Guineas

The lads aren't daft
That run reminded me of Dawn Approach's Guineas, searing pace to aim at - yes
Further - absolutely not
 
Problem is that the word is that Capri is their Derby horse. If that wins tomorrow then he's got be a big price to run.
 
Marble said:
Is sweating before a race a psychological thing, or a physical thing, or both? Can a horse sweat if it knows or senses its about to race? If not then the sweating must be down to cantering to the start?
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It's do with the timing of the splenic contraction horses can do to increase their blood volume and thus o2 capacity. In a relaxed horse it takes more adrenalin to occur than in a nervy type. So it may be that sweating to him indicates they're at the "correct" stress level.
 
LUKE said:
Wouldnt be 100% certain that Capri will be best of the Ballydoyle horses tomorrow.
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Yeah that's always the case but that was the buzz midweek. Of course if that race goes tits up tomorrow then the Derby route for Churchill becomes a lucrative punt. Dawn Approach most recently has shown that it doesn't have to hinder a milers career.
 
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I'm happy enough to accept that Churchill will comfortably stay the Derby trip. As AOB said today, not many Galileos don't stay.
 
Rip Van Winkle didn't stay. Intello ran out of gas in the last couple of furlongs in the Arc. The Gurkha didn't even stay 10f. And of course Gleneagles (also out of a Storm Cat mare) was never asked. That's 4 of his top 20 best horses - which also include Frankel and Teofilo who would have been unlikely stayers also. I would also argue Cape Blanco didn't properly stay. AOB is a great trainer obviously, but you can't listen to him.
 
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On the RP website the average winning distance of Galileo produce is 11.2f. which suggests that quite a few of them didn't win over 12f.

You would think 10f. would be fine but 12f. might be a step too far.
 
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I reckon you'd probably find that with just about all the top stayers' sires, though, Colin.

It's something I notice when doing my figures for jumps races. Lots of 3-milers' sires have AWDs of less than 12f.

I'm one of the forum saddos who still believe in the dosage system and Churchill has a negative DI. He might be a Hawk Wing type: would have won his Derby impressively if High Chaparral hadn't been there. Maybe there isn't a High Chaparral this year.
 
Euronymous said:
Rip Van Winkle didn't stay. Intello ran out of gas in the last couple of furlongs in the Arc. The Gurkha didn't even stay 10f. And of course Gleneagles (also out of a Storm Cat mare) was never asked. That's 4 of his top 20 best horses - which also include Frankel and Teofilo who would have been unlikely stayers also. I would also argue Cape Blanco didn't properly stay. AOB is a great trainer obviously, but you can't listen to him.
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Totally agree. Churchill is a highly likely non-stayer and my approach to the Derby will reflect this.
 
Colin Phillips said:
On the RP website the average winning distance of Galileo produce is 11.2f. which suggests that quite a few of them didn't win over 12f.

You would think 10f. would be fine but 12f. might be a step too far.
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If the average winning distance stat includes 2yo runs then 11.2f is a high figure?

And presumably it refers to flat only?
 
Just my take, but generally horses don't mature until 4yo+ so most won't run over ataying trips until they're that sort of age, and averages wouldn't give the full picture
 
Wayne Lordan done himself a big favour there. He bounced that out and had her in the perfect position if she was good enough. This is the start of a longterm relationship between the two.
 
Douglas MacArthur, Yulcatan and Capri finish in a line. That's got to increase Churchill's chances of going for the Derby somewhat.
 
In terms of training horses, when do you reaistically have to decide if Churchill is going for the Derby? It's not like Willie Mullins at Cheltenham where switching races is not that big of a deal but a miler and a Derby horse have to be trained differently. While they may not announce it, surely Aidan O'Brien and the lads would have to make a decision fairly quickly.
 
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