Haldon Gold Cup

EC1

EC1

On a break
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looks a reasonably competitive race

i have a query over Dodging Bullets after a break..ok against gimme's..but not so good when oppo bites

Garde La Victoire looks to me to under perfom on ground like this.

these are first two in betting..must be some value here if these two are discarded
 
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am struggling with this..presenting arms.. doesn't seem to show best on stiff tracks in any consistent way..Pain o chocolate seems to struggle when racing for this sort of prize.,ticks in other boxes,sir Valentino..poorish when racing for this sort of £..but has ticks in other boxes

so many negatives..probably something will win by default

i might just dutch Pain O Chocolate + Sir Valentino..who both only really fail on £ ...but.. either may improve to defy that

any views on this decent race on a November tuesday?
 
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I had a look at the race earlier, and it's not very appealing as a betting heat.

GLV is the one I'd back if a gun was put to my head, but it would be with minimum confidence, given the trouble he has had staying upright in his last couple of chases. It's as moderate a renewal as I can recall for some time.
 
compeitive though?..what difference does moderate make really?..i never really thought..i backed the winner of that..but the £ earned backing it was demeaned a bit because the top weight was only 150

i must live in a different world it appears
 
you know..when you read the responses on this thread..there is no wonder very few newcomers would ever start a thread

talk about waste of time and what a load of glass half emptiers there are on this forum

depressing read really

i'm fookin amazed anyone new ever reads the board..ffs lads..deeply boring and depressing really..is this your best work?..really?

fook me if it is
 
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Grasshopper said:
I had a look at the race earlier, and it's not very appealing as a betting heat.

GLV is the one I'd back if a gun was put to my head, but it would be with minimum confidence, given the trouble he has had staying upright in his last couple of chases. It's as moderate a renewal as I can recall for some time.
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Ive taken Dodging Bullets at 4s....its a poor renewal and GLV doesnt inspire confidence over the fences.
 
EC1 said:
you know..when you read the responses on this thread..there is no wonder very few newcomers would ever start a thread

talk about waste of time and what a load of glass half emptiers there are on this forum

depressing read really

i'm fookin amazed anyone new ever reads the board..ffs lads..deeply boring and depressing really..is this your best work?..really?

fook me if it is
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What's slightly depressing is being berated simply for not having a strong opinion on a given race.

If it's competitive you want, why are you playing in an 8-runner handicap with a 7/4 jolly, instead of the 14-runner handicap that closes the card, where it's 9/2 the field?

The reason you picked the Haldon out for a thread, is because it's the best race on tomorrow. Except it's not really - not in a historical sense, at least. It's got two from eight out of the weights, three exposed handicappers with poor strike-rates, two less exposed horses who fell last time out over fences, and a former champion whose powers appear to be on the wane.

You bet if you want to. It holds little interest for me, and if that makes me personally culpable for people not posting, then they are self-evidently too timid to be putting their opinions forwards in the first place.

In the absence of a gun, I'd probably be inclined to switch to Digger's selection at 4/1. You might have needed a telescope to find him behind Sacre last spring, but a high-150's performance will likely be enough to take this down, and he seems most likely to run to that sort of mark.

I hope this makes you happy.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Quite the opposite to me.
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I'm aware that you sometimes prefer not to share your thought-processes, DO, when it comes to how you view a race; preferring instead to do this offline from the forum - which is absolutely fine by me.

I am, however, slightly surprised that you have not felt the lash of EC1's tongue, for it.

Maybe he forgives some sins, more easily than he does others.
 
Grasshopper said:
I'm aware that you sometimes prefer not to share your thought-processes, DO, when it comes to how you view a race; preferring instead to do this offline from the forum - which is absolutely fine by me.

I am, however, slightly surprised that you have not felt the lash of EC1's tongue, for it.

Maybe he forgives some sins, more easily than he does others.
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EC1 and I have disagreed often enough on here to have a good idea of - and no lack of respect for - how we each other think. I really don't think EC1 needs me to put up my every thought as and when I have one.

I always intended to back up my earlier post at some point (once I was satisfied that I had no further interest in the betting) but I'm always wary of the lurkers waiting to indulge in their feverish obloquy.

From a purely logical point of view, though, I'm not entirely happy to put up my thoughts without also putting up my table of ratings so that people can in fact see exactly why I think as I do regardless of the accuracy of the figures themselves (which I know plenty of people disagree with). If it were possible for me to post them with a single click or two I'd do so but I'm not a technophile so basically can't be arsed jumping through hoops for people just to nitpick at them.

In the meantime, though, these are my thoughts but they would probably mean more with figures to refer to.
This should be an interesting wee race, probably better than in recent seasons. Dodging Bullets was miles below his best in three runs last season and they were talking about stepping him up in trip. I wouldn’t be surprised if they had the Mackeson or Massey-Fergusson in mind form now that he’s coming down the weights. I’m surprised to see him as short as 100/30 second-favourite for this. I wouldn’t take 10/1. Garde La Victoire is clear favourite around the 2/1 mark and I’m happy to let him go at that price. It seems to factor in second-season improvement already and he can be expected to leave his best hurdles OR of 154 behind sooner rather than later but there is another second-season chasers here of more interest.

Pain Au Chocolat is a second-season chaser who may be entitled to improve at least as much as Garde La Victoire and he gets the vote as the main bet but I do have some concerns about whether the ground might be too fast for him. He looked a very decent hurdler more than once last season and beat Aso in a novice chase as a 4yo. Aso got an RPR of 153 for beating Ballyalton, who won the big novice handicap at the Festival a couple of runs later, next time out so the form is stacking up even before taking into account normal second-season improvement. The ‘++’ in his rating isn’t meant to reflect that. It’s to reflect the ease with which Pain Au Chocolat won his next race.

Dresden is arguably the best-handicapped runner. He was beaten less than ten lengths in the ultra-hot Grand Annual but had been hampered early before staying on late in the day. He’s back on the same mark as when a clear-cut winner of a more valuable race over this kind of trip at Ascot in November. I presume he’s the Pricewise pick as he has gone blue across the board this evening.

Sir Valentino is the other interesting one. He’s disappointed a couple of times since hacking up in a decent race over further off a lengthy break but might struggle to beat the others.


Bets

1 pt win Pain au Chocolat 13/2
½ pt win Dresden 14/1
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Dresden is the only one to have won a handicap chase off his current mark. He won twice in November last year and seems a decent ew bet if it remains the dead eight.
 
How clever was I, stealing the 13/2 yesterday evening (which was the best price at the time!) only for 17/2 to be available now.

(I thought I'd be out most of the morning from early so felt obliged to act.)
 
you weren't being "berated" for not having having a strong view Grass

my issue was one of deja Vu actually..read this thread page 1

http://www.talkinghorses.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?20484-CASPIAN-CAVIAR-GOLD-CUP-13-December

virtually identical re your response and Euro's..uncanny really...a race thread started by myself..that is deemed to be not be worth a thread if you read between the lines.

Now..bearing in mind..i don't start loads of race threads.. it seems rather a coincidence that i get a similar response from same two people...yes it will be a coincidence

its bugger all to do with anyone posting or not posting a view..its about the same old same old negative responses from the same people...and it looks like that attitude is displayed..only when i start a race thread...it even crossed my mind when starting this thread that a repeat was on the cards..because i do have a decent memory for a crumbly..and that thread is still in the memory bank..it p1ssed me off in same way as when i posted the "berating" ...as you put it..post

i wonder if people can see why i drew the comparisons

i get a bit bored with..ooh top weight is only this...oooh its a poor renewal,,,I'm sorry about that..but if thats what i think..i'll say so..I am allowed to aren't I?

I wasn't aware that before a thread about a race was started we had to have a race standardisation test to see if its worthy of discussion..i must have missed that rule

What i tend to do though..if i look at a thread..and it has no interest to me..rather than stamp some depressing comments all over it..i read a different thread instead..works for me

No its not the Betfair Hurdle..but its an interesting race..and its not long ago..there would have been a prize given to anyone who actually took the time to post a thread on here..it were like teh Marie Celeste on here

so maybe it might be worth you being pleased about a thread being started..because it would only take about 5 people to stop posting on here..and all you will be left with is one liner posts every now and then
 
Garde La Victoire was a simple decision for me.

Is there a greater than 70% chance he falls ?. No IMO, in which case he wins so the 9/4 365 offered from 8:30 was value.
 
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