him a lot and his trainers comments in the paper this morning sound very encouraging, would prefer to see him over the longer distance though.
U
useful
Guest
Garney say what you mean instead of being cryptic all the time.
Where have I stated the Cheltenham bumper form means zero?
Where have I stated the Cheltenham bumper form means zero?
Colin Phillips
At the Start
.........and, do you think that is good advice, Gal?
I like the horse (Fiveforthree) but I would like to see him again to judge his jumping. I believe he is going to run this Sunday in a winners race at Leopardstown so we might learn something more then.
As for Paddytheplasterer, he is a lovely horse. Similar to Aran Concerto in the sense he looks like a chaser in the making and the question must be will this be too much for him at this stage of his career.
As for Paddytheplasterer, he is a lovely horse. Similar to Aran Concerto in the sense he looks like a chaser in the making and the question must be will this be too much for him at this stage of his career.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Cheers, Gal, I haven't seen much Irish racing this season and I am going to be struggling to judge the strength of the challenge this year.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
They might take one or two of the five novice hurdles. I think the crop is decent and has a lot of depth this year.
They could win one novice chase, but I think a lot of this year's better horses from Ireland are 2m4f creatures.
There will be an Irish Champion Hurdle winner.
No chance in the Gold Cup, Champion Chase or World Hurdle.
Decent chance in the Ryanair and Champion Bumper.
They could be weighted out of it in the handicap hurdles, but the chasers may provide a handicap winner.
Likelihood is that there will be 4 or 5 winners.
They could win one novice chase, but I think a lot of this year's better horses from Ireland are 2m4f creatures.
There will be an Irish Champion Hurdle winner.
No chance in the Gold Cup, Champion Chase or World Hurdle.
Decent chance in the Ryanair and Champion Bumper.
They could be weighted out of it in the handicap hurdles, but the chasers may provide a handicap winner.
Likelihood is that there will be 4 or 5 winners.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Thanks, Bar, would you like to insert the names now?! 
It wouldn't surprise me if Tranquil Sea was able to reverse form with Forpadydeplasterer if they end up in the same race. You'd want Cork All Star to run well in the supreme novices for either of them. You could probably sneak a couple of points value if you had your pc set up to press the final "back" button on the two of them as Cork All Star whizzes clear or just forget about it if he's back in the ruck.
I hope this post isn't too long to trawl through but someone urgently needs to speak to connections of Forpaddydeplasterer.
I think the Ballymore is a mistake for Forpaddydeplasterer as well Gal, but for entirely different reasons. He's looked tailor made for the Supreme all season, and that was confirmed by his win in the Deloitte Novices. Deloitte winners have an outstanding record in the Supreme. It's been a very good guide in previous seasons with the likes of Brave Inca and Like a Butterfly using it as a stepping stone. On the flip side it's sometimes been the case that the winner has gone off favourite and been turned over on the day with the likes of Colonel Braxton and Youllneverwalkalone. But to be fair of the four runners who have contested this in recent seasons two have won The Supreme and the other two finshed 2nd and 3rd. Not a bad record! On the other side of the coin though the last three winners have headed for the SA/Ballymore Hurdle and have been turned over when they may have been better served by going down the Supreme route. Alexander Banquet did the same thing, so trends suggest that the winner of this won't win the Ballymore but will be either favourite or close to favourite on the day. Aran Concerto finished 5th, Mr Nosie 4th, Royal Paradise 7th and Alexander Banquet 7th, with three of the four going off at shortish prices on the day.
NH bred horses like Forpaddydeplasterer have a very good record in the Supreme, and horses like Hors La Loi III, Best Mate, Like A Butterfly, Back In Front, Kicking King, Brave Inca and War of Attrition are hardly a reason to bypass the race in favour of the Ballymore either. Their subsequent performances also suggest that actually a good NH bred horse will thrive on the race rather than find it a test too far early on in their career
In a normal year (last year wasn't), they normally go an end to end gallop and it really is a test of both speed and stamina, and unless there is an absolute stand out flat bred that has proved it can perform under those conditions I would side with the NH bred who has already done it any time and Forpaddydeplasterer fits the bill perfectly after the Deloitte where he confirmed his previous form with Cork All Star. The Deloitte tends to be a particularly reliable guide in my opinion because of the fast run pace over an extra two furlongs which replicates more of what can be expected in terms of the blend of speed and stamina required for The Supreme. A check back at previous winners of the Supreme tells you that a remarkable number had won beyond two miles in at least one of their prep races.
I will add something courstesy of Warbler. Warbler has been doing some work around debut and final prep windows. And in the last ten years all bar Arcalis have conformed to a key set of criteria in terms of when they debuted over hurdles and when they had their final prep. If he is right, and I have no reason to believe he isn't, there are only three enties in the top half of the market which conform to his findings. They are Pasco, Group Captain and Forpaddydeplasterer. There is logic to his findings. Essentially it produces a list of horses who have had sufficient time to be schooled very well and to have proven their ability to hurdle fluently without having been on the go for too long over the season, and on the other hand are still fresh enough and have been trained to peak at the Festival. Of the three qualifiers Group Captain is certain now to go for the Ballymore, and Pasco doesn't look good enough, but may be worth a small saver if you rely on stats. I'll leave it to Warbler whether he chooses to expand.
Connections of Forpaddydeplasterer have said they may not come to the Festival because they are concerned about the ground. But if they opt for the Supreme they will get the best ground they could wish for. It could be Tom Cooper is worried because of what he hears of Cheltenham underfoot conditions, but he will get genuine good to soft ground for the Supreme so surely their is no excuse.
I'm sure Cantoris won't mind me sharing with you why Brave Inca went for The Supreme. There was a simlar line of thought with Inca about going for the SA Hurdle, but the decision to go for the Supreme was made to go for the more suitable ground on the first race on Tuesday. He could just as easily ended up in the SA Hurdle and perhaps he would have been another of those horses from the Deloitte that fell short. If that were the case it would have been more likely he would have gone over fences th following season and they wouldn't have had a future Champion Hurlde winner on their hands! The same decision and the same reasoning is there is now for Tom Cooper, Charlie Chorke and the rest of Forpaddydeplasterer's syndicate. they have the same temptation to bypass the Festival alltogether on ground fears, and the Ballymore is considered the more likely option if he does go, but can I suggest that the decision that Colm, Cantoris and Co made to run in the Supreme is one they have never regretted!!!
If anyone has the urge to send this to Tom Cooper or Charlie Chorke please don't resist!!!!
I think the Ballymore is a mistake for Forpaddydeplasterer as well Gal, but for entirely different reasons. He's looked tailor made for the Supreme all season, and that was confirmed by his win in the Deloitte Novices. Deloitte winners have an outstanding record in the Supreme. It's been a very good guide in previous seasons with the likes of Brave Inca and Like a Butterfly using it as a stepping stone. On the flip side it's sometimes been the case that the winner has gone off favourite and been turned over on the day with the likes of Colonel Braxton and Youllneverwalkalone. But to be fair of the four runners who have contested this in recent seasons two have won The Supreme and the other two finshed 2nd and 3rd. Not a bad record! On the other side of the coin though the last three winners have headed for the SA/Ballymore Hurdle and have been turned over when they may have been better served by going down the Supreme route. Alexander Banquet did the same thing, so trends suggest that the winner of this won't win the Ballymore but will be either favourite or close to favourite on the day. Aran Concerto finished 5th, Mr Nosie 4th, Royal Paradise 7th and Alexander Banquet 7th, with three of the four going off at shortish prices on the day.
NH bred horses like Forpaddydeplasterer have a very good record in the Supreme, and horses like Hors La Loi III, Best Mate, Like A Butterfly, Back In Front, Kicking King, Brave Inca and War of Attrition are hardly a reason to bypass the race in favour of the Ballymore either. Their subsequent performances also suggest that actually a good NH bred horse will thrive on the race rather than find it a test too far early on in their career
In a normal year (last year wasn't), they normally go an end to end gallop and it really is a test of both speed and stamina, and unless there is an absolute stand out flat bred that has proved it can perform under those conditions I would side with the NH bred who has already done it any time and Forpaddydeplasterer fits the bill perfectly after the Deloitte where he confirmed his previous form with Cork All Star. The Deloitte tends to be a particularly reliable guide in my opinion because of the fast run pace over an extra two furlongs which replicates more of what can be expected in terms of the blend of speed and stamina required for The Supreme. A check back at previous winners of the Supreme tells you that a remarkable number had won beyond two miles in at least one of their prep races.
I will add something courstesy of Warbler. Warbler has been doing some work around debut and final prep windows. And in the last ten years all bar Arcalis have conformed to a key set of criteria in terms of when they debuted over hurdles and when they had their final prep. If he is right, and I have no reason to believe he isn't, there are only three enties in the top half of the market which conform to his findings. They are Pasco, Group Captain and Forpaddydeplasterer. There is logic to his findings. Essentially it produces a list of horses who have had sufficient time to be schooled very well and to have proven their ability to hurdle fluently without having been on the go for too long over the season, and on the other hand are still fresh enough and have been trained to peak at the Festival. Of the three qualifiers Group Captain is certain now to go for the Ballymore, and Pasco doesn't look good enough, but may be worth a small saver if you rely on stats. I'll leave it to Warbler whether he chooses to expand.
Connections of Forpaddydeplasterer have said they may not come to the Festival because they are concerned about the ground. But if they opt for the Supreme they will get the best ground they could wish for. It could be Tom Cooper is worried because of what he hears of Cheltenham underfoot conditions, but he will get genuine good to soft ground for the Supreme so surely their is no excuse.
I'm sure Cantoris won't mind me sharing with you why Brave Inca went for The Supreme. There was a simlar line of thought with Inca about going for the SA Hurdle, but the decision to go for the Supreme was made to go for the more suitable ground on the first race on Tuesday. He could just as easily ended up in the SA Hurdle and perhaps he would have been another of those horses from the Deloitte that fell short. If that were the case it would have been more likely he would have gone over fences th following season and they wouldn't have had a future Champion Hurlde winner on their hands! The same decision and the same reasoning is there is now for Tom Cooper, Charlie Chorke and the rest of Forpaddydeplasterer's syndicate. they have the same temptation to bypass the Festival alltogether on ground fears, and the Ballymore is considered the more likely option if he does go, but can I suggest that the decision that Colm, Cantoris and Co made to run in the Supreme is one they have never regretted!!!
If anyone has the urge to send this to Tom Cooper or Charlie Chorke please don't resist!!!!