Flat Season 2012 - An Attempt To Profit Maximize

[Bruce_Savage]

There was a strong headwind.

Thanks.

You could be worth your weight in gold.

 

[SlimChance]

Correction:

Kevin Blake (@kevinblake2011)
25/03/2012 13:11
Advice to anyone doing time analysis at the Curragh today,
hand time the races and give allowance for a slight headwind. #horseracing


Kevin Blake writes the Spotlights in the Racing Post for Irish meetings. He used to work for Timeform and also did a stint with Jeremy Gask. He's a seriously good judge.



.

 

[SteveM]

Wait until the season starts to unfold things will make more sense, this is just for information purposes.

...you say for information purposes. What information is this giving exactly? What does Negative Speed +14 mean? Why is CHRYSANTHEMUM Class: -4 and COOLNAGREE Class: +10 and what does this mean?

 

[Bruce_Savage]

SPRING MILE

Looking at the race I think Kyllachy Star could be the horse to track, run a blinder when fresh in the Irish Lincolnshire last year but bounced a week later and all things well he should run a fine race. The two horses that should be watched are Kay Gee Bee and Kiwi Bay who are both in need of fast ground, I would be tempted to bet either of them but they really do need the faster surface. From an unexposed point of view we have Mont Ras who could quite easily land this race for David O’Meara if the signs in the market are positive.

The horse I’m going for though is SHAMDARLEY for Michael Dods & ridden by Phillip Makin.

When assessing his credentials I was taken by his run at Doncaster on the 14th of May last year over the mile when recording a rating of (87) which is decent enough for a 3 year old that time of year. He showed good class (+5) that day but more importantly he could theoretically improve 3.32s for a stronger pace in the future bringing him up to a mark of (97).

The race dynamics that day indicated positive speed, this assumes more improvement can be gained from either a step up in trip, testing ground or testing course. The horse eventually finished the season winning over 10f at York after finishing 5th in the Silver Cambridgeshire so I think he met those conditions and hopefully today will be run at a sound pace where it could be a case of needing a little further in your tank to see out the trip.

 

[Bruce_Savage]

CAMMIDGE TROPHY

Not the most exciting of line ups for this year’s renewal although we have a few old heads returning looking to find some of their former glory but the one that does catch the eye was last year’s rapid improver Sirius Prospect who looks to hold a very solid chance with a winter on his back but I do believe the prospect of a slow pace over 6f at this level could be untoward and if he was to bomb out here and a drop in the weights might see him running in the Victoria Cup over 7f at Ascot a month later where everything would be to suit especially with £52k+ on offer.

The other horse to mention is High Standing who showed some signs of revival at Redcar last time out in a solid time and may actually be better for the winter in a new yard, tried with headgear for the first time he deserves some respect.

I’ve chosen to head for BANNOCK out of the Mark Johnston yard who looks ever such a tough sort with plenty of racing as a Juvenile. There is no doubt he has plenty of ability, a recent spin on the All Weather at Lingfield was nothing but a sharpener as he doesn’t seem to run at his maximum when going around a bend.

With the straight 6f that holds a field of horses who are stylish in their approach and like to deliver late, there is every chance that Bannock could get an easy lead out in front where his weight of 8-3 would be advantageous in a battle given his already lovely demeanour, ability to finish off a race strongly and the will to win, he has to be the stand out bet in the race.

 

[Bruce_Savage]

THE LINCOLN

This wouldn’t be my favourite race in the world but seeing as we’ve been deprived of proper racing for months it’s only right you get involved if you find the right horse at the right price. There are many dangers in the race, Start Right a prolific late challenger who catches the eye consistently but could do with today’s headgear and holds such a solid chance. There’s also Eton Forever to consider, wide margin winner of the Spring Mile last year but never really held his fitness and missed some big summer pots whilst many of the runners are coming back here for their 2nd, 3rd tries.

The horse that’s captured my imagination is SHAVANSKY for Rod Millman.

Looking back to the 8th of July when racing at Chepstow, Shavansky went off a well backed 9-2 relishing in the strong pace set by Pat’s Legacy (Headgear 1st time) and travelled through the race powerfully from the rear to go away at the finish. James Millman was reluctant to use the whip and only done so inside the final furlong at the anticipation of Belgian Bill making a rallying run – to his surprise Shavansky destroyed them in a good time.

He’s only raced once at Dundalk in the November Handicap coming 9th out of 22 but it’s a fair old trip from Devon for the new Syndicate Owners (as of 11th October) but there’s no doubt he’s built for these sort of races and anything is possible as he’s shown in the past he will give you a run for your money. There is some doubt regarding his credentials over the 8f, will the race happen too soon for him? Its a little concern but what isn’t when you fancy a 40-1 shot?

Listen, I’m not expecting him to win 3 or 4 lengths but I think the profile & ability on the clock with these conditions could play into his strengths and is worth taking a chance at the price.

 

[Bruce_Savage]

MEYDAN

I mentioned earlier that it becomes very hard to get a real grasp of how good these global raiders are but what I do like about Meydan is the Tapeta track, I do believe it’s one if not the greatest racing surface in the world and promotes a great opportunity for form all over the global to be solidly transferred.

There are two horses at Meydan today who I think will take some stopping, the first is WESTERN ARISTOCRAT for Jeremy Noseda who has made rapid progress as a 3 year old developing into a genuine Group 1 performer with plenty of racing speed.

Then on to another race run on the Tapeta the last race & one of the biggest, richest and most hotly contested races in the Flat calendar. There has been some question over the readiness of Aidan O’Brien’s runners after some foiled gambles accompanied with his horses carrying a lot of condition and a general poor record in March but SO YOU THINK doesn’t know this.

He is undoubtedly one of the best horse in training in the world at the present and undeservedly lost some reputation in 2011 despite running his heart out on a consistent basis. The horse has everything you’d want and more in a thoroughbred & there’s somewhat of a purpose this year to show the world who he is and what he can do – the stage is no greater, no bigger than this and he will be fighting out that finish & quite possibly coming a 4-5 lengths clear if he finds some of his best form.

 

[Bruce_Savage]

First bet for the profit maximising thread since Saturday last week, now after squandered cash yesterday from other savings I’m relying on this bank to balance the situation.

245 DONCASTER

I’ve gone throw this race in quite some depth unintentionally although it’s been quite an enjoyable experience, I’ll start off with Sonning Rose who I think has come down to a realistic mark so she could be dangerous but I’m not entirely sure she wants’ a race like this enough.
The next is Count Bertoni for David O’Meara, ran well over 7f here last year from a wide draw & battled on well to the death but emptied the final 100 yards and this honest horse will probably find a race this year although I’m not sure this is it.

We arrive at Little Black Book, trainer Gerard Butler got off the mark yesterday with a nice filly winning the Maiden at 14-1 and I’m sure this horse is going to have his supporters especially looking around the Internet Forums at the minute quite a few are latching on to the horse. There’s no doubt the horse is talented, game if anything, but he looks a bit too big and awkward to be suited to this sort of race and saw out 10f around Windsor (Sig 0.05) with the race dynamics of the race indicating a step down in trip although this could be too sharp.

Ollie Pears has a shortie in the name of Sound Amigo but in my notes I’ve got the Doncaster course being a bit too lively for him. Then coming to Bawaardi, I’ve noted him as a danger being dropped down in class significantly which should see a rise in improvement. Ex-Godolphin horse Zacynthus would be interesting although again I’ve noted he needs the ground extremely fast and at least 1m+.

Finally, I arrive at my selection in SILVERY MOON for the Tim Easterby yard ridden by David Allan.

This son of Verglas has had just the 9 races managing to finish in the frame 5 times including 2 wins coming at Redcar & Ayr. Looking through at his Redcar win I’ve rated him to around (88) on good ground, ok decent enough for this sort of horses profile but I wanted a little more information so I’ve rated up his Ayr win which was also (88) to a positive stamina profile of (5pts) which indicates a horse could ascertain those by stepping down in trip, easier course or faster ground.

Well, Redcar is significantly related to Doncaster although it’s a much faster surface by about 1.84s at each conceivable distance although we’re looking at the information from his last run at Ayr, now Ayr is not related to Doncaster but the change in tracks will fill the requirements of a faster course given that Ayr is 1.76s slower than Doncaster at every conceivable distance.

On yesterdays readings he’s going to fill the requirements for meeting fast ground so we can safely put him up to (93) which is the bare minimum of his improvement, the ground also does look on the soft side so maybe there is some depth and cushion that might suit horses who like the feeling of a bit of cut in the ground and that should also play into his strengths. The horse has clearly been taken care of and not rushed through the Handicap, when you look at his last run when winning at the Ayr 3 day Festival he hit the front in style galloping away with ears pricked like a big baby!

He travels so well in his races which will benefit him today, I believe the 7f is right up his street and he should really be going close. The Handicapper has severely underrated his potential in my opinion when rating him 83; he really could go through this season and have the pick of some very decent handicaps especially around the Northern circuit.

My only main worry is whether he can run fresh or not, if today isn’t his day and we squander our money then I can wholeheartedly say you will be earning it back at some stage during the Flat months on Silvery Moon.

£25 EW @ 14/1

BANK £570

 

[EC1]

its well drawn Bruce..but can't help thinking would prefer slower ground..when it won at Redcar it was officially Good but the times suggest it was G/S and was same when won at Ayr..ground was slightly quick side of Good yesterday..maybe they have watered overnight

good luck..will keep an eye on this one through the season

 

[rorydelargy]

I’ve rated up his Ayr win which was also (88) to a positive stamina profile of (5pts) which indicates a horse could ascertain those by stepping down in trip, easier course or faster ground.

Just to follow up on Steve M's question (which we'd all love an answer to), can you explain what the above sentence means to you. It doesn't make any sense to me.

 

[Grey]

It doesn't make any sense to him either.

 

[Bruce_Savage]

Just to follow up on Steve M's question (which we'd all love an answer to), can you explain what the above sentence means to you. It doesn't make any sense to me.

I've clearly stated what this means Rory.

indicates a horse could ascertain those by stepping down in trip, easier course or faster ground.

Not sure how I can explain further?

 

[rorydelargy]

I've clearly stated what this means Rory.



Not sure how I can explain further?

Let's take this slowly, Bruce.

What you've written is gibberish. You may have meant to write something sensible, but it hasn't worked. I'd like you to have another try, if possible. I'll break it down:

1. What's a positive stamina profile?

2. Which word have you confused with "ascertain"?

3. What are the "those" to which you refer?

Once I've worked out what this sentence is meant to say, I'll move on to others, but I don't want to do too much too soon.

 

[SlimChance]

Let's take this slowly, Bruce.

Once I've worked out what this sentence is meant to say, I'll move on to others, but I don't want to do too much too soon.

:lol:

 

[Simon]

Bruce seems to be in the habit of using incorrect words in strange places in order to try and sound intellectual.

 

[Bruce_Savage]

In truth Rory you have given me nothing but grief on here and I do not wish to become part of the circus act you have going with Slim Chance.

as·cer·tain/ˌasərˈtān/
Verb:
Find (something) out for certain; make sure of: "ascertain the cause of the accident".

These point's were the cause of positive stamina, as an investigator it's my role to look at the horses future engagements to find out whether he can gain these points.

Nothing more to add here and those causing deliberate derailments of a thread shall be reported.

 

[rorydelargy]

Nothing more to add here and those causing deliberate derailments of a thread shall be reported.

Deliberate derailment by asking for clarification? **** off Bruce.

 

[rorydelargy]

These point's were the cause of positive stamina, as an investigator it's my role to look at the horses future engagements to find out whether he can gain these points.

I must continue my quest for enlightenment.

1. What point's (sic) are you referring to?

2. Once you've explained "positive stamina" to me, can you explain how this concept can be "caused" by the answer to the question above.

Many thanks for your consideration on these matters, which I'm sure you'll agree are crucial to the enjoyment of this thread.

 

[rorydelargy]

**** off Bruce.

No offence intended of course - I merely used the word **** as a corollary in this febrile debate, knowing that the pejorative backdraft would ascertain a certain joie de vivre in your general vicinity. I quite fancied Carrickmines in the veterans chase at Ascot but after taking an assessment of ennui [-8] from his best rating (I don't feel the need to bring this into my ratings for chasers under the age of 9, but there is no doubt that horses, as they age, are much more prone to letting such characteristics affect their performances, especially in the languid days of early summer), I couldn't find any recompense in his current market price, notwithstanding the inevitable fluctuations. I'm not entirely sure purple suits him either.

 

[Colin Phillips]

 

[Bruce_Savage]

The horse lost and I've done a little bit of cash again, isn't that what you really want?

You have won but I'll be back in the future to try and put amends to some shocking selections of late.

It is actually quite a low, unsatisfactory and demoralizing feeling to put the effort in to only see your money squandered and to have to come back to a barrage of petty arguments.

I highlight this man EC1, he came in the thread offered his opinions on my horse and what he thought could happen wished me good luck and went off to enjoy his day.

If only that sort of practice was adopted by a few on here.

 

[Bruce_Savage]

Whilst trying to get a handle on some of the runners in the sprint race I stumbled across a race in June at The Curragh, the 26th to be precise. The race that stands out like a sore thumb was that won by Pirateer of Aidan O’Brien (I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the horse Misesque is talking about too) who on original inspection runs around a Group 2 performance but what catches my eye is the potential improvement for a stronger run race which would see a 7pt improvement making him a Group 1 contender in the future.

Penitent was trapped on the rail beaten about 1.75l behind Pirateer and with The Curragh showing a significant relationship with Doncaster at each conceivable distance I couldn't help but get on Penitent today at 8.8 especially given his record at Doncaster.

There was good money for him before the off and won like a good thing, shame I didn't put him up!, even got 2.02 for the place.

GB / Donc 1st Apr / 15:55 1m Listed Penitent Back 19134939466 01-Apr-12
15:28 C 8.6 50.00 8.6 380.00

Penitent 2.02 £0.03 £0.03
Ref: 19134934111 Bet matched:15:34 01-Apr-12
2.02 £49.97 £50.97

Yet again! I'm onto a large double with Mujaadel in the last race! I thought the horse loves fast ground, has good record at a significantly related track Catterick and with a high draw he could make the frame.

Horse Racing Mujaadel, Penitent
Back 30490096 01-Apr-12
10:13 2 SP - 30.0 Matched

 

[rorydelargy]

The horse lost and I've done a little bit of cash again, isn't that what you really want?

Heaven forfend.

I am obdurate in my belief that your acumen will help you discover a plethora of double-digit winners in insoluble handicaps this turf campaign, and while the denouement thus far has been less than auspicious, you have set your stall out as a veritable bellwether of logistical analysis. I believe I can speak for us all when I say that the idiosyncratic nature of your quixotic, nay herculean task, is unparagoned.

I am singularly magnanimous (even though I do say so myself) in my praise for your cogitative process, and can state with some degree of equanimity that you have not been parsimonious in your meanderings to such an end, at least insofar as such musings have been presented to the forum. One would have to be positively saxicolous to have failed to apprehend the onerous nature of your sworn duty, and as such it would be mean-spirited of us not to wish wholeheartedly for a proficuous and remunerative aspect to this adventure, both for yourself, and those you seek so enthusiastically to proselytise. It can only add to the general conviviality of our brotherhood to see the ultimate success of such a perspicacious venture.

While there can be no denying the coruscant possibilities endemic within the framework of a project such as the one you have so ebulliently embarked upon, it is becoming increasingly palpable that a certain degree of circumlocution in your responses is in danger of undoing your great work in much the same way that that magnificent edifice at Babel was left undone by confounded language. A cessation of sesquipedalian posturing, and a desire to embrace a more inclusive vocabulary will surely see you flourish as narrator of your own opus - you'll certainly look less of a ****.




[This work brought to you courtesy of: http://www.bigwords.com/bigwords/]

 

[Bruce_Savage]

Very good, hope that makes you feel a lot better.

 

[rorydelargy]

It's not for my own glorification that I write, Bruce, but for the enrichment of the masses. I look forward to the revelation of more winners from your good self, although I find I'm unable to get on after the races are over, despite frequenting the same bookmaker as Dorothy Paget. It's one rule for wealthy fruitcakes and another for the working man, if you ask me.

Thankfully I'm quids in for buying ennui on the spreads at Ascot. The entire track was temporarily bathed in melancholy during the aforementioned veterans chase, which saw a maximum make-up. The downside is that my account at mentalspreads.co.uk has been closed.