Friday 13th March - Day Four Cheltenham 2026 Bets, Betting, Race & Runner Analysis

[chaumi]

Running total for March now +285.38

A little rueful reflection on yesterday - I hadn't realized how close Duke Silver was to that coveted 4th place. So, that fairly inspired ante post Joseph O'Brien EW Trebles/4-folds was actually the mid 4 figures return bet. The Duke in the frame would have done it. A head and 2 inches! Mildly painful in retrospect!

He has two in the Irish Lincolnshire on Sunday. Don't scream winners immediately, and one of them is Dignam. I'd have to go look at the recording, but maybe Dignam wasn't actually given a hard time in the Fred Winter. Has won (a hurdle) off a 7 day break before. Obviously this is a slightly shorter gap, but you'd have to assume if he goes then Joseph thinks he'll be OK for it. The other one - Sindria - does have the whiff of a possibility on paper.

On to today...

Well, it's certainly exceedingly pleasant going into the last day not needing a winner. A fairly unusual occurrence, regularly enough that it's down to the County to get out of trouble.

It's extra nice this year...because fvck me I am struggling to see where a winner is going to come from.

• The Triumph is the usual nightmare.
• Everyone and their dog knows about Tellherthename in the County and I don't immediately see anything else.
• The Mares there is nothing that's going to win at a price.
• Albert Bartlett - I did think Espresso Milan might have a chance, but the riding arrangements suggest unlikely.
• Not sure if I've backed anything in a Gold Cup since the Commander. Seems next to anything could win this one. Though that might be an opportunity rather than a problem.
• If Music Drive is a reasonable price in the Hunters, could take some pennies. Although that would be a fairly pointless guess. But if Music Drive can run a race, that suggests Gracchus De Balme can, too, with known big-field form. And he's at fairly lofty odds currently.
• La Pinsonniere would have been mighty interesting in the Martin Pipe (now runs Kempton Sat, unlikely double figures but if she is then she's a bet). From what's left, nothing jumps out.

An odd final day with nothing shouting sack, crack, and back. Can't recall one quite like it. Clearly, the best option will be to watch and enjoy it with nowt on (there are some things you just can't unsee once you've seen them!). Will have to see how it goes and hope some inspiration strikes.

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Looks potentially painful everywhere else, too. Will have to be very careful. Likely it's only worth properly considering anything in the 40+ bracket, which will rule a significant number of these out. Having said that, three or four winners wouldn't be a total surprise either...

Remember, these are always first pass. They'll all need deeper thought closer to race time ( edit* though added some early thoughts in places, and with a second check the majority are single figures, so probably/possibly no bets)...

Jetzet 4.55 Don **Edit: Is expected. If it were soft, would probably be a 'should be odds on'. But there are at least 3 others that on paper/breeding/trainer could upset the fav on likely fastish ground.

Painted Wolf 2.54 Fakenham

Adaay Dancing 3.34 Fak

Takeit Easy 4.15 Fak * Edit, prob too old, but there is a parallel universe where a case can be made.

Tickettothestars 4.30 Southwell * Edit, highly unlikely to get within 5 lengths of the Cunha horse

Cabeza De Llave 5.05 Wolves * Edit NR

Hover on the Wind/Irish Dancer 5.10 South

Perfect Judgment 5.30 Dundalk

Midnight Stagger/Waystar 6.00 Dun

Lapidarist/Family Values 6.40 Wolves

Land of the Giants / On The Cards 7.00 Dun

Zu Run 7.10 Wolves

Enpassant 7.20 South

Mighty Ruler 7.40 Wolves

Ring Fenced/Scammer 8.20 Southwell

 

[Danny]

Chaumi 200+ points is supposed to be annually not per fortnight.

 

[chaumi]

Forgot about Meydan. Two possibles:

• Don Vaccaro 3.25 Meydan
• Go Chrome Go 4.35

Three in France to keep an eye on:

• Zelica 1.10 Senonnes
• Martin 2.25 Senonnes
• Baltimore 4.35 Fontainebleu

Had some time to think a little more about Cheltenham...

Mon Creuset might give a run in the Triumph. I will probably try Fantasy World for an extra interest. Low stakes, of course, it's an impossible race.

Depending on how soft it's actually got, Sticktotheplan can go OK in the County. Pretty sure he needs it good, though. Hopefully will see from the 1st race whether it's anywhere near suitable. Tellherthename is out to 19 now, if she keeps going out we might end up with a bet.

Last bet of the Festival 2026 may well be Fiercely Proud, will need him well into the high 20s though. I suspect Roc Dino might upset Kel Histoire.

 

[chaumi]

I do love a County.

Sticktotheplan in the 40s nearly became the latest of an illustrious winners line - a run to be proud of. (the horse I mean, not Chaumi's County bets). The 4 places market wasn't worth it at around 7, so a -1.

Tellherthename in the mid 20s ran a race, too, coming from the back to finish midfield, but not all that far behind the first 4 suggesting the ability is still there. Might well have been a 'deliberate lose' run.

Went for Gibbs Island win at 90 and 17 first 4, too, and only heads or so away in 6th or 7th.

-4 on the race.

Prior to that, there were good enough runs from two in the Triumph, up there until running themselves out. -2

Whittled the Albert Bartlett down to four in the end, one of which was the winner at 22. Road Exile was the main hope, but didn't jump fluently enough and, in the end, one too many sticky jumps emptied him. +19 on the race.

Then the first Meydan runner got 4th at 8s without being anywhere near the win. +7

Grey Dawning was the only sensible (for me) bet at 20 for the Gold Cup. Seemed big enough, win or lose. Went for a Jukebox Man/Grey D rfc at 40. Envoi Allen, thank you for the memories. -2

Music Drive gave me a great run in the Hunters at 50, looking a potential winner two out and fighting hard for 3rd. Gracchus fought well enough for a long way. Golden Son was worth a bet in the mid 20s, and ran well till not having quite enough over the last two. -3

The other Meydan runner went down tamely. -1

The late afternoon French runner was high enough for a win bet. 4th or 5th, not sure. -1

Roc Dino (17) and Fiercely (24) were the final Festival runners. Neither good enough. -2

Southwell sprint, went for the Hover/Irish RFC, around 46 either way was fair enough. Inches in it, just lost out. -2

Midnight Stagger at Dundalk around 22 Awful run. -1

On The Cards 360 Land of the Giants 65 I'd say they ran well - well enough to try again next time. 7.00 Dundalk -2

Mighty Ruler 7.40 Wolves 46 -1

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-21 and +30 on the day


Running total for March now +294.38