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the winner got a 5/6 length lead handed to it..so on another day when it doesn't..our value pick wins..on top of that the general shape of our market looked realistic..if it was a sh1te effort we would have been all over the place.

you have to start thinking a long game DG..you are mistaking one result with something that needs to be judged over a series of bets

Its a bit like someone saying to you..i'm going to give you 10 tips over the next month....he gives you the first 5 and they all get beat..so you don't bother backing the others..the next 5 all win

its an interesting test of mindset ...many punters for instance will try new ideas/methods/systems/.....if new method fails after a few goes..it gets discarded....the only method that people stick with is the where success comes immediately..its just a timing thing....so all those ideas thrown in bin might have been really good if persevered with..and those that just happened to give immediate success..then failed ...were the ones that should have been in the bin probably

there is no such thing as..this will give 100% success each time..its not possible
 
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talking about mindset and how people can think sometimes

years ago..i worked with a guy who wasn't a racing fan..but someone at dog track who he knew started giving him tips..first 4 won..5th one lost..so he packed in listening to him

thats a true story..and shows you expectation level of a non punter
 
EC1 said:
talking about mindset and how people can think sometimes

years ago..i worked with a guy who wasn't a racing fan..but someone at dog track who he knew started giving him tips..first 4 won..5th one lost..so he packed in listening to him

thats a true story..and shows you expectation level of a non punter
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Been there... done that...

In my first job, word got round that I was into horses. Colleagues started asking me for tips. The first three or four all won at prices up to 14/1 and I was God.

The next two were beaten out of sight and I was a tit.

Only one guy stuck with me through thick and thin and we did okay in the long term.
 
How do people approach betting ante post , I mean you can't apply your version of value if you don't know the runners.

Or can you ?
 
Diamond Geezer said:
How do people approach betting ante post , I mean you can't apply your version of value if you don't know the runners.

Or can you ?
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It's a lot harder. Basically you have to overlay the horse's chance in the race and the chance it runs (and also the chance the opposition runs). There is loads of guesswork but if you have a better idea of the running plans than the market you can clean up. See the Slim Chance forum double on UDS and Vautour last year.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
How do people approach betting ante post , I mean you can't apply your version of value if you don't know the runners.

Or can you ?
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Ante post racing are some of the most inefficiently priced markets out there. I put a horse up on the 'will win thread' three days ago who's probability of winning the race has increased from 4.76% to 12.5% since then. It will increase further before the tapes go up. If you can spot these opportunities and 'buy low' every time than the results will take care of themselves.
 
I seldom bet ante-post, certainly in the big scheme of things.

If I do it's usually only if my figures tell me a certain horse has a figure that would win at least an average renewal of the race in question. I then have to best guess whether the the horse is likely to run and thankfully nowadays a lot of firm go NRNB earlier than they used to.

To use Black Thunder in the Welsh National as an example:

a) I wouldn't have looked closely at the race too early because of the many imponderables.

b) At the 5-day stage I did my ratings for the ones I thought would make the cut. BT was very near the top but I felt there were strong grounds for believing he was a good bit better than my figure. That was purely personal interpretation of what I was reading.

c) At that point he was generally 16/1 but 50 was available at Betfair to small stakes. No jockey was engaged, the ground was going to be heavy and he had top weight. Clearly at least one person thought this was going to scupper any hopes he had, assuming it wasn't some cnut who knew the hose wasn't going to run.

d) I reasoned that since the race was already a stated possible target he would probably run. If STD took the ride, his Betfair price would fall significantly. If Cobden was booked his allowance would increase his chances significantly. It was a gamble but it was to small stakes. I took the couple of quid available at 50 and the next price was 48 to £7-and-change so I took that. I reckoned if he ran he was the most likely winner so he should have been up there with the then 8/1 shots at least.

e) Had he been 8/1 at that stage I would have waited till Saturday in anticipation of the market competition leading to better prices.


It's all down to personal interpretation of the information to hand when, like me, you really don't have information direct from strong, reliable sources.

In this case the horse didn't win but I still think it might have done had Cobden not baled out...
 
EC, how did you adjust the final percentage for each horse to allow for Gevrey Chambertin being a NR ?

Also two or three seem to have narrowed it down to decimal points as well, did you round up, down or what ?
 
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I'm guilty of the decimal point. I tried to replicate a spreadsheet I used to use when I was experimenting with creating my own tissue to find an edge. I also made a complete hash of the new one hence having to amend. I also make (and made), a 120% book to reflect the bookie prices which gives a better comparison than a 100% book. In terms of creating a spreadsheet that calculates the relative odds I presume EC used something similar, and when he took GC out the odds automatically recalculate?

If I'm honest it's something I gave up a long time ago as it was lot of work and my records were showing a loss. I tried playing with different rules and never found a way to stay ahead. Happy to do it again though as the collective brains on here are significantly larger than my small one.
 
I decided to put the details on a basic spreadsheet to help me develop an understanding of what EC was doing so I added up everyone's percentage for each horse, then divided it by the number of members (11)who posted their percentages which gave me the average percentage but couldn't relate that to the TH tissue. Then I realised EC must have made some sort of adjustment.

What's the calculation to convert the final (correct) percentage into an SP on the TH tissue ?

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I hope others are learning from this thread
 
I can't relate that to my spreadsheet. What is the formula to convert the average percentage (albeit wrong because I don't know how EC calculated it without GC) into the TH tissue price.?
 
Diamond Geezer said:
I can't relate that to my spreadsheet. What is the formula to convert the average percentage (albeit wrong because I don't know how EC calculated it without GC) into the TH tissue price.?
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If you DM me your e-mail I have a spreadsheet that will do it for you.

(Well it will do odds to % so hope for vice versa).

Martin
 
archie said:
As Gevrey took about 10% of the original book, I'd guess that EC probably used a formula similar to
Price = (90/Percentage) - 1
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So in the case of Brother Tedd, EC's final percentage (in the average column) was probably 8% ? i.e. 90/8=11 -1 =10

and if GC had run and Brother Tedd's percentage had still been 8 it would have been 100/8 =12 (or13 ?) -1 =11 (or 12?)
 
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Yes although he may well have gone to a couple of decimal places for the calculation and rounded the final odds to a whole number.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
I can't relate that to my spreadsheet. What is the formula to convert the average percentage (albeit wrong because I don't know how EC calculated it without GC) into the TH tissue price.?
Click to expand...

Its very simple. The formula is

=1/cell

This will turn the percentage into the decimal price. I don't know why others are complicating it.
 
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