Free Lay Courtesy Of Paddy Power

There is a clear pattern emerging of Powers choosing the big handicap of the day for their special offer-theres a surprise.
 
that isn't always the way though Luke...the year Sweet Wake and BOS were favourites for the big Cheltenham races they were also chosen

nobodyon this thread has correctly predicted why the races are chosen...they aren't just short priced fav's or big handicap race ones as they pick lesser handicaps as well.


so it may seem some people are convinced they know the selection criteria...but clearly they don't
 
Seems to me that the clear pattern of favourite in biggest handicap has been established from the four specials you have put forward so far.

I still dont know why PP would want you to back a more likely winner, safe in the knowledge that you will get your money back if you are beaten by the favourite.
 
EC1 -a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.I think you will find when it comes to Cheltenam Paddy Power offer specials in as many races as they can.
 
Can you believe it Powers have the big race at Warwick as tomorrows moneyback special race.They obviously don't fancy Arnold Layne.
 
i wonder if it's possible to get so many negative, sarky posts on one thread

maybe some people should question just why they do post sometimes

is sneering really that clever?


i like a laugh same as anyone does...but hiding behind the laugh just to have a dig at someone seems pretty sad imho


just my view

it's bound to be wrong of course...as i have no doubt i will no doubt be told/chastised by my betters
 
cheers Steve

That list appears to blow the theory of only using the best value/most high profile race of the day clean out of the water. Confirming yet again that the alternate theories to how the races are chosen listed on this thread are just assumptions.

The results from those archives, when an actual horse is named and no stipulations made on how far beaten:

24 Jan: Newbay Prop Lost 5/1
23 Jan: Honour's Dream Lost 6/1
22 Jan: Little Firecracker Lost 4/1
21 Jan: Nike Walker Lost 15/8
20 Jan: Bold Diva Lost 9/4
18 Jan: The Salwick Flyer WON 4/1
 
Could you tell me which race was higher profile or of more value then the Thyestes which Newbay Prop ran in.I do apologize for my factual approach to this matter.
 
I know some of them are high profile Luke, but some of those were AW races worth very little.

If they just picked the highest profile race EVERY time I would agree that there is nothing more to it than has been suggested.

I'll keep updating it and see what the actual results tell us, it's clear up to press that it's nothing special as a 4/1 winner every now and then levels it up.
 
EC1 -I see you are dazzling the forum on the New Aproach thread.Any chance of an update on your "PaddyPower" system.
 
LUKE said:
I'm here to point out the obvious flaws in crackpot systems.
Click to expand...


well it's a pity that in the previous pages you have patently failed to do so...along with every other poster.

it's quite clear that when I posted this thread...a lot of people jumped in..assuming they THOUGHT they knew which races were used...and why the races were picked....and used it as a vehicle to make themselves look smart.

from the various answers it's clear that taking the pi** don't look so smart when you don't really know what the basis of the race selection is.

over the last six months...backing the 2nd & 3rd fav ...instead of laying the fav has shown a LSP in these races

of course you would know that Luke with monitoring them wouldn't you?

your time might be better spent posting something positive on the board rather than trying to impress folk here with your smug ignorant postings which you seem to find amusing.

Sarcastic snidey postings like the one you restarted this thread with tell me quite a lot about the sort of person you are...cowardly would be the main thing that comes to mind...hiding behind sneering comments ain't attractive.

well done for showing your true colours anyway...having a spine ...even late in the day..is better than nowt.
 
EC1. I'm sorry. I still cant see why PP would encourage you to back the second and third favourites in the race, knowing that if they do happen to get beaten by the favourite, that the punter is given their money back.

If PP take a line on a horse, that the favourite is likely to get beat, why are they encouraging you NOT to bet on the horse.

I still cant see your logic.
 
oh no Garney:p

we can't go here again.

PP offer your stake back if horse finishes 2nd to fav...looks a good offer...pulls in more folk to bet...

if the fav wins every time though...then they actually lose money off the 2nd horse that they would have kept if they had not made such a "generous" offer.

so it's obvious they need to see the fav as being pretty vulnerable in the races they pick...the offer is actually worthless to the punter if they pick races where they class the fav as vulnerable..because PP are then offering something they will never have to pay out

good PR...gets more people betting with them..

The idea for me was to use these races to benefit from...hence my way of accepting their "poor fav" tell...initially I thought laying would be ok...but I have found that betting 2nd & 3rd market fav as a way of profiting from it.

A lot of people on here have also failed to see that it would be bloody stupid to refund stakes if the fav was seen as strong...you would be giving lost stakes back all the time...hardly a great ploy for a bookie.

can't explain it no further..coz I'm pretty sure I'm having me leg pulled again here

one thing this thread has taught me...never EVER post any strategies for discussion on here
 
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But you accept that they are actually encouraging people to bet on the second and third favourites in these races. A strategy that has proved profitable to you.

They are discouraging people from betting on the favourite straight.

This would only make sense to the bookmaker if they think the favourite was going to win. If they thought the favourite was going to lose they would encourage people to bet on the favourite.

Which is exactly the opposite of what you are saying.

If you fancied the second or third favourite, you know that your stake would be returned if he is beatne by the favourite. I fail to comprehend how it could be viewed any otehr way.
 
no Garney

and no :o

I am not backing anything with PP at all

I am taking a view that they will only make the offer if they believe they will not have to pay the stakes back...ie...NO horse finishes 2nd to the fav...because the fav loses

with that "view"...I can either lay the fav on betfair...or...my preferred option is to back the 2nd & 3rd fav on Betfair...some of the named horses they offer are out of my comfort zone..laying wise.

Now..I might be giving PP more credit than they deserve..maybe they just randomly pick races...but if that is the case then they are the worst business men ever.


This is purely a brains picking exercise...and initially my reason for posting was I thought it was an angle worth looking at...unfortunately...through misunderstanding...or just the need to squash me down...the whole thread has been f''''ed up..by such as Luke...who is more interested in belittling me...which he is cr*p at...than actually seeing what I was getting at.

Like I said..I won't bother in future....and haven't bothered since...I would expect there are other non posters who read this forum who will never venture a post on here after reading the derisive shite I have had on here.

not very good for encouraging new posters is it?
 
EC1 you must have realised that there are a few people on here who only post to try to make themselves look clever, and their 'victim' look foolish or worse. They tend to have one or two people they do this too, all the time it's a kind of stalking. It's very childish and although annoying and even sometimes upsetting, there's no reason to let it spoil a broad enjoyment of the forum.

I've got my few stalkers on here as several of us have - best to let them show themselves up, and just ignore them. I also 'know who my friends are' - not least from my pms :p
 
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thanks Headstrong

Some people have to have a kicking dog...you are right there

I don't bother much now anyway..just got a bit involved in the NA thread...but have lost appetite for messageboards tbh

cheers
 
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