Four Odds-on Shots...Who will lose

Which of the Hot Pots is most vulnerable?

  • Dunguib

    Votes: 19 42.2%

  • Master Minded

    Votes: 7 15.6%

  • Big Bucks

    Votes: 11 24.4%

  • Kauto Star

    Votes: 8 17.8%
  • Total voters
    45
  • Poll closed .
Euronymous

Euronymous

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Has there ever been a Festival with four odds-on shots? I can't remember one. I think we all know one or more of them will lose, but which are the most vulnerable?
 
I think they are all vulnerable but I think sheer numbers mean that some are more vulnerable than others. Realistically, Denman is the only one that can beat Kauto. Big Bucks has a few that could beat him and the same could be said for Master Minded. As a novice, Dunguib's jumping could hurt him if it's not spot on come the day but the opposition looks weak enough. So for me, it would be a toss up between Master Minded and Big Bucks.
 
I think the most possible is Big Bucks in the World Hurdle. I cannot see Kauto Star or Master Minded getting beaten, Dunguib surely has too much class. I think the World Hurdle is a lot more competitive than the bookies are making it out to be.
 
I voted for Kauto Star simply because it's a toss-up between himself and Denman.

I'm gagging to oppose Master Minded but can't find anything to beat him.

Karabak will give BB a big scare but will probably fall just short.
 
The other 3 have proven they can win championship races at Chelt so went with Dunguib. He did win a bumper but he now has to deal with hurdles at pace
 
I went with Dunguib solely because there's a bigger chance of that race throwing up something unexposed who loves the potential super-fast pace and idosyncracies of Cheltenham.
 
Kauto is the most vulnerable because of what a beast Denman is, but I still think they'll all hack up.
 
Was i the only one who thought Master Minded was really impressive the last day, bar his mistake? For me he is the strongest Fav out of them all, i think he is the best bet if your into them sort of prices.
 
Kauto is by far the most vulnerable.

Could see MM winning by half the track again, theres nothing much to beat BB, slight concerns bout Dunguib jumping but what English horses are goin to beat him.

Menorah didn't look to have half the engine of Dunguib at weekend.
 
While it is difficult to see what will beat any of them, it is unlikely that they will all win. The size of the field in the Supreme Novice makes Dunguib the most vulnerable I think.
 
I fancy Tidal Bay to go very close, and agree with the thoughts on thr Supreme, allied with Dunguib's relatively poor jumping make him the most likely not to win.
 
It's a good question. I think each of them will win but the accumulated odds tell you it's unlikely that all of them will.

Dunguib's jockey is inexperienced and, arguably, so is his trainer, which might make him the most vulnerable of the quartet. But the most likely way for one of them not to win is miss their race because of injury or be the innocent victim of some incident in running.
 
del boy said:
Was i the only one who thought Master Minded was really impressive the last day, bar his mistake? For me he is the strongest Fav out of them all, i think he is the best bet if your into them sort of prices.
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Nope, delboy - I also thought he was super impressive, and he is by far and away the best of the odds-on shots, imo.
 
Even if you think they'll all win, you might think one of them is more vulnerable than the others?
 
odds on shots in Grade 1 flat races are bad value generally simply because there isn't a great lot between the top animals.

anyone got stats for NH top races with odds onners?

with the level of competition..i would lay them all and not be risking too much of a loss..may well win even
 
del boy said:
Was i the only one who thought Master Minded was really impressive the last day, bar his mistake? For me he is the strongest Fav out of them all, i think he is the best bet if your into them sort of prices.
Click to expand...

Certainly not, del ~ I think a strong argument can be made that 5/6 actually represents a value bet.
 
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