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EC1

EC1

On a break
Joined
May 7, 2007
Messages
17,679
Location
late 1960's early 70's
This idea is not new..i've run this on forums years ago..its a good way of us working together to try and find one or two races per week that we all give our view of the chance each horse has in a race..its nothing serious..it might turn out to be very lucrative..it might be we find out we haven't got a clue what we doing:D..it don't matter. Lets see what happens

Each week..i will nominate a race for us to look at..probably at the weekend..or if someone prefers a different race then just nominate. We could also do it for Cheltenham races to come for those that like ante post.


All you need to do is look at the race..decide how many times each horse would win the race if it were run 100 times. and post each horse with the %. Try not to look at the forecast..this may influence you..don't be worried that you may be out of step with others...the whole idea is we combine everyone's figures and create our own Talking Horses book for that race..see if we can locate value.

The first race can be tomorrow's LANZAROTE HURDLE at Kempton.

So ,,just post your %'s..lets see what happens
 
cheers guys..just to add..everyone has until lets say midday tomorrow to throw in their figures..that gives plenty of time..there is no rush

i might do updates of average figures every now and then to see how our book progresses throughout the morning..see what the early prices look like compared to our ongoing book
 
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these are the runners..save you typing the names just copy and paste

BROTHER TEDD
GEVREY CHAMBERTIN
UN ACE
DELL'ARCA
BIVOUAC
DEEP TROUBLE
UNOWHATIMEANHARRY
IBIS DU RHE U
YALA ENKI
WESTREN WARRIOR
LITTLE BOY BORU
 
EC1 said:
these are the runners..save you typing the names just copy and paste

BROTHER TEDD
GEVREY CHAMBERTIN
UN ACE
DELL'ARCA
BIVOUAC
DEEP TROUBLE
UNOWHATIMEANHARRY
IBIS DU RHE U
YALA ENKI
WESTREN WARRIOR
LITTLE BOY BORU
Click to expand...


UNOWHATIMEANHARRY is non runner - bad scope.
GEVREY goes to Chepston - unless its called off.
 
Digger said:
UNOWHATIMEANHARRY is non runner - bad scope.
GEVREY goes to Chepston - unless its called off.
Click to expand...

cheers Digger..just heard it on whradio..i'll leave Gevrey in just in case..

if any horse doesn't run after you done figures..don't worry about it..we can just split the % amongst rest of field

runners left in at the moment are

BROTHER TEDD
GEVREY CHAMBERTIN
UN ACE
DELL'ARCA
BIVOUAC
DEEP TROUBLE
IBIS DU RHE U
YALA ENKI
WESTREN WARRIOR
LITTLE BOY BORU
 
This is going to be an interesting discipline. I tend to put a line through horses that I don't think can win rather than extrapolate to 100 runnings and, effectively, create my own book but I'll give it a go.
 
Okay, I'll go first. Checked it against the market and I have some marked differences.

Brother Tedd12.50%
Un Ace16.66%
Dell Arca7.14%
Bivouac40.00%
Deep Trouble4.00%
Ibis du Rheu12.50%
Yala Enki20.00%
Westren Warrior50.00%
Little Boy Boru2.00%

<colgroup><col span="3"></colgroup><tbody>
</tbody>

Overround 120.5% in case you're adjusting to 100%.
 
18 brother tedd
9 gevrey chambertin
6 un ace
4 dell'arca
22 bivouac
8 deep trouble
11 ibis du rheu
8 yala enki
7 westren warrior
7 little boy boru
 
Maruco said:
Okay, I'll go first. Checked it against the market and I have some marked differences.

Brother Tedd12.50%
Un Ace16.66%
Dell Arca7.14%
Bivouac40.00%
Deep Trouble4.00%
Ibis du Rheu12.50%
Yala Enki20.00%
Westren Warrior50.00%
Little Boy Boru2.00%

<tbody>
</tbody>

Overround 120.5% in case you're adjusting to 100%.
Click to expand...

thats very brave going first,,respect:cool:

but all your % should add up to 100:)...like Tiny Clanger's do...do you want me to reduce them or do you want to alter them to add up to 100?..not sure if you have a typo or not..so might let you re post

you don't need to worry about overrounds..just a 100% total is best
 
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Yep. shear greed. :D

I build a tissue to the bookmakers equivalent. There was an error in my formulas and I've also adjusted to 100%. (100.1% actually because of rounding!)

Brother Tedd7.6%
Un Ace10.1%
Dell Arca4.3%
Bivouac24.3%
Deep Trouble2.4%
Ibis du Rheu7.6%
Yala Enki12.2%
Westren Warrior30.4%
Little Boy Boru1.2%

<tbody>
</tbody>
 
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cheers Maruco..this is going to be very interesting just looking at the two tissues already posted..and compared to what i've got halfway done

its not easy is it?

with all the approaches on here we have...we ought to be able to build a very interesting book.
 
just to add..to everyone...whatever you come up with..don't worry about comparing it to anything posted..we will be taking an average and every post is important as each one will add in different ways of looking at a race..a proper melting pot of angles and views
 
5 brother tedd
3 gevrey chambertin
7 un ace
5 dell'arca
16 bivouac
4 deep trouble
22 ibis du rheu
15 yala enki
22 westren warrior
1 little boy boru
 
12 brother tedd
4 un ace
8 dell'arca
12 bivouac
2 deep trouble
16 ibis du rheu
18 yala enki
25 westren warrior
3 little boy boru
 
sorry to be a pain..but gevrey chambertin isn't in some of the lists and is in others..we know he will run at Chepstow if its on..but if he don't and he runs here we will then with him being in your lists..i can then remove him easily..will be easier than if he does run and half of you haven't included him..easier to remove than try and allow for it later

could Maruco and Benny just add him to the posts already up

just to ask as well..if you can all put the figure before the name..it makes it easier to paste to spreadsheet..cheers

so..for futher lists please could everyone include Gevrey chambertin

thanks
 
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