Race 1
2.15
Bank of Scotland Investment Service Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
(Class 2) (4yo+)
£31,155.00
1m1f192y
A competitive and strongly contested opening handicap of the week and several of these have shown solid form in the past.
Championship Point won this race off a 1lb lower mark last season and whilst he has been highly tried since he did manage a couple of decent success’ this season including when he beat Maraahel at Chester. Not in love with the ground at York he was disappointing, but this fast surface is likely to count against him.
Emirates Skyline is another who has been in good form this season and he won with a bit in hand when beating Ladies Best at Epsom. Disappointing on his next start and the Epsom form has been since let down. Off a high enough mark at present and looks up against it.
Mr Aviator was one who did disappoint in that race behind Emirates Skyline but the drop in trip to a mile done the trick when coming home to good effect to win the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. 5lb higher he does stay this far and handles the ground, so plenty to like about him. 2nd over 10f here last year he is also a winner over 9f and shouldn’t be discounted easily.
Eradicate has form on fast ground but on the past couple of occasions he has appeared to be better suited with cut in the ground. He came off the pace last time but is usually a front runner. This trip doesn’t quite serve him as well as 12f and 4lb rise for his York effort has not made things easy.
Illustrious Blue seems to have lost his way of late and last time when tried in headgear he couldn’t get going soon enough plugging on when the race was over. Seems to always run his race here and mark gradually slipping so no surprise if he were to be running on into the frame late on.
Pinpoint is one of those inconsistent horses I couldn’t ever back and whilst his 3rd at Ascot reads well, he was bitterly disappointing last time. Better with ease in the ground I think he will struggle here.
This is probably the best sort of course and trip for Don’t Panic but the best of his form like most of his stallions offspring has come when there is cut in the ground. 13lb higher than when he dotted up at Doncaster he looks up against it on this fast surface.
Watamu won here off 78 a few years back but now off 104 we have seen his best form come on the all weather. He was disappointing last time out and still looks a little high in the weights.
Escape Route is a bit of a Jeckel and Hyde in that he doesn’t always give his best but on song he is a talented horse. He used to give trouble in the stalls but he now seems to like to track the pace in small fields and nick races halfway. This bigger field is probably not ideal and is best watched.
Monte Alto has been given a chance by the handicapper dropped a lb for hating the ground at York last time and at Ascot the pace was a bit stop start for him. He was 3rd in the Zetland off this mark and he continues to work well at home. He needs a flat out gallop in his races and if he gets it here, he may just go close.
Levera who has been outclassed in better company lately is 5lb higher for being well beaten in group contests and looks out of his depth here.
Gulf Express is quirky but he improved in the headgear last time and probably should have been a great deal closer. He was given a very confident ride by Ryan Moore and the bird had flown by the time he got into top gear, only 2lb higher he has to be respected and has each way claims.
Proponent figures really well for me and I strongly feel he’ll be thereabouts. He was unsuited by 12f last time not getting the trip and was impressive winning at Newmarket earlier in the season. Best on decent ground he looks the improving type and this could put him spot on for something like the Cambridgeshire. He looks solid to me and I rate him a leading player.
Humongous was impressive on Sunday at Ascot but despite winning by going away at Ascot I got the impression he would be suited by slightly further. Granted that they will go a quick gallop here but he met trouble at Newbury and I feel the same could happen here. A 6lb penalty as well to shoulder won’t be ideal and he may have to settle for a minor role.
Kinsya showed nothing on his seasonal reappearance and can be readily passed over at this level on that level of form.
Luberon is undoubtedly very tough, as he showed with a fine front running 3rd at Ascot on Saturday but he may not get it easy here and the faster track and shorter trip will also not see him get many of these in trouble with his turn of foot. He is clearly well treated off his current mark of 93 but he may struggle here having had such a hard race only 2 days earlier.
Minkowski 4th in last season’s Ebor is very interesting on his debut for Jeremy Noseda and he rates very well for me, however he clearly needs in excess of 10f and this is surely just being used as a pipe opener for the Ebor. He goes on this ground and is very well handicapped but I would expect him to just be staying on through beaten horses over this trip.
Caravel was a huge improver for the Prescott team last season and his return at Sandown was pleasing where he blew up in the closing stages. He will be better for that effort and his work at home with Soft Morning and Wicked daze has been franked in no uncertain terms last weekend. He looks the type to be suited by this easy ten furlongs and on ground he loves he looks a big player before being a serious player in the Cambridgeshire.
Summary
A cracking handicap to start the meeting as always and a very open one at that. Course winners Championship Point Mr Aviator are two consistent types who you can expect to run there races but they look a little high in the weights.
Minkowski will give some Ebor clues in this but its Cambridgeshire clues that should really be on show. Monte Alto, Gulf Express, Proponent, Humongous and Caravel are the five that really stand out and I think I can narrow that down to three.
Monte Alto is a horse that will win a big race sooner or later, he is well handicapped and just needs a race run to suit. A strong pace to come off and a decent open space finish is what he needs and he should get it here. Overnight rain may help his cause and I expect him there abouts.
Caravel is another you can’t dismiss and he clearly blew up at Sandown which was a much stiffer task than this. Home work clearly shows him in great fomr and he looks the solid each way sort.
However I think PROPONENT is the stand out each ay bet here and having won over the Cambridgeshire trip at Newmarket he looked very well handicapped at Ascot but appeared to hit a brick wall in the final furlong. Left off the same mark to me he is still ahead of the grader and this will evidently prove his best trip. Any rain that comes wont bother him, as he showed he can handle slower surfaces at Newbury in the Spring Mile and I would be confident of him going close today. I will save on Monte Alto, Caravel and Mr Aviator.
Selection: PROPONENT (8/10) E/W
Savers: Monte Alto, Caravel & Mr Aviator (E/W)
Race 3:
3.30
Betfair Cup (Registered As The Lennox Stakes) (Group 2)
(Class 1) (3yo+)
£87,993.50
7f
1(9) Arabian Gleam
516-58
4 9-6 J Noseda J Murtagh
Ran a big race over a trip a bit too far for him at Ascot last time and has been catching the eye working nicely of late. Always the sort to look a natural 7f horse and the overnight rain could really suit him. One of those who often finds trouble in running but if getting a clear run he could be very interesting in the place market.
2(8) Al Qasi
20-282
5 9-2 P W Chapple-Hyam Ted Durcan
Hard to know what trip he needs nowadays and was done by tactics in a slowly run 7f event at the Curragh last time out. A stiff 7f would look ideal but on fast ground you would have to fear he wont be quick enough.
3(5) Dunelight
29-271
5 9-2v C G Cox Philip Robinson
Bold front running campaigner who done terrifically when winning at Windsor over a mile last time out. Has a good record here and given there isn’t many front runners in the line up he could get an easy time of it. Yard not totally firing at present which would have to be a worry but if given an easy time out in front on ground he loves he could run well at big odds.
4(2) King Of Dixie
-11312
4 9-2 W J Knight Seb Sanders
Improved effort when 2nd to Racer Forever last time out and likely he could turn that form around given the later is surely Infallible’s pace maker, as he is at home. Improving sort who handles conditions and could have each way claims.
5(3) Racer Forever
626017
5 9-2b J H M Gosden Jimmy Fortune
Good winner at Newmarket on his penultimate start but failed to make all in the Bunbury Cup last time out. Likeable sort at listed level but has been no match for Infallible in recent work at home and you would have to suspect he is here to ensure Dunelight goes a good one out in front.
6(6) Il Warrd
16-102
3 8-9 Saeed Bin Suroor L Dettori
No match for the classy Aqlaam in the Jersey Stakes but stayed on nicely in 2nd on that occasion. Looks a natural 7f horse and form over 7f is rock solid. Likely to give a good account of himself but a bit to find with the likes of Infallible and may be playing for places.
7(1) Paco Boy
11-117
3 8-9 R Hannon Richard Hughes
Good winner of the Greenham when there was cut in the ground at Newbury and didn’t get the best of passages in the French Guineas when a not beaten too far 7th. Reported to have shown improved form of late at home and the yard do go very well here so would be dangerous to rule out if alot of the overnight forecasted rain got into the ground.
8(4) Stimulation
2-1724
3 8-9 H Morrison Steve Drowne
Game sort who got up right on the line to win the Free Handicap. Not good enough in the Guineas he has run two sound races since but this sharp 7f will count against him. Plenty to find with Il Warrd on their Ascot meeting and likely to struggle here.
9(7) Infallible
1-1422
3 8-6 J H M Gosden Ryan Moore
The star horse in the race who has shown a solid level of form in Group 1 contests since winning the Nell Gwyn. The mile just stretches her stamina and the drop to 7f is exactly what she needs. Yard is in good form at present and she is a mile clear on figures for me. Getting plenty of weight here she has everything going for her and the overnight rain can only enhance her claims.
Summary
A decent renewal on the cards here and Racer Forever and Dunelight should ensure that this is run at a decent gallop.
Of the elders Arabian Gleam sets the standard but giving lumps of weight away will not make his life easier. King Of Dixie is one who looks a solid improver and he shouldn’t be written off granted a strong pace here but its hard to get away from the 3yo’s receiving lots of weight.
Paco Boy has each way claims here and I think the forecasted rain will suit him. He has had a long break since a messy run in the French Guineas and he is a bit of an unknown quantity. Il Warrd is another who proved his classic running all wrong when 2nd in Jersey and looked a natural 7f performer.
Both of these have solid ew claims but for me its near impossible to oppose INFALLIBLE whose 4th in the Guineas, 2nd in the Coronation and 2nd in the Falmouth is head and shoulders the best form on offer. Her last try over this trip saw her blast home one of the easiest Nell Gwyn winners we have ever witnessed and she looks different class to her opposition. Receiving lumps of weight she is impossible to oppose and is my best bet of the day.
Selection: INFALLIBLE (10/10)
Savers: Il Warrd & Paco Boy (E/W)
Good Luck
Chris
