Ayr – Saturday 19th September 2009
2.05 – The Ayr Silver Gold Cup
The key to the Silver and Gold Cups does come down to the draw but the key to the draw is often more about pace and its key to find what draw the pace is with. Of the 27 runners, I would establish a split of around 16, the two previous sprints at the meeting have gone low, so in the silver I expect 1 – 16, to go far side, and a smaller field of 11 coming near side from 17 upwards.
I will now establish those pace angles and the following like to be on the pace from their draws, I will take the 13 which chase the pace;
Low – Pusey Street Lady (1), Thebes (10), Invisible Force (15), Quest For Success (9), & Tajneed (12)
High – Cape Vale (26), My Gacho (20), Joseph Henry (24), Aye Aye Digby (18), Red Cape (22), Six Of Hearts (19), Horatio Carter (23) & Johannes (25)
Looking at the above I can easily see that there is more pace on the stands side and with this I’m going to go against the trends and look for horses drawn 13 +, as I hope a few of those between 13 and 18 have looked on the pace angles and seen that there is more pace stands side and will decide to go against the trends of yesterday.
Johannes may have disappointed last time but I expect that was down to the fact it was 5f and his figure of 73 wasn’t far off the best of those drawn high. Recording an 81 and a 77 on recent starts over 6f on quick ground, he really isn’t out of this and a return to 6f should see him in the mix.
Some punters will be hoping that Prescription is just what the doctor has ordered and despite getting beat last time out she put up a career best with a figure of 74. That’s a fair level here and she got caught on heels coming round the bend that day. The horse who beat her Jaconet was a leading fancy for the Gold Cup for me if he got in, so I wouldn’t be keen on writing her off and I personally feel a straight 6f will bring about improvement. She is a big player.
My Gacho, Joseph Henry and Cape Vale love to blaze from the front and all of them are not too far off these on the figures but I’m struggling to see something making all here and that opens the door to something which will close the pace down, or sprint late.
Protector (16) could well be a massive player and was 6th at this meeting last season he also managed a sharp 4th when producing a figure of 70 at Doncaster in Conditions company at the end of the season. Below par on a couple of starts this season, the return to quicker ground will really suit him and having once been rated 103, he has slipped to a cracking mark of 90 which see’s him a player today.
Skhilling Spirit (21) just missed the cut for the Gold Cup but he is a player in this despite top weight providing he gets out the stalls. He has been looking intriguing off his mark for a while and his 6th last time at York hinted a return to form could be on its way. Having run to a 78 in the past, a return to his best form would see him go close.
Mister Hardy (27) has disappointed in his last three races over 7f, but reverting to 6f where he has figured 78 in the past I wouldn’t like to write him off. He’ll need luck in running hugging in the rail but he is a possible.
Overall I want to take four from this and I will be looking high, Johannes is one I expect to be up there from the word go and can be a solid ew, whilst Protector & Prescription look ones who will relish conditions and have profiles which could easily see them go close.
However MISTER HARDY may need the breaks from stall 27, but he won’t be miles off the pace, has the stands rail to bag and finishes strongly. He loves this ground, and stays further, so he’ll be finishing and his best form on quick ground and 6f gives him only 1 or 2lb to find with the best of these. He has Freddie Tylicki on board taking 3lb off and with the Fahey team in flying form he looks set to claim this big race.
Advised bets
1.5pts Ew Mister Hardy @ 25/1 (5 places general)
0.75pts Ew Prescription @ 8/1 (Bet 365, 5 places) & Protector @ 40/1 (Stan James, 5 places)
0.5pts Ew Johannes @ 16/1 (Bet 365, 5 places)
3.10 – Ayr Gold Cup
Like the Silver Cup pace becomes the main angle once more and again I use my pace stakes to look at where the quickest 13 are to decide which side I want to pin my flag to, we’ll split at 1 – 15 for low, and 16 plus high;
Low – Abbondanza (14), Mac Gille Eoin (12), Knot In Wood (9), Wi Dud (10), Evens And Odds (3), Garnica (5), Advanced (4), Signor Peltro (8), & Intrepid Jack (13)
High – Madame Trop Vote (19), Fol Hollow (25), Brave Prospector (20) & Magic Cat (18).
Sadly for those drawn high this time, I just don’t see any way of them getting the call and I would expect to see Fol Hollow to bag the rail and probably do well from the front.
However I must look low here, and I’m going to take the split at 15.
Of those low, I expect a big run from Jimmy Styles, the gaps didn’t come for him last time out and he flashed home late into 3rd, in what was a strong handicap. This quick ground 6f should be ideal and in good form he looks a player.
Evens And Odds looks the best of the Dandy Nicholls sextet but for me Advanced is a big player on his Great St Wilfred effort and he was narrowly beaten on what was probably tacky ground. Well drawn here, Amy Ryan seems to have built a good partnership with the horse and he looks very solid ew.
Zidane hinted there was more to come last time and with the Fanshawe horses coming back into form, I’m quietly confident that he is capable of running a big race from stall 1, he’ll be looking for room up the far rail but that could well be the place to be for me.
Knot In Wood really does deserve a big one and is always a solid player in these sprints, whilst Striking Spirit has the appeal of a horse probably laid out for this.
Signor Peltro will track the pace also and he has a good finishing boot. I feel he was unlucky last time and with that I feel he may not be badly handicapped still and this flat 6f will really suit him, he is a player for me.
There could be a local success however with Hogmaneigh and Jim Goldie. He is well handicapped on his best form and comes here with every chance, I rate him a massive player on his former form and his run at Epsom two starts ago wouldn’t be a million miles off what’s needed here. An abundance of pace he could come sprinting through when it matters. Write him off at your own peril.
Overall its quick and taxing but for me something tells me that Hogmaneigh, Advanced and Jimmy Styles all have big races to run from chasing the pace and being able to finish. I’m keen on the chances of Signor Peltro and he is another player but I’ve had my eye on ZIDANE for some time and with the yard coming back to form, quick ground and a strong pace to chase, I see him a major player here. Everything for him has a tick in the box and having been rated 109 this time last year, a mark of 102 could be ideal. His run in listed company last time at Newmarket makes him a big player and on the surface he loves, I can see him taking this big prize.
Advised Bets
2pts Ew Zidane @ 20/1 (Boylesports, 5 places)
0.75pts Ew, Advanced @ 14/1 (Stan James, 5 places), Jimmy Styles @ 16/1 (5 places, general)
0.5pts Ew Signor Peltro @ 16/1 (Stan James, 5 places), Hogmaneigh @ 18/1 (5 places, general)
Good Luck
Chris
