Flat Season 2012 - An Attempt To Profit Maximize

  • Thread starter Thread starter Bruce_Savage
  • Start date Start date
Well I did treat myself to a £20 EW bet on Fratellino at 12/1 but I can not count that in the balance sheet of the maximizing profit thread and I shouldn't have bet the horse considering it was 16/1 and lost my value.

2012-03-24
14:56 18992600033 2012-03-24
14:32 GB Ling 24th Mar / 14:55 5f Listed / Fratellino
Back 13.00 20.00 Won 240.00

2012-03-24
14:59 18992460666 2012-03-24
14:29 GB Ling 24th Mar / 14:55 To Be Placed / Fratellino
Back 3.51 20.00 Won 50.12
2012-03-24

14:59 18992466877 2012-03-24
14:29 GB Ling 24th Mar / 14:55 To Be Placed / Bajan Tryst
Back 6.32 10.00 Won 53.15
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The bank does rely on Reve De Nuit though, I do have a £2,200 double if the horse manages to land the 16:40 and a £15 ew bet at 16/1.

This morning, if I could have put a confidence level on the potential running of my bets I would have had Reve De Nuit better at 80% so I am really hopeful of this horse coming in I really am.

Thanks for comments anyway.
 
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trudij said:
and there was me being chuffed that Id got the tricast of the mares final at Newbury... :)

well done Bruce - hope you can keep it up :D
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Trudij, TRICAST £413.74 is not to be snuffed at!

That's a fantastic piece of work on your behalf.

Congratulations.

Wouldn't be surprised if this Reve De Nuit goes off near the 8-1 mark, 17-2 with most Bookmakers but 10/1 on the exchanges and that's where I done the double @ SP - still got a lot to learn about betting personally.
 
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Well done with the place Bruce.

I thought Harley would have tried to make it a stamina test, rather than tracking the pace.

Forgotten Hero was the most impressive performance for me. Although an odds on shot, he pulled from the front, yet was still able to kick on inside the straight.

Eased when clear, the time reads well.
 
I'd want to be backing winners at above Betfair SP if I wanted to win £30k in a flat season and having more than scores on too.
 
You'd want to be having very few bets and very big bets to win 30k. Maximising profits is all about having as much on as possible when you have a big advantage over the market. If I have one of these bets this summer it will be enough to ensure I'm ahead. Pricking around on cards like the opening flat meeting st the Curragh will send you potless very quickly.
 
SlimChance said:
How big is your reserve bank Bruce?
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There are no reserves Slim Chance although if called upon I could easily reinvest another £500 to start over again but I don't plan on doing that and the thought hasn't even crossed my mind.

Easy to say you need to start betting big to reach that glorious goal, I don't think anyone thought any different but this is a challenge I've personally set myself and initially put it in the General chat thread to not cause any attention or nuisance threads that can spiral out of control.

I know that there are big holes in my approach at times and if someone wishes to help me think about reinventing my betting strategy I'd be more than appreciative.

If that double had come in today I could have upped my stakes quite easily and that's the plan, just need to start getting there slowly but surely, I have the right approach and appreciate any support from members.
 
Well done Bruce. And they want people like you in padded cells would you believe.:)
 
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Good morning Talking Horses,

Nice cup of vanilla & honey fruit tea here ready to delve through the card at The Curragh!

Now there is a horse I may have stumbled across but before I go any further if I had to put a confidence interval on how strong my reading on all the runners in the race it would be at about 15-20%.

Whilst trying to get a handle on some of the runners in the sprint race I stumbled across a race in June at The Curragh, the 26th to be precise. The race that stands out like a sore thumb was that won by Pirateer of Aidan O’Brien (I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the horse Misesque is talking about too) who on original inspection runs around a Group 2 performance but what catches my eye is the potential improvement for a stronger run race which would see a 7pt improvement making him a Group 1 contender in the future.
The ground that day was perfectly good and race dynamics indicated Positive Speed to the tune of 7pts, this predicts that the extra points could be earnt for either a step up in trip, testing course OR testing Ground.

The horse I’m interested in is the mare Ezalli who was back in 2nd place giving 7lbs to the winner; she was running for the 1st time after a long absence earning the comments “Tracked leaders, 5th entering straight, ridden to go 2nd 1f out, no impression on winner final furlong”.

Today’s race is over 8f, even though she has won over 10f we can’t tick the box for stepping up in trip but we can assume that the ground today is going to be yielding and as for the course this aspect is void because she’s running at The Curragh again.

What I’m interested in is the fact she’s very lightly raced, being a 5yo mare by Cape Cross there must be a huge interest in becoming a broodmare which will eventually happen but they’ve decided to keep her in training with the obvious assumption there is much more to prove on the racecourse yet.
There are worries about her soundness though but we know that from a long break such as today she can be tuned to run a good race, with the pace today looking quite strong and knowing she can get the 10f here on soft ground it would be perfect for her if they collapsed in front where she’d undoubtedly have a stayers chance.

I really don’t know if I have the bottle to go in on her but everything is telling me the positives are there for her to at least be able to place with lucrative odds. The niggling doubts in the back of my mind are the weight she has to give away to the big yards contenders especially the three year olds Twirl, Princess Sinead & of course Aaraas who is there to boost the running of Nephrite which is the race that gave me so much confidence in the horse to go in large Ante Post and from my visit to Ireland.

I think if she starts to touch 25/1 I will play.

Marble said:
Well done Bruce. And they want people like you in padded cells would you believe.:)
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Not quite sure how I ever earnt the reputation as some sort of psychopath?
 
Non Runner, was probably a poor decision to go looking for a bet anyway.

Good luck if you're playing today, I'm out and will only use the card for future references.
 
Bruce_Savage said:
Good morning Talking Horses,

Nice cup of vanilla & honey fruit tea here ready to delve through the card at The Curragh!

Now there is a horse I may have stumbled across but before I go any further if I had to put a confidence interval on how strong my reading on all the runners in the race it would be at about 15-20%.

Whilst trying to get a handle on some of the runners in the sprint race I stumbled across a race in June at The Curragh, the 26th to be precise. The race that stands out like a sore thumb was that won by Pirateer of Aidan O’Brien (I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the horse Misesque is talking about too) who on original inspection runs around a Group 2 performance but what catches my eye is the potential improvement for a stronger run race which would see a 7pt improvement making him a Group 1 contender in the future.
The ground that day was perfectly good and race dynamics indicated Positive Speed to the tune of 7pts, this predicts that the extra points could be earnt for either a step up in trip, testing course OR testing Ground.

The horse I’m interested in is the mare Ezalli who was back in 2nd place giving 7lbs to the winner; she was running for the 1st time after a long absence earning the comments “Tracked leaders, 5th entering straight, ridden to go 2nd 1f out, no impression on winner final furlong”.

Today’s race is over 8f, even though she has won over 10f we can’t tick the box for stepping up in trip but we can assume that the ground today is going to be yielding and as for the course this aspect is void because she’s running at The Curragh again.

What I’m interested in is the fact she’s very lightly raced, being a 5yo mare by Cape Cross there must be a huge interest in becoming a broodmare which will eventually happen but they’ve decided to keep her in training with the obvious assumption there is much more to prove on the racecourse yet.
There are worries about her soundness though but we know that from a long break such as today she can be tuned to run a good race, with the pace today looking quite strong and knowing she can get the 10f here on soft ground it would be perfect for her if they collapsed in front where she’d undoubtedly have a stayers chance.

I really don’t know if I have the bottle to go in on her but everything is telling me the positives are there for her to at least be able to place with lucrative odds. The niggling doubts in the back of my mind are the weight she has to give away to the big yards contenders especially the three year olds Twirl, Princess Sinead & of course Aaraas who is there to boost the running of Nephrite which is the race that gave me so much confidence in the horse to go in large Ante Post and from my visit to Ireland.

I think if she starts to touch 25/1 I will play.



Not quite sure how I ever earnt the reputation as some sort of psychopath?
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You can now sit back and relax Ezali is a NR:)
 
25th March – The Curragh (Heavy)

DAWN APPROACH – (Class: +3) (Positive Speed: +9) (Slower pace: +2)
REDOUTABLE – (Class: -5) (Negative Speed: +14) (Slower pace: +4)
CROISULTAN – (Class: +3) (Positive Stamina: +5) (Faster pace: +1)
CHRYSANTHEMUM – (Class: -4) (N/A) (Faster pace: +4)
COOLNAGREE – (Class: +10) (N/A) (Faster pace: +3)
SHARESTAN – (Class: +3) (N/A) (Slower pace: +3)
AMIRA’S PRINCE – (Class: -1) (Negative Speed: +1) (Slower pace: +2)
 
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Bruce_Savage said:
25th March – The Curragh (Heavy)

DAWN APPROACH – (Class: +3) (Positive Speed: +9) (Slower pace: +2)
REDOUTABLE – (Class: -5) (Negative Speed: +14) (Slower pace: +4)
CROISULTAN – (Class: +3) (Positive Stamina: +5) (Faster pace: +1)
CHRYSANTHEMUM – (Class: -4) (N/A) (Faster pace: +4)
COOLNAGREE – (Class: +10) (N/A) (Faster pace: +3)
SHARESTAN – (Class: +3) (N/A) (Slower pace: +3)
AMIRA’S PRINCE – (Class: -1) (Negative Speed: +1) (Slower pace: +2)
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Erm.... What?
 
On The Bridle said:
I don't think the ground was heavy at the Curragh Bruce.
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What was the wind like OTB?

One of the strongest run races on the card won by a solid Group performer was still over 6 seconds above standard and that was a sprint.

Unless the distances were not as advertised!
 
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