I still find it odd that trainers still have horses entered in the 2 mile novice, the 2 mile 5 novice and the 3 mile novice. Surely the preparation is at least slightly different depending on which race you want to enter?
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Fiveforthree
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Forpadytheplasterer is a different type of horse though IMO. Brave Inca had the pace to be a two mile champion….which was shown even in the Supreme novices when he cruised all the way to the bottom of the hill before scrapping it out.
Forpaddytheplaster on the other hand relishes a test of stamina and I think he would be taken off his feet in the Supreme.
Edit: Fiveforthree does not run on Sunday.
Forpaddytheplaster on the other hand relishes a test of stamina and I think he would be taken off his feet in the Supreme.
Edit: Fiveforthree does not run on Sunday.
Colin Phillips
Dormant account
Mel. they just do it to confuse the market! 
I guess this the crux of where we disagree Gal. A Supreme, or even a Champion Hurdle aren't usually won by speed horses. Inca for example is theoretically perfectly bred to be a two and half to three mile chaser, and even in his Supreme days you'd have thought chasing would be his game. So many Champion Hurdle winners exibit as much stamina as they do speed. Istabraq and Hardy were both capable of winning a Sun Alliance Hurdle before returning to two miles to win their Champion Hurdles.
I was particularly impressed by the way Forpadydeplasterer cruised up easily to take the lead in the Deloitte off a decent pace which suggests he's got gears, in fact he seemed to be going easily all the way. He won a touch cosily in the end and looked to have improved significantly since his previous race. Probably most crucially his hurdling was very good at speed.
Don't forget also that he's no younger than Sizing Europe, although less experienced. Until the Greatwood there was talk about Sizing Europe going over fences and perhaps stepping up in trip until they realised that a fast pace or a true run two miles at a stiff course brings out the best in him and he is now favourite for the big one. Essentially he relishes a test of stamina over two miles. He'd would however be vulnerable to something with flat speed in a slow run race, and my feeling is exactly the same applies to FPdP albeit in novice grade rather than open company at this stage.
It's also worth pointing out that the Royal Bond/Deloitte hurdle form ties Muirhead in too, and Cork all Star runs through the middle of it which gives it a good solid feel whether be over two miles or an extended two miles.
I was particularly impressed by the way Forpadydeplasterer cruised up easily to take the lead in the Deloitte off a decent pace which suggests he's got gears, in fact he seemed to be going easily all the way. He won a touch cosily in the end and looked to have improved significantly since his previous race. Probably most crucially his hurdling was very good at speed.
Don't forget also that he's no younger than Sizing Europe, although less experienced. Until the Greatwood there was talk about Sizing Europe going over fences and perhaps stepping up in trip until they realised that a fast pace or a true run two miles at a stiff course brings out the best in him and he is now favourite for the big one. Essentially he relishes a test of stamina over two miles. He'd would however be vulnerable to something with flat speed in a slow run race, and my feeling is exactly the same applies to FPdP albeit in novice grade rather than open company at this stage.
It's also worth pointing out that the Royal Bond/Deloitte hurdle form ties Muirhead in too, and Cork all Star runs through the middle of it which gives it a good solid feel whether be over two miles or an extended two miles.
Agree to an extent. But you need to be able to travel and jump at pace. Brave Inca is a different type to Forpadydeplasterer. He was more mature physically, he had 9 runs before Cheltenham compared to Forpadydeplasterer’s 4 runs (where he has be noted to hang and run a bit green still) and he had better tactical pace early on.
Undoubtably impressive but things will be happening altogether differently in a big field, an undulating track and on faster going. The further he went at Leopardstown the better he looked.
Also while you draw references to Sizing Europe and Brave Inca, I have no doubt Forpadydeplasterer will be over fences next season whatever he does over hurdles. He is that type of horse.
archie
Senior Jockey
Captain Cee Bee is the one that I like for the Supreme Novice. Seems to have improved steadily and, while I'd have preferred him to have had a recent run, it would have been on dreadful going and might have scuppered his Cheltenham chance.
I think he was a tipping line gamble a few weeks ago Andrew which has resulted him in being very short for this. Coupled with their liabilities already is the fact bookies are probably weary of letting a JP McManus Irish trained horse going off too big for the opening race. He wouldn’t appeal to me at his current price for sure.
He seems to me as though he's at the head of the market almost by default and the form of his two wins doesn't look anything to get particularly excited about. His first run he beat Jered who Muirhead stuffed subsequently in the Royal Bond. He then easily beat Leading Run in his second but that one is still a maiden over hurdles after ten attempts and he's looked regressive this season. He couldn't have won any better than he did though and is unexposed. I wouldn't say he can't win this but 8/1 at this stage looks a false price for what he's actually achieved especially when you consider he hasn't been near a racecourse since November. I would prefer the chances of Muirhead on formlines at similar prices, but again he has something to prove after being off course for so long. He does have that Royal Bond to his name which keeps coming back through the best Irish formlines though.
archie
Senior Jockey
I agree that he's at the head of the market by default but the opposition just doesn't look that strong if you take the view that horses that run in the Champion Bumper are more likely to be suited by a longer trip. The money would indicate that Forpadydeplasterer is more likely to run in the Ballymore and Muirhead was arguably lucky to beat Cork All Star. In a race that usually goes to Ireland that brings you back to the Captain.
I think Muirhead will prove to be a better hurdler then Cork All Star.In his last two races he has looked in serious trouble only to find plenty when needed.I fancy him strongly for the Supreme and the 9/1 with a run is a generous price.
N
Nashwan
Guest
Some interesting points. I thought I would have a trwal through my favourite site, the RP database and check the situation out.
It is fair to say Deloitte Winners have as outstanding a record in the Royal & SunAlliance Hurdle as they do in the Supreme Novices:
Since 1992 (when records on the RP site go back to for the Deloitte) 2 Deloitte winners have won the Supreme - Brave Inca and Like-A-Butterfly and two have won the RSA - Danoli and Istabraq.
Interestingly since 1990 2 Tolworth Hurdle winners have won the Supreme so this is as likely a source of a Supreme winner as the Deloitte.
Of the other Deloitte runners to contest the Supreme, one managed a win, Tourist Attraction who had previously finished 3rd in the Deloitte in 1995.
In addition to Istabraq and Danoli, the RSA winner Hardy Eustace had finished second to Solerina in the 2003 Deloitte.
Of all the other Deloitte winners since 1992 to go to Cheltenham the finishing positions at the Festival were: Supreme; 3rd, 7th, 4th. RSA; 5th, 4th, 7th, 7th, 10th.
It seems that there is no significant evidence to suggest Deloitte winners festival chances are enhanced by going for the Supreme over the RSA.
The Supreme has seen some decent horses win or contest it. However the RSA also has a list of notable horses including Denman, Racing Demon, Inglis Drever, Hi Cloy, Bindaree, Barton, Behrajan, Kings Road, Lady Rebecca, Strong Promise, Brief Gale, Morceli, Doran's Pride, Barton Bank, Nick The Brief, Morley Street, Toby Tobias, The West Awake, Ten Plus, Sabin Du Loir, Drumlargan, Davy Lad and Brown Lad.
The Champion Hurdle has been won by decent ex-flat horses such as Alderbrook and Royal Gait. Neither of these contested Novice Hurdles at the Festival. I think that the increase in prizes and pattern status of the winter All-Weather programme has seen less and less decent flat horses going hurdling which means the novice hurdles at the festival are contested by predominantly National Hunt types be it over 2m or 2m 5f. So horses like Brave Inca and War Of Attrition would have probably fought out the finish whatever event they had run in.
For the record, Colonel Braxton never ran at Cheltenham as a hurdler, although he won the Deloitte Hurdle. This was because in his novice season Cheltenham was abandoned because of foot and mouth.
I think Forpadydeplasterer appeared to relish the extra 2 furlongs of the Deloitte and as he appears to enjoy plenty of cut, I would have thought 2 miles in good ground at Cheltenham would not play to his strengths.
Problem with Fivefourthree?
It looks like he was matched at 50 today, albeit for very little. 19 offered, no takers at less than 38.
Edit: Ah, there seems to have been a small move for him in the Ballymore Properties race at the same time. Possibly considering going for a race where Ruby will be available to ride him?
It looks like he was matched at 50 today, albeit for very little. 19 offered, no takers at less than 38.
Edit: Ah, there seems to have been a small move for him in the Ballymore Properties race at the same time. Possibly considering going for a race where Ruby will be available to ride him?
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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Ruby will surely be on either Breedsbreeze or The Tother One for Nicholls in the Ballymore?
Plans for Fivefourthree are stiull very up in the air, or so I read today in the RP:
<< TRAINER Willie Mullins has said that it was a "distinct possibility" that Fiveforthree could be diverted to the Ballymore Properties' Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham next week from the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
The son of Arzanni is as short as 8-1with Bet365 for the Anglo Irish Bank-sponsored Supreme but Mullins said that no firm decision had been made about his participation in the race.
He said: "I'll look at what I have for each race, and I would have to say at this stage that I will be keeping my options open for as long as I can." >>
<< TRAINER Willie Mullins has said that it was a "distinct possibility" that Fiveforthree could be diverted to the Ballymore Properties' Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham next week from the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
The son of Arzanni is as short as 8-1with Bet365 for the Anglo Irish Bank-sponsored Supreme but Mullins said that no firm decision had been made about his participation in the race.
He said: "I'll look at what I have for each race, and I would have to say at this stage that I will be keeping my options open for as long as I can." >>
I have taken the 16/1 available NRNB on Fivefourthree for the Ballymore. If he was 12/1 for the Supreme surely he should be shorter than 12/1 in a race that has less strength in depth? Maybe it is marginally the better race for an inexperienced horse too.
That said it's very hard to have any confidence in him on what we have seen so far which doesn't really amount to a hill of beans.
I'm probably stretching things a bit here, but I've also taken the view that, even if he does end up in the Supreme, this is a positive for Rippling Ring and have backed him as well. I don't believe that Mullins has learned anything mind blowing about the horse in the last few days regarding the horses ability to stay, so I'm guessing Ruby has had some influence on the decision, or indecision.
That said, neither will be main bet for either event, I like something that i can get a better hold on. I just think it's worth keeping them onside.
That said it's very hard to have any confidence in him on what we have seen so far which doesn't really amount to a hill of beans.
I'm probably stretching things a bit here, but I've also taken the view that, even if he does end up in the Supreme, this is a positive for Rippling Ring and have backed him as well. I don't believe that Mullins has learned anything mind blowing about the horse in the last few days regarding the horses ability to stay, so I'm guessing Ruby has had some influence on the decision, or indecision.
That said, neither will be main bet for either event, I like something that i can get a better hold on. I just think it's worth keeping them onside.
simmo
Senior Jockey
I am a firm believer in trends, and the Supreme has some strong ones. Flat bred vs NH bred isn't one of them - of the last 10 winners, 5 had a flat rating in excess of 80 and 5 were NH bred.
The trends that I believe to be the most significant (and have logic to back them up) are as follows:
should have had 2 to 4 runs that season - the logic - 1 run isnt enough experience and 5+ runs leaves them over exposed?? (Unless of course they are exposed as being outstanding!!!!)
9 out of 10 won last time out - the logic - the horse is in good form and on an upward curve (interestingly the only one not to have won LTO is Arcalis who had finished 3rd in open company behind Harchibald I think? - if he'd been running in novice company would that still have been a 1?)
9 out of 10 had recorded an RPR in excess of 130 - the logic - they have already displayed a significant level of ability, coupled with their being lightly raced giving them more scope for further improvement from an already decent level.
And lastly - every one of the last 10 had raced since the turn of the year. This is the one that I trust the least - whilst there is fitness based logic there, it is perfectly possible to turn them out at their best after a longer gap.
So what does that do to the top 15 in the betting (longest price in the last 10 years was joint 9th in the betting).
The answer - removes all of them except Sentry Duty, Binocular, Group Captain and Pasco. 2 of those almost certainly have other appointments and Sentry Duty could join them, although it's possible that JP could go for this one with Franchoek as his rep in the Triumph?
So, if Sentry Duty runs he wins. (Nothing like pre-Cheltenham confidence is there)
I wouldn't be averse to backing Binocular either if he turns up.
The trends that I believe to be the most significant (and have logic to back them up) are as follows:
should have had 2 to 4 runs that season - the logic - 1 run isnt enough experience and 5+ runs leaves them over exposed?? (Unless of course they are exposed as being outstanding!!!!)
9 out of 10 won last time out - the logic - the horse is in good form and on an upward curve (interestingly the only one not to have won LTO is Arcalis who had finished 3rd in open company behind Harchibald I think? - if he'd been running in novice company would that still have been a 1?)
9 out of 10 had recorded an RPR in excess of 130 - the logic - they have already displayed a significant level of ability, coupled with their being lightly raced giving them more scope for further improvement from an already decent level.
And lastly - every one of the last 10 had raced since the turn of the year. This is the one that I trust the least - whilst there is fitness based logic there, it is perfectly possible to turn them out at their best after a longer gap.
So what does that do to the top 15 in the betting (longest price in the last 10 years was joint 9th in the betting).
The answer - removes all of them except Sentry Duty, Binocular, Group Captain and Pasco. 2 of those almost certainly have other appointments and Sentry Duty could join them, although it's possible that JP could go for this one with Franchoek as his rep in the Triumph?
So, if Sentry Duty runs he wins. (Nothing like pre-Cheltenham confidence is there)
I wouldn't be averse to backing Binocular either if he turns up.
simmo
Senior Jockey
Oh, another factor I like to look at with the whole trends thing is the Venn factor. How many winners are being removed through all of these 9 out of the last 10's. the answer in this case is 2 - Ebaziyan and Arcalis. 8 out of 10 ain't bad. Level stakes on all qualifiers would provide a healthy profit.
I backed Khyber Kim for the Supreme a while ago and haven't yet had another bet, tho I almost certainly will. I'm veering towards Pigeon Island - as tough as they come and Twister has said he will go for it - and he's one of those horses who bucks all the trends!. Sentry Duty is currently my alternative
I've already backed Group Captain at 9.2 for the Ballymore - he's currently 7.2 but I may back up
I've already backed Group Captain at 9.2 for the Ballymore - he's currently 7.2 but I may back up
simmo
Senior Jockey
Trends aside, he does have the highest recorded RPR in the race (just). However, I would be very disappointed if at least one of the potential improvers couldn't find the few lbs required to get him beat on his best form.
rorydelargy
Dormant account
I'm fairly certain Pasco will run in the Supreme and he looks excellent value at 20's.
