Goodwood Day 4

Hamm

Hamm

At the Start
Joined
Jan 24, 2008
Messages
12,548
Location
London
I like Laa Rayb for the Totesport mile. Runs off 103, 12 pounds lower than his recent best. Johnston horses flying, and for that reason I'll also back Lovelace, and both horses have won around here before.

I like Moran Gra (16.5 on Betfair) and Buzzword (13) in the Richmond; the Coventry form looks good after Xtension's win here yesterday, and his price seems all wrong. I think 13 is much too big for Buzzword, who won his maiden well after finishing second on his debut. I think the Gosden horse could well be overbet.
 
Last edited:
Buzzword was very impressive at Windsor and he's a big price. I also think Lucky Like is no 50/1 shot with the way that Deauville race is working out.
 
I really like the way the Arcano form is working out so it's Showcasing for me, the Gosden horses seem to be in form again after a quiet spell. Dick Turpin the biggest threat.

Illustrious Blue like the course and could go well at a decent price in the first and Ryan Moore is an interesting booking for the well drawn Harrison George in the sprint - the 11 & 10/1 for that was snapped up early.

A question of which of the Johnston battalion will take the 3.25 I reckon, if it doesn't get too soft I'd have a look at Lovelace.

Golden Stream would seem to have an obvious chance later on, I wouldn't oppose her.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I also think Lucky Like is no 50/1 shot with the way that Deauville race is working out.
Click to expand...

No argument from me

Being beaten by Mata Keranjang a shorthead and a head having been noted as having "missed the break, and last" doesnt look too bad in the context of events of this week already. Alright he was just touched off at Chantilly NTO by a short head having made all on soft, but that was the first try at 6F's and wasn't a particularly fast race. The jockey trainer combo is 2 from 9 for 2yo's and as you say, the price 40's+ is worth having a few shekels at
 
Hamm said:
I like Moran Gra (16.5 on Betfair) and Buzzword (13) in the Richmond; the Coventry form looks good after Xtension's win here yesterday, and his price seems all wrong. I think 13 is much too big for Buzzword, who won his maiden well after finishing second on his debut. I think the Gosden horse could well be overbet.
Click to expand...

Xtension won the Champagne Stakes true and beat Mata Keranjang by 1.25L's. Mata Kernajang beat Lucky Like about 0.25L at Deauville in a race that has subsequently worked out with the Gp2 Robert Papin falling to the second home, who beat a top French 2yo colt in Simoyui in the process. I wouldn't under-estimate the value of the Deauville form thus. Xtension would have a theoretical beating of Lucky Like by about 1.5L's on that line, and Lucky Like missed the the break don't forget. In the Coventry, Xtension beat Moran Gra by further (2.25L's), which would give Lucky Like about a 0.75L advantage at three times the price.
 
Last edited:
I can't believe Age of Reason is 19.5 on Betfair for the first, especially compared to the price of his stablemate (4.5). He clearly ran no
sort of race last time out, and his previous close second to Quijano would put him in with a favourite's chance. Drumfire is the main danger.
 
Last edited:
Don't really like Halicarnassus, but Goodwood suits him better than most tracks it seems. What price would Mad Rush or Tranquil Tiger be in this even with their penalties?, and Halicarnassus has given these 2 a bit to think about here earlier in the season. 25's is a bit too big I feel considering some are going 1/4 odds the place too.
 
Goodwood Friday

2.10 – This Group 3 is so tight it could easily be a handicap. If Drumfire is over Tuesday’s exertions, he could easily follow up here. Certainly the form lines suggest he put up a Group performance the other day.
Click to expand...
Drumfire lost more ground than he was beaten by when squeezed out about 2f from home. Did really well to close up again.
 
Good call DJ.

Yes, DO, well spotted, though i think Illustrious Blue would have won regardless - lovely attitude, and kept going from a long way back.

Melbourne Cup apparently on the agenda now for Warringah.
 
Great shout on Laa Rayb, Hamm. It was a bit of an 'upside down' race.

History says it isn’t impossible to overcome a low draw in this race but it isn’t far off it. In the last few seasons finding the winner of this race has been pretty straightforward as the best handicapped horses have had favourable draws. This year looks different. However, much as I like Lovelace, Laa Rayb and Dubai’s touch, I have to overlook them here and focus on the draw. The table sets out the top half in order of ratings, then the same with the low half. Spectait has to be backed. He’s won the race before (2006 from the same draw) and is 1lb lower today. Webbow wouldn’t normally be my idea of a winner of a race of this type but he’s up there with a shout on account of his draw.
Click to expand...

Spectait and Webbow, with great draws, have ended up challenging widest. On top of that, Webbow was checked 1½f out, otherwise would have finished second. Laa Rayb, Docofthebay (soooo glad it didn't win) and Lovelace, from bad draws, have ended up coming up the favoured rail.

My luck is just awful this week. I was on Harrison George in the previous race.
 
Cheers lads. Great ride, and he seemed back to last year's form.

You do wonder though what Johnston has being doing with him this year!
 
Excellent work. Couldn't have it from that draw but great ride from Fortune who got him the best position he could have wished for. Lovelace shaped just as well really but without getting the breaks.

Think the horse has been getting himself beat this year, blinkers looked a big help.
 
Unlucky with Lucky Like; just missed out on a place by Buzzword eating up half the track in the last furlong after seeming massively outpaced. Champagne Stakes could be a race for him.
 
Hamm said:
Unlucky with Lucky Like; just missed out on a place by Buzzword eating up half the track in the last furlong after seeming massively outpaced. Champagne Stakes could be a race for him.
Click to expand...

All the best e/w bets finish there :D
 
Steve T said:
I really like the way the Arcano form is working out so it's Showcasing for me, the Gosden horses seem to be in form again after a quiet spell. Dick Turpin the biggest threat.

Illustrious Blue like the course and could go well at a decent price in the first and Ryan Moore is an interesting booking for the well drawn Harrison George in the sprint - the 11 & 10/1 for that was snapped up early.

A question of which of the Johnston battalion will take the 3.25 I reckon, if it doesn't get too soft I'd have a look at Lovelace.

Golden Stream would seem to have an obvious chance later on, I wouldn't oppose her.
Click to expand...

Frustrating that we never saw Showcasing but with Illustrious Blue winning, a 33/1 shot from the Johnston masses winning the sprint and Dick Turpin an obvious selection when the danger was a NR, a pretty damn great day! Shame Harrison George missed out.
 
Well done Hamm fantastic, Isiris tipped it up today and Mark Johnston was on aswell.
 
The Best 2yo in the nursery (which I am not about to attempt to spell) ran an eye-catching race having hit a lot of trouble in running trying to come up on the rail.
 
Back
Top