Guineas

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 6, 2005
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No real thoughts on the 1000 as yet though like Senga a lot (she was the one to take out of the Boussac) but she probably goes for the Pouliches.

In the 2000 I like the Fabre horse and have him at 8s. Looks a good renewal at this stage with the Craven and Greenham winners looking better than average but feel Barney Roy won't like a fast surface at Newmarket, he hits the ground hard. Dream Castle the horse to take out of that race. Fear Churchill naturally but he's short.
 
Hard to fear Churchill. We just won't know the real vibes until the day but right now he is short based on 2016. I absolutely love the Fabre horse and am hoping to see someone stupid enough to go 5/1. I'm also on e/w at 8/1.
 
The interesting thing about the vibes was they weren't there for Gleneagles and he went off 3s. However he won a terrible renewal, this is much better.
 
Euronymous said:
The interesting thing about the vibes was they weren't there for Gleneagles and he went off 3s. However he won a terrible renewal, this is much better.
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Purely on ratings Churchill would eat this lot but the market vibes tell me all is not well. I've heard one prominent bookmsker hasn't laid a significant bet on Churchill in 2017.
 
I'll need to trawl through my accounts but I'm sure I took Caravaggio and Fair Eva last summer for their respective Guineas. I might even have them in a double.
 
Churchill's price is certainly looking on the short side now given that credible Two Thousand candidates have emerged from both of this week's trials as well as from the Djebel.

I'm no judge of a horse's action and so I've no idea if Barney Roy will act at Newmarket but my approach is always to assume he will until proven otherwise and he looked very impressive to me yesterday. You could quibble that Dream Castle was visibly keen in the early stages and so didn't quite last home but the distance back to the third is significant and Zainhom is a pretty sound yardstick, for me. The time was good as well. It's quite difficult to come up with an exact figure as none of the other races over the straight course yesterday were truly-run but it's almost certainly in the low-120s, similar to the 121 Eminent recorded the other day. Given that the first furlong looked steady, that's very good.
 
gus said:


I'm no judge of a horse's action and so I've no idea if Barney Roy will act at Newmarket but my approach is always to assume he will until proven otherwise
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You don't have to be any sort of judge, it's plain to see he hits the ground quite hard. So it's whether you want to take a chance on that and I would say his price is therefore tight enough.
 
Euronymous said:
You don't have to be any sort of judge, it's plain to see he hits the ground quite hard.
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Be fair to yourself, Euronymous. You have to be a judge of some sort to discern if a horse hits the ground hard.

I'm not sure I could see that for myself.
 
Barney Roy, to my eye, looked to have plenty of scope for improvement.

Think yesterday's race and the Craven gives us plenty to think about. Looking forward to reading Simon Rowlands sectional analysis.
 
I liked the look of both of the Godolphin horses - Dream Castle could have done better with a bit more cover, which he's likely to get at HQ. The way he shot clear 2f out was visually impressive and if held onto a bit longer he could reverse the placings. That said, Barney Roy did it well and I think they are both very likeable sorts to win races this season.
 
I presume you mean he's a win or flop proposition rather than an each way bet, which I'd agree with.
 
Grey said:
I presume you mean he's a win or flop proposition rather than an each way bet, which I'd agree with.
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Yes. He either runs to his rating or he doesn't. I couldn't make a case for betting him e/w.
 
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12 left in at the 5 day stage. carravagio missing as expected.

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Disappointing turnout this year
Wonder if Frankie rides AW, he hasn't been present on French based al shaqab horses for a while now.
 
fonz said:
Disappointing turnout this year
Wonder if Frankie rides AW, he hasn't been present on French based al shaqab horses for a while now.
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Frankie rides UK based Al Shaqab runners.
Gregory Benoist has the contract for the French ones.
 
We're in agreement Euro, it looks an intriguing race I'd just rather see more than 11/12 horses contest the first classic of the season.
 
18 runners in a Guineas often means they split into two groups like a shite handicap. Rather have ten runners and the best 3yo miler wins.
 
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