Frankel!

when a 2yo wins like this i often wonder how mature they are..not saying this is the case here..CC did a similar thing in the Coventry

what are people's opinions about his size etc..does he look like he can grow some?
 
On TV he looks like a 4yo sprinter but I always think it's difficult to tell until you see them in the flesh.

What you can be sure of though is that if he is going to develop he's in the right hands to ensure that happens.
 
I'm not totally convinced about him tbh...mature 2yo's can look VERY impressive..then its another game when the others catch and pass them in physical development

i couldn't possibly back him for next year if people think he looks like a 3yo now.
 
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Just because he is a bull of a horse now does not mean he cannot mature further but we will have to wait and see when HC decides to run him again.
 
Seeing the pedigree , the trainer and the horse making debut in Newm in august, not running a group race at doncaster , it looks like has been campaigned as if he is going to be a better horse next year.
I think he will train on, but I have seen him in tv and not in a racecourse so can not be sure.
 
EC1 said:
I'm not totally convinced about him tbh...mature 2yo's can look VERY impressive..then its another game when the others catch and pass them in physical development

i couldn't possibly back him for next year if people think he looks like a 3yo now.
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I thought his time at Donny was super fast?
 
Hamm said:
Does a 10 length beating of a horse rated officially at 99 equals 129? Not sure, unless you think Klammer improved a lot. I also think the O'Brien horses were of much lower standard than in previous seasons.
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There's no point comparing ORs with Timeform ratings as has been pointed out before, as the two aren't measured on the same scale.
 
a 10 length beating..if a length is still measured at 0.2 seconds officially..would equate to 30lbs at a mile

are distances between horses still calculated using the 1 length is 0.2 seconds formula?..at a mile
 
what are people's opinions about his size etc..does he look like he can grow some?
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Thats the more interesting question than the ratings EC. Was with an experienced watcher on Saturday (press box and races 5 times a week) and his view was, yes he would. Also Gallieos are generally better as they mature too maybe?

He is very strong looking for a two year old so there may be an element of others catching up a bit, bit there will be some doubt as to whether they wil catch up enough
 
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In a chequered punting career, I have had two profitable tactics that have stood to me down the years.

1. Back against Bumper monsters when they go over hurdles
2. Back against 2yo monsters as 3yos

I might be wrong this time, but I can live with that. Sorry Frankel and Cue Card, but I think you might be next spring's St Nicholas Abbey and Dunguib
 
Frankel's scintillating performance in the Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes is rated the best in the Ascot contest for 20 years.
The Henry Cecil-trained youngster has earned an official rating of 123 thanks to his 10-length victory in the Group Two contest over a mile on Saturday.
Matthew Tester, British Horseracing Authority handicapper for two-year-olds, said: "It was impossible not to be impressed with the style of Frankel's win at Ascot on Saturday when landing the Royal Lodge by 10 lengths.
"Whilst it is true that none of his opponents were likely to test a champion, the manner of his run and the huge winning margin has landed him an official rating of 123.
"This is easily the best Royal Lodge performance of the last 20 years and puts him well ahead of horses like Benny The Dip (113) and Mister Baileys (115), who won the race before success in the Derby and the 2000 Guineas respectively the next year.
"Eltish at 118 is the next highest winner for this race and he went on to run second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile back in 1994.
"I can't wait to see Frankel take on stronger opposition next time in the Dewhurst Stakes.
"In the last 10 years the highest-rated two-year-olds have been Johannesburg and New Approach, each of whom reached 126.
"It is 16 years since Celtic Swing was credited with 130 for crushing his Racing Post Trophy opposition, nd it will be exciting to see if Frankel can hit those heights," Tester told www.britishhorseracing.com.
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EC1 said:
a 10 length beating..if a length is still measured at 0.2 seconds officially..would equate to 30lbs at a mile

are distances between horses still calculated using the 1 length is 0.2 seconds formula?..at a mile
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The time margin represented by an official "length" on the Flat is 1/6 sec on good going or quicker, 1/5 sec on soft, good to soft in places, or slower, and 2/11 sec for anything in between (which is, I believe, the conversion in this instance).

This applies across all distances.

Don't shoot me: I am only the messenger.
 
First of all, Simon, great article and analysis.

However, how can Timeform suddenly decide to find new ways of getting a rating up higher than how it traditionally calculates ratings? Will this method of adding to a rating be applied to each and every horse, and if not, is it not a little biased to apply it (intriguing though it is) to just one horse?
 
Thanks.

The question re Timeform is one that someone who works at Timeform should answer (I just freelance for them and give advice on general handicapping methodology).

However, I would say that it has always been a mistaken belief in some parts that you either have to have all sectionals or none at all. If you are in a position - as is the case at Ascot - to say that a horse ran a race in an overall time and a sectional time that sheds more light on that horse's ability than simple analysis of the bare result, then you should use that information, imo.

The fact that, in this instance, sectional analysis points to Frankel being a 130 horse, whereas the time (110 with Timeform) and the bare form (125 with Timeform) point to less is surely pertinent.

That you cannot apply the identical methods to Dream Ahead's performance at Newmarket today is to be regretted. But it does not alter the situation where Frankel is concerned.

Timeform takes note of sectionals on the all-weather, which are generally easier to gather, and has long considered them on turf where they can be established and seem to be significant.

Anything more comprehensive than that would have to rely on things beyond Timeform's control, namely pictures in which fixed sectional junctures can be seen easily and the margins between horses gauged fairly accurately, or (ideally) sectional timing becoming part of UK racing.
 
someone on the blog compared Frankel in the Lodge to Nijinsky in his Dewhurst..there is no comparison..Nijinsky was never asked at all in his Dewhurst..its on youtube somewhere..its probably one of the easist G1 wins i've ever seen

he didn't need to be kept up to his work at all.

people are getting carried away here i think
 
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