Flat Stayers 2011

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davidjohnson

At the Start
Joined
Jun 29, 2007
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I guess this could have been called the Road To Cadran, however I changed ir in the interests of forum harmony. And to be honest, 'Pathway to the Ascot Gold Cup' would be nore appropriate.

The Staying division last year was weak. The top horses weren't seen enough and meant that a substandard bunch took it in turns to beat each other. There's definitely room for something to emerge, it won't be Manifest as Henry Cecil announced he's out for the season. Paul Nicholls continues to shirk the challenge and refuses to consider the race for Big Bucks. There's no knocking Rite of Passage, but this really could be the year of Fame And Glory.

Much malinged for having the misfortune to be foaled the same year as Sea The Stars, he's a proper Group 1 horse on his day, as he showed in the Coronation Cup. Due to appear in the Vintage Crop Stakes, a race that Yeats used regularly as his prep, it looks like connections are going down the syating route with him. plenty of 6's available. He'll be fav on the day.
 
The "maligned" horse is seemingly best suited by going for a "weak" division

But the bet makes a lot of sense. Well spotted
 
davidjohnson said:
The Staying division last year was weak.
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I agree, but I thought the sprinters were worse if anything - and yet these animals don't seem as maligned - especially by you and your mates in Halifax. During Makfi's essay in their admittedly fine Annual they quoted the old adage that "you should rate horses on races, not races on horses"

And then not much more than a dozen pages later we find Markab on 125.

And Lady of the Desert was a better 3yo filly than Snow Fairy? Pull the other one.
 
Euronymous said:
And Lady of the Desert was a better 3yo filly than Snow Fairy? Pull the other one.
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Snow Fairy was certainly more successful in terms of races and prize-money won but it's not hard to see how, on ratings, Lady Of The Desert's Diadem win could be assessed superior to any of Snow Fairy's performances. Timeform aren't alone on this. The Racing Post has Lady Of The Desert 1lb superior and Computer Racing Form has the gap at 19lbs, no less, although they don't have figures for Snow Fairy's runs abroad last backend.
 
The Diadem is a farce of a race.

A great example of the downfall of TF's ratings approach of race standardisation...

There should be a half a stone or so between them. Euro spot on.
 
Hamm said:
There should be a half a stone or so between them. Euro spot on.
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You are arguing, presumably, that Snow Fairy should be rated about 7lbs superior to Lady Of The Desert. I would be interested to hear your reasoning.
 
Lady of the Desert was only beaten just over a length in the Pouliches, she wasn't a patent non-stayer. Are we really supposed to believe she was upwards of ten pounds better over 6f? She was beaten by a jumped up handicapper in the Sprint Cup and beat a French horse in the Diadem whose only previous run over the trip was as a 2yo (on heavy)
 
chroniclandlord said:
I hope Fame goes for the Gold Cup, I think that he would be ideal for it, but I fear that they may still keep him to middle distances.
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I fear you may be right. I’d also like to see Fame And Glory go for the Gold Cup. He has a decent enough pedigree for stamina. However, his highest rated performance is at 10 furlongs and his new owner may be looking for middle distance glory. I’d be hopeful but far from confident that they would go the Gold Cup route. His stud value would be great if he won a middle-distance Group 1 this season, having won Group 1s at two, three and four.

O’ Brien has stated that there are three races they are looking at next: the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh over 10 furlongs, the Coronation Cup (at Epsom) over a mile and a half, and the Saval Beg (at Leopardstown) over a mile and three-quarters. “Depending on which one he goes for it will dictate what his plans are for the year”... not giving much away,as usual.
 
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I think the only races he could win that would increase his stud value would be the King George and the Arc. Likelihood is that he'd come up short in both.
 
His new majority owner has probably paid for the chance to find out though.
 
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davidjohnson said:
I think the only races he could win that would increase his stud value would be the King George and the Arc. Likelihood is that he'd come up short in both.
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By selling the share in him they have already put a line through him as a stallion as such. I'd imagine the new part owners want to give themselves the best opportunity to win as much prize money as possible. Unsurprisingly APOB's comments tell us nothing.



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At least this time he won. Last year he was turned over at 2/5 on his seasonal debut in a race in which his jockey's lack of effort was scandalous.
 
I'm not sure a reason was given. Dermot Weld reported he was not happy with the horse and that he was not 100% after a piece of work at the Curragh in preperation for the Irish Leger. He will start this season in the Saval Beg Stakes. I wonder would APOB want to duck taking him on this early with FAG?




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...due to run on Thursday in what looks like being a small field in the Henry II. In terms of rating he should win, but I’m not excited by him. Big price for the Gold Cup and no doubt should be.
 
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