French Guineas

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Aragorn

At the Start
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Anyone got any views on the french guineas today? Can't say I have any handle on the French form but the English raiders would look to have a bit to find in a typical guineas. Nice to see a son of Zarkava running but a lot of non-group race form coming into this makes it a watching brief for me.

Straight mile changes the dynamic as well.
 
The Poulains looks very trappy and I can't see a bet.

Alice Springs looks nailed on to run well in the Pouliches but Qemah was really impressive last time out at Chantilly. It's good today rather than soft but she acted well enough on good in the Boussac and she'll do for me.
 
Qemah for me in the Pouliches.
Good run behind Ballydoyle last season. Her prep run for this last month was taking to say the least.

Less convinced in the Poulains. Dicton e/w for me. Not sure he should be that big a price for this.
 
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I was a monster fan of Zarkava and would love to see Zarak win today.

He's done nothing wrong so far and won well enough from George Patton last time.

You couldn't say he won hard held or in a canter and George Patton ran like he had never seen a racecourse before hanging badly in the last furlong.

If the betting is any guide the best of J-C Rouget is not George Patton but Zelzal.

Heart says Zarak but the head says Zelzal is the bet.......be happy to be proved wrong
 
JamesRB said:
derby hoss?
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By Galileo, of course, but his pedigree on the dam's side isn't a middle-distance one. A bit like Minding.

Qemah ran too freely in the early stages. She got away with it last time out but it did for her today.

Alice Springs was disappointing, to say the least.
 
Listen,listen he could be the best 3 yo colt seen so far. The lads really do have a decision to make. French derby seems the logical step and if ballydoyle had a top derby horse he wouldn't be going to Epsom. Seriously impressive.
 
gus said:
By Galileo, of course, but his pedigree on the dam's side isn't a middle-distance one. A bit like Minding.
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I'm no dosage expert - I'll leave that to SteveM - but these fiugres:

DP = 5-1-11-4-1 (22) DI = 1.10 CD = 0.23

suggest to me that 12f shouldn't be a serious issue.
 
class might be more of an issue though, unless we think he will improve for the step up in trip. The runner up was beaten further by Galileo Gold at HQ.
 
I should probably have said that the damside of the pedigree doesn't guarantee that he'll stay middle distances.

His dam, by Danehill Dancer, was a 7f winner at two. The furthest she ever went was 9f and her performances over that trip were some way inferior to her form at shorter. The Gurkha is her third foal. The first two won as juveniles at around 7f. That was the only run for one of them and the other was never tried beyond 9f. The second dam won over 10f, only ran once at 12f, but is certainly related to middle-distance horses and good ones at that.

The Gurkha certainly stays a mile very well and should get further. You couldn't rule out him staying the Derby trip (although I've had my say about the stiffness of the Epsom 12f and I'm not going to go over that again) but I don't think I'd go as far as saying it shouldn't be a serious issue. It might be, it might not.




 
True, gus, but I'm pretty sure the dosage system pretty much ignores the superficial elements of the damside of the pedigree and focuses on the prepotent stallions which include Shirley Heights, Mill Reef and Northern Dancer.

As I said, on dosage, I wouldn't have any worries. On class [as suggested by simmo] and/or form I'll need to look more closely.
 
The pace the horse showed to kick 2 to 3 lengths clear then kick again to win by 5and a half lengths suggests he can win group ones at 10 to 12 f. As for whether he is good enough the rapid progress he has made since his debut suggests further improvement to come. The bookies already have him fav for the derby so they certainly fear the horse more than galileo gold. The manner of his victory will have more than the coolmore lads purring with what he might do as the season progress es
 
For me, the speed he showed yesterday (beating relative trees, mind) indicates he's unlikely to get 12f, and may even struggle at 10. Not the Guineas win of Camelot or Sea The Stars, which showed they'd almost certainly improve for further, more the Irish Guineas of Kingman which suggested he might be equally as good over shorter. Worth bearing in mind his dam won her 7f gp3 in similar fashion, yet proved useless over 1m and more later.
Might be Derby fav with some, IMVHO, I doubt he'll even run.
 
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reet hard said:
Worth bearing in mind his dam won her 7f gp3 in similar fashion, yet proved useless over 1m and more later.
Might be Derby fav with some, IMVHO, I doubt he'll even run.
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The dam was so useless as a 3yo I'm not sure I would blame the trip for it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
True, gus, but I'm pretty sure the dosage system pretty much ignores the superficial elements of the damside of the pedigree and focuses on the prepotent stallions which include Shirley Heights, Mill Reef and Northern Dancer.

As I said, on dosage, I wouldn't have any worries. On class [as suggested by simmo] and/or form I'll need to look more closely.
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To be honest, I regard dosage as pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo. Reducing it to a series of numbers and talking about "chefs de race" and "prepotency" is just nonsense in my book.

As I've said, he might stay, he might not. If he does, I wouldn't be worried about his class/ability. A five and a half length winner of a competitive Poulains is basically top class, for me. I wouldn't be bothered about whether or not First Selection was beaten a bit further in our Guineas. I'm inclined to take a broad brush approach to the form.
 
edgt said:
He was some tool to come up against in a Navan maiden is all I say.
A long time since a french 2000 Gns winner troubled the judge at Epsom but we shall wait and see.
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Relko was the last one, wasn't he?

Looking at the pedigrees of some of the previous g1 winners by Galileo, I don't think the dams of Cape Blanco, Found, Intello, Lush Lashes, Red Rocks, Order of st George, Tapestry or Was added more stamina to their progeny than Chintz ( The Gurkha ) or Lillie Langtry ( Minding ) will do. All those ones seemed to stay 12f all right.

The Gurkha's fifth dam produced Green Dancer, who also won the Poule before running at Epsom as a 6/4 favourite. He finished sixth behind Grundy.
 
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LBM said:
Looking at the pedigrees of some of the previous g1 winners by Galileo, I don't think the dams of Cape Blanco, Found, Intello, Lush Lashes, Red Rocks, Order of st George, Tapestry or Was added more stamina to their progeny than Chintz ( The Gurkha ) or Lillie Langtry ( Minding ) will do. All those ones seemed to stay 12f all right.
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None of whom showed the speed to win a Guineas - let alone over a furlong out.
 
I think Found, Intello, Lush Lashes and Tapestry could have been very competitive in a Guineas in other circumstances, but I agree that The Gurkha looks better suited for the French Derby, although it wouldn't be a surprise if he stays further in the future.
 
Not convince that The Gurkha is anything special.

It was visually impressive but way too often we are fooled into thinking horses are better than they appear to be when winning by a long way.

Thew time certainly doesn't back up the winning distance as it was slower than the 1000 Guineas.

Also off putting is the fact he was a massuve price for the Derby prior to the Guineas win.

So this unfancied Derby entry is now 3/1 after winning a suspect in quality race..........Me thinks I will be sticking with Awlaad who will take some beating in the Irish 2000 guineas
 
Sometimes you just have to believe what you see. The ghurka maiden win has certainly worked out and he probably improved for the good ground. He's already rated as 124 with a large p so many form judges think he's the real deal. Hopefully he'll go to the French derby or St James palace depending how air force blue does in the Irish guineas. I too don't want to get carried away but he looks a horse with loads more to come and has a super temperament.
 
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