Flat Season 2012 - An Attempt To Profit Maximize

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Bruce_Savage

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Good evening,

Without cluttering the main forum I have a lot to say for myself which requires a degree of restraint in order to retain a level of decorum in the main forum and pro actively avoid nuisance threads.

I will attempt to make £30,000 this Flat Season 2012 with a bank of £500. but anything over my monetary base will be a result although I'd like to aim for at least maximizing my investment by ten fold - I'm very deep on Ante Post selections which is why I'm starting off with such a low bank but I do intend to increase stakes as the winners start to flow throughout the season.

There was once a famous old man who told me that he'd rather miss a winner than back a loser - epitomizes being stringent to your policies and to not get to downhearted when you face excruciating 50/50 decisions.

The long run is vital, jumping in at the deep end early on will only result in you sinking but I'd rather sink knowing that my betting was placed on the right horse, in the right conditions under the right circumstances - it helps you sleep better at night and more importantly you can say you held a level of discipline that meant you controlled your inhibitions within your means.

I will go through day by day and pick up on horses who I feel could be worth waiting for when getting the right conditions and attempt to find a profit maximizing solution.

Having spent the last 2 months aside from my studies in building and updating my platform of information I feel that all systems are go for the current Flat Season 2012, everything seems to be in place to start building up knowledge right from the beginning.

There are potential hazards approaching, The Winter Derby, The Lincoln, The Irish Lincolnshire, The Dubai Festival which all pose excruciating demands on disciplinary control given the value on offer these races are out of season and pose their own threats within themselves for shock results especially if you haven't got the data behind you to make a confident and expert decision.

The current format I'm working off was originally devised about 10 years ago which has taken some time in bringing back up to date but all things look good after a few trial runs this winter with it. What I have found that once a historic event has occurred for example a horse running 5 furlongs in 58 seconds and expecting that same event to occur is literally impossible - what has happened has happened so to speak. This is where I believe my edge lies, it's developing scenarios from the information of the historic event to picture future events whereby you can place horses in different conditions for example; I can tell if a horse will be suited by a stronger pace or a slower pace, what the race dynamics have showed i.e does it highlight a potential race of horses who need stepping up in trip or visa verse stepping down in trip, does the race dynamics indicate that a horse may be suited by faster ground or maybe a stiffer test of course - all this information has potential values, by knowing what a potential improvement is with a figure you can apply that to different scenario's for example; I may add 10 points onto the historic figure of a horse assuming improvement will come with a slower run race or an easier course.

With this additional approach, I am very confident of a successful season and hope maybe some of you might join in on a few betting propositions if I can prove my worth, trust and loyalty in the forth coming months.
 
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Here we go then, a perfect example of stumbling across a bet over at Jebel Ali racecourse today.

I'm interested in the form of a horse called Hadba who run at Meydan on the 3rd of March over 9 and half furlongs. The situation I'm faced with is that the historic figure would have been greater if the race was run slower and the race dynamics are telling me that there is a massive improvement of 11 points for a step down in trip but this has to be paired with another condition of either testing ground or a testing course.

In the 1205 there are no less than five horses representing the Hadba race, all reappearing again.

1a. Slow race
1b. Drop in trip
1c. Testing course or Testing ground

Does the 1205 appear to be a slow race? about 80% of the field have the comments in their latest runs saying "Mid division" or "Midfield, no better" maybe this is a sign that shows lack of class rather than lack of pace and anyway I'd associate a slow pace more primarily with a smaller field.

The horses stepping down in trip to take from the Hadba form would be the ones that were able to track an early pace and challenge early, go clear even and find no extra towards the finish. This would bring in the likes of Race To Dubai, Straight Talk and Cool Wind.

I'm not quite sure if Jebel Ali is more testing than Meydan but from the highlights I've seen it does appear to have an uphill finish and the straight is quite long too.

Maybe there could be a bet?

The most appropriate bet would be Cool Wind, but he has shown on debut that he doesn't handle a slow pace which could work against him whilst the Racing Post doesn't give the data from Jebel Ali to analyse the other two on their ability to handle a slow pace.

I think out of the three Race To Dubai, Straight Talk and Cool Wind any one of them could win it but they really don't match my conditions enough! if I was told to choose one, then I'd side for Cool Wind to dictate out in front under James Doyle but it wouldn't shock me to see the others run good races and could be betting propositions if they reach ridiculous prices before the off.

Too many question marks so it has to be a watching brief sorry.
 
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Put your monkey on Cool Athlete in the second at Dundalk - 4/1 with Boyles - huge rick in my opinion and he probably will win under these conditions:ninja:
 
Good luck Bruce.

I will follow with interest. I'd have personally been a little more modest with your targets, as I honestly think a 5k increase will be some effort.

Major problems with personal challenges like this, is your perspective to bets posted.

Post horse "A" will win, only to find B & C are withdrawn later and one is the pace horse.

Logic tells us there will be swings and roundabouts for and against us, but I find having to bet up to the minute the most effective way.

Good luck.
 
Thanks for the support!

Well, looks like Straight Talk won at a BSP of 18.25 and I would of been kicking myself had I bet in the race because I would have sided for Cool Wind who came a disappointing 6th from stall 2 & Race To Dubai was second last from stall 1 with the last horse being in stall 3- it does look as if high draws are an advantage at Jebel Ali which I shall remember for next time out! because it could have put me on to a winner through process of elimination.

Never mind, as I said earlier I'd rather miss a winner than back a loser!


Put your monkey on Cool Athlete in the second at Dundalk - 4/1 with Boyles - huge rick in my opinion and he probably will win under these conditions:ninja:

It has a solid chance On The Bridle, are you in on the prices yourself?

Personally I have Almadaa's run showing an 9 point improvement for horses in faster conditions next time out with a step up in trip or easy ground. That would bring in the likes of Tsar Paul off a winning mark but did he look a strong stayer last time out with these comments? "Jumped awkwardly, in rear of mid-division, 8th halfway, ridden into 6th 1f out, kept on same pace final furlong".

I do think the race is going to shape up into being a fast run affair with the likes of Fairy Wing & Rocky's Pride and Tsar Paul's best runs have been in strongly run affairs over 7 furlongs so just a bit of caution for the horse which could cause an upset.

Best of luck Bruce.

Whats your views on Akeed Mofeed for the guineas btw?

Massive improver last year, but there are some very well in the know Irish members on here who could give you a more solid assessment. Similar start to his career like Sea The Stars although I get the feeling he might be one for a bit of give in the ground and could be one that might spring a surprise because very much like Sea The Stars approaching the 2000 Guineas no one has been making any noises - no news is good news as they say!
 
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Massive improver last year, but there are some very well in the know Irish members on here

Feck em, the beast will win I just know it.

Seriously though, I do fancy him a bit having had the low down by a few people on Brian Meehan. Thanks for your message.
 
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Marble, Akeed Mofeed is trained by Oxx? Most Improved is Meehans guineas horse who is no doubt the next aeroplane without any wings to come out of Manton.
 
Yeah I know that thanks fella. I had a quick look the other day and Most Improved looked like it had a decent chance. However, I won't be backing him now anytime soon. Some good judges are set against him and his trainer, Bruce included.

After a more thorough examination I think Akeed Mofeed is the left field pick in the race at this current time, of that I'm sweet.:)
 
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Akeed Mofeed has a lot of hype around him. He's never going to be priced up attractively is he?
 
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Tell me about the hype then Slim. All of them do, otherwise you wouldn't have a 3/1 jolly and a second favourite in Top Offer that I hear they think is pretty special to put it mildly.

Furthermore, at 20's I don't know what the feck you're on about:)
 
And what really does SlimChance, OnTheChance, or DavidJohnson think the Dewhurst form is worth then? Or the RP Trophy form? Both races were finished in a heap if you really want to scrutinise bear formlines. Where do I send the cheque btw?

I feel that this year I'd rather have something at a price that got beat in a group race as a 2yo whilst still running creditably than the supposed next Frankel type at around 3/1, but there you go.

I don't beleive Afeed Mofeed is the next Sea The Stars, but look at the improvement Oxx found from that one. Dangerous to understiamte Akeed Moffed. Very hard or possibly silly to catagorise horses like him as 'slow' just because he didn't do the same as Frankel did as a 2yo in destroying everything.

Anyway, over to you Bruce.
 
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They didn't finish in a heap in the RP Trophy for any useful definition of the term.

If the next Frankel was 3/1 I'd be diverting next month's ISA money.

Looking for something at a price that got beat in a Group race at 2 is probably a good approach to the Guineas. Haafhd, Henrythenavigator and Cockney Rebel would all have been very nice prices at this time of the year. Hell, they were nice prices on the day.
 
Watching the Beresford - He was awkward out of the stalls, on and off the bridle during the business part of the race which I feel allowed the winner to steal the race from the front, so the fact he kept closing towards the end showed the horse has a good engine to me. I don't think he lost a great deal in defeat really.

I do like his action as well, I think he'll eat up ground this season. It's just a case of whether he has the class at the top level. 20/1 looks about the right price (don't get me wrong), but it's still a price that he looks well capable of defying if he's trained on as a 3 year old.
 
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Good morning Talking Horses,

Nice debating going on here regarding Akeed Mofeed.

Looking at Lingfield tomorrow it's going to be very hard for punters to strike gold in my humble opinion - with these off season events it's hard to collect any serious information on the runners and the best chance may be looking at one of the handicaps later on in the card.

I've put together a matrix to help me assess the race dynamics better for when judging testing and easy courses in pigeon holing targets. It's pretty simple to do, get your personalized standards together and plot each of the times into excel with the racecourse down the left hand side in the rows and have your distances from smallest to largest in the columns.

Having done that average out each distance then plot a new graph beneath and workout the difference of each racecourse at the distance from the average then you should have yourself a nice plot. What you do after is again, average out each courses difference then paste the values into a new sheet and dependant on your calculations either positive will mean a testing stamina sapping course or a more speed related course.

Anyway, for tomorrows racing at Lingfield we're going to have horses coming from Wolverhampton, Southwell, Kempton and the probably Meydan. What my matrix tells me is this;

Southwell > Lingfield is a 65.85% faster transition.
Wolverhampton > Lingfield is a 59.23% faster transition.
Meydan Turf > Lingfield is a 18.23% faster transition
Kempton > Lingfield is a 17.94% faster transition.
Meydan Tapeta > Lingfield is a 8.40% faster transition.

If we can find horses from Wolverhampton or Southwell who show either Positive Stamina which requires as step down in trip and easier course OR easier ground or Negative Stamina which requires a step up in trip and an easier course or faster Ground.

Don't worry if you're lost at this stage, this information is only available to me as it's part of the formula I'm working on that I mentioned earlier in the thread.

If I can find anything from Wolverhampton that has large potential of points improvement with either negative or positive then it could lead me to my first bet.

Give me an hour or two, I've just woken up and have a coffee on the go.
 
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There are two horses that catch my attention this morning and you can forget the Winter Derby! because Alan McCabe may have a serious shout for a famous double today.

Lets start off with Reve De Nuit who runs in the 16:00 Class 3 Handicap, I am taken by his run at Southwell on the 1st of January this year. The rating was extremely strong and only stumbled across it trying to get a handle of Even Stevens.

There's a hefty 4 points improvement for a stronger run race in the future although the race dynamics suggests Positive Stamina of 3 points which suggests means improvement for a step down in trip or an easier course, faster ground. The closer the figure is to zero the more significant the race was in meeting ideal conditions and with only 3 points improvement I'm not that inclined to look for horses needing a step in trip with the race holding genuine solid milers.

He was giving William Haigh 6lbs for his second with the comments "Tracked leaders on outer, headway on bit and close up 3f out, led 1 1/2f out, ridden and joined 1f out, soon driven, headed and no extra final 100yds" and in doing so recorded a figure that would put him way clear of any contenders in todays race.

So far we have

1a. Slight Positive Stamina - (Step down in trip, faster ground, easier course)
1b. Big positive improvment for a stronger run race.

We know that looking for a horse that's stepping down in trip isn't important in this case but we also know that the transition from Southwell to Lingfield results in a 65% relief in stamina which fills one of the requirements in 1a and the strength of the card with Group class horses tearing up the ground throughout the day could result in faster ground especially with the sun out in Sussex.

For part B, the horse holds an entry in the Lincoln which is habitually a strong run affair which could indicate the handbrake off today in order to enter the field although the fast pace race today is uncertain with many hold up horses which is a massive negative for Reve De Nuit.

I think there is way too many positives for this horse to be a 16/1 shot today and will be having a £15 EW bet.



The other horse to mention was Alan McCabes Fratellino who nearly went close at Lingfield when a 25/1 shot. The run behind Alben Star was particuarly strong, the front two were probably in a different league on the day but due to the weights carried he still run a respectable time back in 8th.

The analysis of the Wolverhampton card that day shows that Alben Star's win wouldn't have seen an improved result for a slower pace and held genuine horses who were suited to a strong run affair. The race dynamics showed a whooping 11 points for Positive Stamina very much like Reve De Nuit in our last assessment but this is almost 4 times more informative.

We know positive stamina indicates a step down in trip, easier course or faster ground and we're going to get that with Fratellino who is stepping down to 5f today and the transition from Wolverhampton to Lingfield as mentioned earlier is around 59.3% less stamina sapping and with the prospective 11 points onto his rating in 8th of 9st 4lbs he's going to be up there with place contentions at the very least.

He has stall 1, a perfect position to bounce out and make all but you have to be wary of that inside rail and I hope Martin Harley can bring him into the middle rather than the far rail. The other main concern is the horses genuine quality to land such a race, he's been beaten fair and square by Oasis Dancer twice which indicates he could still be a poor bet.

I'll have a £10 Double with Fratellino and Reve De Nuit bringing my total spending to £50.
 
Reve Du Nuit is a Southwell horse..the trainer only runs it on the other surfaces when its rating is too high

record at Southwell = 1412
other AW = 46080

his mark is very high at the moment

record when above ohr 90 = 46004820

horse is also better fresh

record when away from track 57 days+ = 11120

record when less than 57 days = 532574460005047551559067434098

you might be right Bruce..but all the form suggests today is not the day
 
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Anyway, for tomorrows racing at Lingfield we're going to have horses coming from Wolverhampton, Southwell, Kempton and the probably Meydan. What my matrix tells me is this;

Southwell > Lingfield is a 65.85% faster transition.
Wolverhampton > Lingfield is a 59.23% faster transition.
Meydan Turf > Lingfield is a 18.23% faster transition
Kempton > Lingfield is a 17.94% faster transition.
Meydan Tapeta > Lingfield is a 8.40% faster transition.

If we can find horses from Wolverhampton or Southwell who show either Positive Stamina which requires as step down in trip and easier course OR easier ground or Negative Stamina which requires a step up in trip and an easier course or faster Ground.

Bruce
I'd seriously question any data that led me to believe that Meydan Tapeta is a fast track?
Sharper than the turf course it may be, less of a test - never.
 
Bruce
I'd seriously question any data that led me to believe that Meydan Tapeta is a fast track?
Sharper than the turf course it may be, less of a test - never.

There is hardly any data for Meydan so you're right, it is questionable.

Fratellino 12 from 16 and Reve De Nuit 14.

Not any great movement.
 
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