Haldon Gold Cup

I'm not writing off his chance with Forest Bihan, archie, but I find a lot of Ellison's are over-bet, and don't run up to their odds, imo. He also seems to think every horse in his yard is a world-beater waiting to happen.

Politlogue is rock-solid, but 9/4 is narrow enough, and - regardless of what Nicholls thinks - I don't reckon he is a 2-miler.

I'll be having a pop at Garde La Victoire at 9/2.
 
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Garde La Victoire for me.

Despite his arguable failure to fulfill early promise his 2m chase form actually reads well with the only really disappointing run coming in the Champion Chase, when a shuddering mistake at the top of the hill put paid to any chance. He didn't look entirely comfortable up until that point with the pace set by Special Tiara but I'm prepared to forgive him that and with the rain forecast today they surely won't get as fast, despite the presence of Ar Mad in the line-up.

The negative is his sometimes iffy jumping but at 5/1 I'm prepared to take the chance.
 
Big Ar Mad fan but he's coming off an injury and always ran poor on his first run, even though he finished 3 lengths last year in the Tingle the race for him was over much earlier. Can't have him unfortunately. Gino Trail makes more appeal at the weights and can deny the late comers if he'll be making the pace alongside AM.
 
Anywhere near his best Ar Mad takes this. Also lime the look of Forest Bihan e/w.

My bet is Ar Mad on the nose.
Forest Bihan E/W.
The above 2 in a reverse forecast.
 
Even at his best is Ar Mad really that far clear of the others ?

His form is from nearly two years ago in the Henry VIII and Wayward Lad but in the former he beat Bristol De Mail 10L conceding 6lb. Garde La Victoire beat the same horse eased down by 7L a month earlier, conceding 9lb.

Later that month he gave 2lb and a neck beating to Vaniteaux, who's very good but no world beater. His only win since came in a Plumpton egg and spoon race .

He posted a decent effort on his comeback in last year's Tingle Creek when it was clear the bad mistakes took their toll, but how do we know that wasn't a result of the injury and won't happen again.

I'm fond of the horse and he's obviously been unlucky with injury but as much as I'd like to see him do so, I can't have him winning this off 162.
 
Won well...entitled to get tired near the end.

Amazed at those on here nwho fancied AR Mad..they simply couldn't have read what the jockey said beforehand
 
He is apparently being aimed at the Tingle Creek.

You can imagine how happy I am about that.

Fu*ckers. :mad:
 
Maybe some issues with the going stick reading today or was it five years ago ? :ninja:

Today's CHASE going stick reading at Exeter (5.1) is lowest since 11/10/12. (4.9). That day= Heavy. Today= Good to Soft, Soft in places and then Soft after Race 3 ( the Haldon Gold Cup) according to Jim McGrath.
 
Tanlic said:
Won well...entitled to get tired near the end.

Amazed at those on here nwho fancied AR Mad..they simply couldn't have read what the jockey said beforehand
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And what was that? Where?


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Moore said: "I've been riding out and schooling for a while and I'm looking forward to getting back. Ar Mad is in good form. He obviously hasn't run since the Tingle Creek last year so we'll see how he goes. This is a starting point as much as anything.

"We just want to get a run into him as although he ran very well in the Tingle Creek, he was very gassy for a lot of the race"

No way I could back him after reading that
 
Just watched the race. Weird. So many good horses beaten early.

I went out early this morning and only just got back home but it looks like Ar Mad was weak in the market and it looked like they tried new tactics that didn't work. Or maybe he simply wasn't off an inch.

My own take of his form is that he could/should have won the Tingle Creek and I reckoned if Un De Sceaux turned up in this race off 162 he'd have been odds-on. That's why I liked the bet. It didn't work out that way but that's the way it happens sometimes.
 
I hope he stays in good health and his trainer drops the stupid conviction that he's only good right-handed. He's sure to improve after this. The ground was pretty much dead and only the Nicholls horses acted on it, but clearly the winner was very good.
 
Tanlic said:
Explain?

U may not like but it looks like a sensible decision, He's won the race more times that you've had your end away :lol:
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1. Going to the Tingle Creek means he meets Altior = he’ll be hammered.
2. I have had a series of bets on him for the BVGC
3. Still not convinced he is a two-miler, and if he is, he’s a stone or more behind Altior, so what is the fu*cking point, especially when you take 2. above into account.
4. It is a personal affront
 
Grasshopper said:
1. Going to the Tingle Creek means he meets Altior = he’ll be hammered.
2. I have had a series of bets on him for the BVGC
3. Still not convinced he is a two-miler, and if he is, he’s a stone or more behind Altior, so what is the fu*cking point, especially when you take 2. above into account.
4. It is a personal affront
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What would you say his distance should be? I agree in terms of getting hammered by Altior. Just not sure he'd get 3?
 
The consistency of good 2 milers winning the Tingle Creek is something to behold

Moscow Flyer Kauto Star Twist Magic Sizing Europe Master Mind Un Des Sceaux, Sire De Grugy and of course Sprinter Scary all went off at as fav and won.

Then along came PN with what many regarded as a virtual no hoper, The inconsistent Dodging Bullets and smashes the mould to smithereens.

Now he has a horse who may just be the type that Altior wont like being taken on by.....My bet is PN's plan is to get into a jumping contest with him before the railway fences and see what he's really made of....I'll be having a shilling or 2 on just incase he pulls it off
 
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Altior will will be quite happy to take a tow in the Tingle Creek, and has nothing whatsoever to fear if there is a 'jumping contest' either - he is bomb-proof in UK 2m chases, imo.

DoubleJ, right or wrong, I have Politologue down as a classic intermediate-distance horse - a 'Ryanair Type' if you like. Clearly he is fully effective over 2m when he gets it Soft (no dispute from me there, as it was undoubtedly a decent performance yesterday) but he grinds it out over the minimum-trip. He has never shown the boot required, to be considered a top-end, genuine 2-miler.......not for me, at any rate.

On breeding, Poliglote has stacks of winners at all kinds of trips, so not much to be gleaned from that. He has sired both Spirit Son and Don Poli, who are about as chalk-and-cheese in terms of stamina demands, as they come.

I can see Nicholls mixing it up as the season unfolds. Run him over 2m in the deepest of the winter ground, and up him in trip to around 2m4f in the Spring. I figure his best shot at a G1 with Politologue this season, is probably the Melling Chase.
 
It's very much a case of take him on early and hope he's not 100%......... the fitness advantage very often turns up strange results.

Even if he won the Tingle Creek with him it would be no guarantee he wouldn't step up to 2m4 plus again
 
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