Goodwood Day 1

Hamm

Hamm

At the Start
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I haven't gone through most of the races as yet, but Main Aim really stands out at 7/4. His closest rival on ratings and current prices, JJ the Jet Plane, is a sprinter who he beat at Newmarket earlier in the month. The extra distance should be beneficial only to Stoute's horse, and beyond de Kock's horse, there is Ouqba, who deserves respect, but won a below par (imho) Jersey Stakes, and Finjaan, who has been off for quite some time, and the fact Hills chooses Ouqba can't be a positive.

The Gordon Stakes doesn't look the strongest renewal, and Harbinger looks very short at 15/8.
 
You would have to think that the Gordon Stakes would be between Harbinger and Masterofthehorse. I'd imagine that the latter is bound to have been affected by his change of stable, so it would be difficult to oppose Harbinger.
 
I looked at the Befair Cup looking to oppose Main Aim as I feel Stoute's animals tend to be overbet, but he should win and stands out on form. I'd be happy to take 2s.
 
Some decent priced ones I fancy e/w:

2:10 Bravely Thought
4:35 Sugar Ray
5:10 Eastern Empire
 
EASTERN EMPIRE looks the good 'un for the 5.10 to me, too, for a nice e/w. I'm drawn to OUQBA over REGAL PARADE, but overall I'm looking for those with CD form and enjoyment of the same going. Attracted to LOWDOWN over RED BADGE in the 5.45, for what any of this is worth (35p, tops).

Weather forecast is for a change to strong showers coming in from the east for Wednesday, so perhaps by Thursday (more showers predicted) the ground will be easing a tad.
 
I prefer him to HARBINGER, too, although I'm concerned that that brilliant streak can't be sustained - and he has to get the trip, too. All good fun, though!
 
Harbinger and Firebet dominate the market far too much for my liking but that said, I can't find much to oppose them with. Masterofthehorse is arguably overpriced if you think he won't have regressed in the week or so he's been with Debbie Mountain.

I think Australia Day is a big price in the first at Goodwood, he's not got the best of draws but he's got some great form to his name and he's improved quite a bit this season. I'll be having a decent each-way bet at 12s anyway.

In the Betfair Cup, Main Aim is probably the right price but I'm not the horses biggest fan and I think Ouqba has been overlooked and he's more like a 3s shot than an 11/2 shot so he's worth a bit of money.

In the Molecomb, I'd be out to get Monsieur Chevallier, I was very taken with Totally Invincible last time out and everything went wrong for him and he still won. 16/1 looks big for a horse which should enjoy Goodwood.

In the 4.35, I am a big fan of Quai D'Orsay and whilst his draw and concerns over his bust spell taking it's toll worry me, he's no 12/1 shot with Richard Hills onboard as I can't think of a more ideal jockey for him.
 
Cliché of the day....

What price would Masterofthehorse be if he was still trained by O'Brien today?
 
Euronymous said:
I like Firebet a lot, but his trainer should be gearing towards the Cambridgeshire and not overfacing him here.
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He's rated 107 already, if he won or placed again in a handicap he would be certain of 10st in the Cambridgeshire. IMO he is better off stepping up in class.
 
Hamm said:
there is Ouqba, who deserves respect, but won a below par (imho) Jersey Stakes, and Finjaan, who has been off for quite some time, and the fact Hills chooses Ouqba can't be a positive.
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Probably not a positive for Ouqba!!! Twice Hills chosen him over Finjaan in direct match ups, and the score is 2-0 to Finjaan at the moment
 
Australia Day is the one bet for the Tuesday that I'm most taken by at the moment.

I too like Firebet in the Gordon, and am trying to work out if Finjaan will place in the Lennox.

If I'm reading things correctly, it would appear that the closing maiden sees Tregonning having his first 2yo runners of the season? Red Badge has twice fialed now with advantageous draws, and Lowdown is held through Human League by George Benjamin, who probably looks the best of those with form in the book. I can't decide whether Ilston Lord might be the sleeper in the pack, but inclination is to leave it alone, as my back analysis woudln't point to him being the winner.

Might just be a case of putting everything on Australia Day and if that fails so be it.
 
would really love finjaan to do well, but might be short of a run beforehand. main aim looks solid, but nearly too good to be true, and think or hope finjaan has touch of class as well.
 
Firebet is second top-rated behind Masterofthehorse on both Timeform and RP ratings. Hardly overfacing the horse is it.

In theory a more speed favouring track should suit Australia Day, but I think Sandown suits front runners more.
 
The figure suggests he's better than a handicapper!!! The forms working out, there's a nice pull at the weights with a few, his style of running should ensure he doesn't get into traffic trouble, and since they've been mucking about with the top rail, I don't think the draws quite the obstacle it used to be. I'd be no less confident about him e/w than others I've considered at shorter prices in the other races
 
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Warbler said:
Australia Day is the one bet for the Tuesday that I'm most taken by at the moment.
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Last August at Sandown Australia Day made all the running and faded in the final furlong off 91 whilst Lang Shining had to come around and pull 4 wide to overtake making his challenge off 98 whilst the winner Ask The Butler stormed from the rear to win.

Now Australia Day has a genuine style of running and anything that beats him as done this fairly, running today in the same class off a 6lb higher mark he faces the well supported Lang Shining only 1lb higher than that 2nd at Sandown.

My Selections

2.10 - Lang Shining
2.45 - Harbinger
3.25 - Quqba
4.00 - Monsieur Chevalier
4.35 - Yes Mister President
5.10 - Mister Dee Bee
5.45 - Red Badge
 
Goowood
The Final Furlong V TRF,
you know who I'm surporting.

I'm on the bench today so will watch with intrest, if I was betting today it would be a small bet of Harbinger.
 
davidjohnson said:
In theory a more speed favouring track should suit Australia Day, but I think Sandown suits front runners more.
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I tend to think it depends on the pace. If they go too fast it's often easy to come from off the pace.

There's also the theory that the shorter the straight the more it favours top weights but Goodwood has quite a generous straight.
 
Yes of course it depends on the pace, for some reason I don't think you get as many truly-run races around Sandown as some other round tracks, though to be fair, the race Australia Day ran in last time was run at a good gallop.

Anyone else think Monsieur Chevalier is pretty short today? By my reckoning he'll have to run about 2 secs quicker than he ever has before and I'm not sure that sort of emphasis on speed will be in his favour.
 
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