Free Lay Courtesy Of Paddy Power

EC1

EC1

On a break
Joined
May 7, 2007
Messages
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late 1960's early 70's
Paddy Power are offering your money back if your horse finishes 2nd to Ring The Boss...so they obviously think..for whatever reason ...that the fav is stuffed.

A nice free lay on the favourite then..thanks Paddy
 
this one won, lots have been beaten in the past

why is the reasoning flawed Rory?

at the Cheltenham festival they had a field day with these, on the EBA board at that time everyone was laying them
 
They always do that EC1 when there is a VERY HOT FAV which they agree will win - to encourage people to have a bet on something else! It limits their liability on the favourite to a small extent by balancing the book
 
I read it quite differently Headstrong

They view the fav as weak, therefore the "stakes returned" are minimal...basically a nice bit of PR which costs then little.

Rory may have another view.

I will say though, these generally lose...obviously..because todays won I'll probably be deemed a donut.

just trying to help..probably wasting my time posting tbh.
 
You're so effing precious aren't you EC1? If anyone disagrees with you, it's not because you're talking rubbish, it's that we're (who the hell "we" are is beyond me ~ it's a bunch of relative strangers on a forum) out to get you.

Paddy Power deserve very little respect as shrewdies outside of Ireland. Their offers are at least as much driven by their Marketing department as they are by anyone with a trading hat on. If they wanted to get the favourite, then they would offer enhanced odds on it and therefore get more of it in the book. Remember that their offers are useless to them if they never have to pay out.
 
Paddy Power do specials like this every day of the week -its what they are all about -being seen to give a little bit back to the ordinary punter.Paddy Power are great for specials like this and really good customer service while very rarely offering best price on any individual horse.
 
You're so effing precious aren't you EC1?

why...because I asked you to explain?

I never said your answer was flawed..just asked you one question...yet I'm precious shrug::

sorry for asking you to explain

well..you answered...and I don't buy it

sorry for disagreeing



it just looks like simple logic to me...you are a bookie..you pick a fav that you think is vulnerable...then get punters to beton other horses in the race with an offer of their money back..if 2nd to the dodgy fav

result

you not only take money on a losing fav...you also empty the pockets of more punters that fancy one against it who think that getting their money back is a bonus...when in fact it ain't if you are good at picking the losing fav often enough.

now if thats flawed then fair enough



I could just sit here and read the board...and post f@ck all Rory...because when I do get a response like yours...with no explanation as to why my idea is flawed...it f@cks me off...yes...sorry about that.

it's very easy to say...ooh thats flawed...but I ain't got a bleedin clue why...just thought I'd be negative.


you got a decent response to a post there ...at the top of this thread...that you didn't deserve...then have the f@ckin cheek to come back on calling me names???


be prepared to back up your responses at least Rory
 
EC1 -as i said Powers do this type of special every day of the week on racing and plenty of other sports.They give a little bit back to the ordinary punter-this approach is so successful that the Power daily special is always offered by Boylesports.
 
I understand that Luke

the choice of fav though means that what looks a good deal for the punter can work for the bookie..when the fav fails to win....which means they don't actually have to refund anything

at one time there was another couple of bookies doing a similar thing...on EBA forum we used follow the fav's...they rarely won.

Might be worth monitoring...do they do a horse race everyday?
 
Their offers like this tend to be Saturdays/big meetings
The favourites are usually evens or odds on - and with good reason.

I'm sure it's just a ruse to try to get people to bet against the favourite, people like me who don't back short priced horses so would normally / otherwise leave the race alone - like myself!
Works with me so must be a good ruse! I backed Wingman today because of this offer

It's a way of getting in some money on the race to hedge against the massive payout they face when such a short priced fav wins. Well that's my take on it and it makes sense to me
 
but Headstrong...if the fav wins...they end up giving money back to some punters when their horse finishes 2nd to it....so are not really benefitting

so the obvious ploy is to pick a fav they think won't win...then they don't refund any money...and they take all the money on the fav

it's quite interesting how people read these type of offers...it looks good in their advert...but it's a winner for the bookie when the fav loses as it looks like he is giving some kind of bonus...which he isn't if the races picked have a losing fav.

i always view these races as the bookie passing on his opinion of a bad fav.

lets monitor them..should be a good source of lays imho.
 
lets monitor them..should be a good source of lays imho.
Click to expand...

Sounds like a plan. They'd probably be happy to run it as a loss leader, but worth finding out over the course of a few weeks.
 
Headstrong -you can apply whatever logic you like but its just Powers doing what they do best.At the recent Cheltenham meeting they refunded all bets on fallers-they refunded bets on Dont Push It when he was scratched.Powers have been doing this since they started trading in 1988.
 
Originally posted by EC1@Dec 8 2007, 11:31 PM

lets monitor them..should be a good source of lays imho.
Click to expand...
I'm all for monitoring the offers, good plan [so long as someone else is doing it!]

I remarked at the time how much PP had had to pay out on fallers at the Paddy Power meeting - massive sums esp on Granit Jack
 
In my opinion, this firm cheated me out of a winning bet in May so I no longer have anything to do with them. I got a 2008 diary from them the other day - they couldn't even get my address right FFS - and it went straight in the bin.

I also found their customer services people beyond rude.
 
I've a better idea ~ several members of the forum either work or have worked as odds compilers and will have an idea whether such an offer represents a desire to lay the jolly or simply a PR ploy.

I'm stunned by the logic you use. If you don't like a short priced horse, why would you encourage punters to bet against it? The bookie doesn't have a problem with giving a minority of losing punters a free spin because, as losing punters, they're enormously likely to simply give the money back in extra bets. Similarly, without taking a view, said bookie knows that if the jolly is a real 6/4 chance and there are 15 other runners, then there is a 40% chance of having a money back offer they can promote, but only an average of 6-7% of the punters who qualify for that bonus see any return, and the majority of those will squander that meagre reward, so the bookie gets maximum publicity for minimal return.

This offer tends to apply to a certain type of race ~ one where the favourite is not a working man's price but no certainty and there is no clear choice against it. That way punters will be convinced to bet money they may otherwise have kept in their pockets but will tend to bet over a wide selection of runners, virtually guaranteeing a decent profit with the possibility of a PR opportunity thrown in.

Paddy Power are brilliant at promoting themselves in such a way, but to credit them with the intelligence to take a view in such a way is laughable. The only maths they do is to maximise the chance of promoting these money back specials while managing to give back as little as possible. That's good marketing.

BTW ~ this isn't just random opinion and as someone who works in a trading environment and who previously did the same in a marketing capacity for Ladbrokes, I can assure you it's simple fact.

My comment in my first post are based on my observations over some time and not just on this thread or this forum. You are very precious about your opinions which are often left field and sometimes of some interest, but often simply flawed. When you get no response or a negative response you always take it as if it's a personal affront to you (note the clique thread). Newsflash ~ it's not all about you and if you weren't so defensive then you might garner a little bit more support, not least from me.
 
oh dear Rory

haven't you spent a lot of time there telling me how to behave? :(

thanks for the free analysis of my persona...appreciate it :brows:

I like your response to the question though...sort of...I could just say your thinking is flawed too ...but I'm not that arrogant..you might be right...whereas you just KNOW that I'm wrong...possibly a persona flaw in your good self?

thanks for the posting anyway...i'll be suitably well behaved in future
 
Somehow managed to miss this thread before.

Rory is right - in fact EC1, I'd say that the trading department possibly have very little say in such marketing stunts.

The way it tends to work is the marketing department want to increase turnover on an event (a televised large field handicap hurdle with a short priced favourite is absolutely ideal as not many armchair punters will be that keen to get involved as the fav is so short priced) so they think up a gimmicky offer to go alongside it. The marketing departments often have their own budgets so any losses will come out of the marketing budget rather than the trading one ergo the trading desk won't play a massive part in deciding the offer ~ they will be told about it and asked for any large objections but aren't likely to have devised the idea or implemented it.

As Rory says, it's all a gimmick to try to encourage the weekend armchair, tenner-a-time punters to have a bet on every televised race with them.
 
yes

but..do we agree..it's better for the bookie if the fav loses

don't forget there was an earlier big televised handicap race yesterday..with an even shorter price fav in...why not pick that race ..the point about attracting more punters to that.. less appealing..betting wise ...race would have made more sense

i think it's the strength of the fav chance that swings them towards certain races..hence not picking totherone's race..they knew they would be refunding lots of money on that race
 
EC - you're missing a fundamental point here I fear - it's always better for the bookie if a favourite loses!!!! That's gimmicky offer or no gimmicky offer!!

These type of offers really aren't done in order to "lay the favourite", they are done to increase turnover, attract new punters and try to give those punters a reason to bet with them for every race rather than go elsewhere.

I can't agree completely over the race being picked over the strength of the favourite either, factor of the race being on terrestrial TV will work far better in its favour. However when it comes to a race with an odds on favourite, especially in a race that is 1/4, 1-2-3-4, that is when the trading desk will step in and veto such a move. Firms are going to lose money on such a dodgy each way race, both on the favourite and in the place book, so the last race they want to attract any custom to with gimmicky offers would have been The T'Other One's race yesterday.
 
I know they aren't done to lay the fav...if thats the impression I've given I apologise

my take..is that the race picked will have a fav that the bookie has assessed will more than likely be beat...then any generous offer he makes about paying money back to those whose selection finishes 2nd to it...isn't really generous...it just looks it beforehand.

if the race was being picked to take more money..because Joe punter wouldn't play in the race that has a solid fav...then I think they would have picked the punter unfriendly totherones race yesterday...they didn't pick that race because they knew they would pretty definately be giving money back to punters backing horses that finished 2nd.

The only reason a bookie makes an offer like this is to promise something he knows he won't have to deliver very often over a period of time.

thats why..I view them as dodgy fav's..worth laying
 
This is going around in circles, EC! I've explained to you precisely why NO bookie would have entertained the idea of doing such an offer in a race like The T'Other One's yesterday - they already know it will be a losing race with a horrendously under-round place book so don't want to make their fieldbook any worse than they know it will be in the first place.
 
so you are saying they knew totherone WOULD win more than likely... and didn't want to be also paying out on any other horses finishing second to it...but assessed that the other one wouldn't win so knew they could offer money back

which is totally where I'm going with this

the whole premise is...the bookie will only do something that benefits him..he is unlikely to want to be paying out on a winning fav and also giving lots of money back to people that have backed the 2nd horse is he?

so it's logic that the race in which he makes an offer to pay back stakes..it's better if the fav loses..therefore giving no stakes back

from that..I assume the race picked has a fav that the bookie has freely assesseed for me as being a poor fav.
 
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