French 1000 & 2000 Guineas
- Thread starter Hamm
- Start date
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Oh! bugger!!
With a field this size it has all the ingredients to end up in a scrummage and if ever a so called classic had outsider written all over it, it's this one. I haven't seen any market for it yet. I don't always look at one prior to trying to sort a race out, as I find it can lead me. Having said that it's damned annoying to unravel a handicap after an hour only to discover you've found a 5/2 fav, but by the same token, it's always nice when you've gone a long way towards convincing yourself of the winner, and then discover it's 16's.
The ground will be about +3.00 on my scale which is on the quicker side of Good to Firm i've Paris has been experiencing similar temperatures to us and Longchamp behaves in its normal fashion. Ascot and Lingfield both rodes +3.84 and +4.40 on the straight course yesterday dropping to +1.87 and +2.59 on the round courses. Few of the horses have form on such going although French description are notoriously unreliable, but for the time being I'm half prepared to accept that a combination of the lousy weather we had last eyar in Northern Europe and the wet start to the Spring means there's a fair chance that many will be encountering it for the first real time.
The evidence of the draw isn't necessarily backed up by the history books, but then rarely have we seen a field this size. Victory Note won from stall 11 of 12, and Astronomer Royal 9 of 14, Vahorimix 7 of 11. A middle to low bias seems to exist, and I'm tentatively prepared to avoid those high drawn and wonder if a few might not cut their own throats early, or get in each others way. I'm sure we're going to see some hard luck story or two.
With this in mind I'm nervously prepared to give A/W form a chance reasoning that Polytrack might be the nearest that some of these have come to G/F. So this is how Warblers unfathonable logic has unfolded. Only two horses have Gp1 winning form, and one of those I'm highly sceptical about, even though Shamardal won the race a week after Dubawi flopped. The line of thought starts with Andre Fabre's 'Thewayyouare' who beat Hello Morning 0.5L. Hello Morning was beaten by Tamayuz 1.25L's, giving a Tamayuz a theoretical 0.75L advantage over Thewayyouare. This is however contradicted through Blue Chagall (1 of 4 Gp3 winners in the field) who was beaten by both horses 6.25L's and 7.5L's in seperate races, and thus handing the advantage back to the Thewayyouare by 1.25L's. In any event it ties them in as being close to each other
Anyway, when Hello Morning was beaten by Tamayuz, the second horse home Murcielago went down by a head. Murcielago was then beaten by 1L on the A/W at Deauville by Yorktown with the winner giving 3Ibs and being noted as having "plenty in hand". This would give Yorktown (drawn 5) a theoretical margin of just short of 2.25L's at level weight over Tamayuz, larger than Thewayyouare's. The same line can be used as the unbeaten Tamayuz's (theortetically held by Yorktown about 2L's) defeat of Hello Morning, (1L and a hd) means that Yorktown holds Hello Morning by about 3L's and thus Thewayyouare by 2.5L's this time, through Hello Morning.
Blue Chagall contradicts the form though. He beat Yorktown in the Prix Des Chenes when Yorktown finished a close last having lost both front shoes. Blue Chagall let the form down further but confirmed the close proximity to each other of Tamyuz beaten by 6.25L's and Thewayyouare beaten by a shade more at 7.5L's. Tamyuz obviously has a line to throw all this out through Blue Chagall and the Prix Fontinbleau, but this was run on heavy, and I'm prepared to accept the excuse for the Prix des Chenes that suggests the forms unrelaible and won't apply with today's going and draw.
Mind you, if you're prepared to take some historical 2yo form into account, Thewayyouare has a 0.5L verdict over Ravens Pass through Centenial.
I'm tempted to take a chance on Yorktown, but this looks an absolute swine.
Whose got the strongest line to Danehill? he's provided 3 of the last 6 winners as well as 2 places. At least Zarkava makes the fillies race relatively straight forward to nominate
The ground will be about +3.00 on my scale which is on the quicker side of Good to Firm i've Paris has been experiencing similar temperatures to us and Longchamp behaves in its normal fashion. Ascot and Lingfield both rodes +3.84 and +4.40 on the straight course yesterday dropping to +1.87 and +2.59 on the round courses. Few of the horses have form on such going although French description are notoriously unreliable, but for the time being I'm half prepared to accept that a combination of the lousy weather we had last eyar in Northern Europe and the wet start to the Spring means there's a fair chance that many will be encountering it for the first real time.
The evidence of the draw isn't necessarily backed up by the history books, but then rarely have we seen a field this size. Victory Note won from stall 11 of 12, and Astronomer Royal 9 of 14, Vahorimix 7 of 11. A middle to low bias seems to exist, and I'm tentatively prepared to avoid those high drawn and wonder if a few might not cut their own throats early, or get in each others way. I'm sure we're going to see some hard luck story or two.
With this in mind I'm nervously prepared to give A/W form a chance reasoning that Polytrack might be the nearest that some of these have come to G/F. So this is how Warblers unfathonable logic has unfolded. Only two horses have Gp1 winning form, and one of those I'm highly sceptical about, even though Shamardal won the race a week after Dubawi flopped. The line of thought starts with Andre Fabre's 'Thewayyouare' who beat Hello Morning 0.5L. Hello Morning was beaten by Tamayuz 1.25L's, giving a Tamayuz a theoretical 0.75L advantage over Thewayyouare. This is however contradicted through Blue Chagall (1 of 4 Gp3 winners in the field) who was beaten by both horses 6.25L's and 7.5L's in seperate races, and thus handing the advantage back to the Thewayyouare by 1.25L's. In any event it ties them in as being close to each other
Anyway, when Hello Morning was beaten by Tamayuz, the second horse home Murcielago went down by a head. Murcielago was then beaten by 1L on the A/W at Deauville by Yorktown with the winner giving 3Ibs and being noted as having "plenty in hand". This would give Yorktown (drawn 5) a theoretical margin of just short of 2.25L's at level weight over Tamayuz, larger than Thewayyouare's. The same line can be used as the unbeaten Tamayuz's (theortetically held by Yorktown about 2L's) defeat of Hello Morning, (1L and a hd) means that Yorktown holds Hello Morning by about 3L's and thus Thewayyouare by 2.5L's this time, through Hello Morning.
Blue Chagall contradicts the form though. He beat Yorktown in the Prix Des Chenes when Yorktown finished a close last having lost both front shoes. Blue Chagall let the form down further but confirmed the close proximity to each other of Tamyuz beaten by 6.25L's and Thewayyouare beaten by a shade more at 7.5L's. Tamyuz obviously has a line to throw all this out through Blue Chagall and the Prix Fontinbleau, but this was run on heavy, and I'm prepared to accept the excuse for the Prix des Chenes that suggests the forms unrelaible and won't apply with today's going and draw.
Mind you, if you're prepared to take some historical 2yo form into account, Thewayyouare has a 0.5L verdict over Ravens Pass through Centenial.
I'm tempted to take a chance on Yorktown, but this looks an absolute swine.
Whose got the strongest line to Danehill? he's provided 3 of the last 6 winners as well as 2 places. At least Zarkava makes the fillies race relatively straight forward to nominate
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Did I get the start right, the Cole horse was put in the outside stall because the one he was in was damaged......can that be right?
With the horse running so well, there must be a case for some sort of appeal!!!
With the horse running so well, there must be a case for some sort of appeal!!!
It is her style of racing to come from that far back, she is probably not a filly you could ride very handy. Plenty were making up ground late on from the back.
Taking nothing away from her, she did it impressively but still has a bit to prove in my opinion before (as RUK are describing her as ) she can be called a great filly etc.
Taking nothing away from her, she did it impressively but still has a bit to prove in my opinion before (as RUK are describing her as ) she can be called a great filly etc.
I'd like to see Zarkava go for the Derby - I think she'd win it! When did a filly last run? It's still permitted btw
Cole's colt is notorious for playing up in the stalls, as he did - he was already drawn right on the outside, or almost, and putting him in an even further one away from the others didn't make much difference to his chances draw-wise but did calm him down, according to Cole [as reported on the Sportinglife website]
Cole's colt is notorious for playing up in the stalls, as he did - he was already drawn right on the outside, or almost, and putting him in an even further one away from the others didn't make much difference to his chances draw-wise but did calm him down, according to Cole [as reported on the Sportinglife website]
Shadow Leader
At the Start
- Joined
- Nov 9, 2003
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¡Que sorpresa! A Cole inmate playing up in the stalls, or indeed showing any signs of temperament and/or being a headcase. Par for the course, I'm afraid....
rorydelargy
At the Start
Cape Verdi was the last filly to run in the Derby and ran ######. [/b][/quote]
She went off favourite too, if memory serves.
If they are going to run a filly against the colts Heads, at that distance, it will be more likely the Arc. I advised a watching brief with said filly and said race a couple of weeks ago, but personally, I don't see it
Quick edit
The fillies I'm thinking of ,have all been 4Yo's?
Quick edit
The fillies I'm thinking of ,have all been 4Yo's?
But her times suggeset to me she might be up to it?Several fillies have run against the colts later in the season but it's very rare now for one to run in the Derby, tho it was quite common in years gone by. It would certainly be a novelty! - and if it's going to be done ever again, why not in a year with nothing outstanding among the colts? The best of those seem currently all to be aimed at the Irish Derby