Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup

Was it though? I remember seeing Nick Dundee win in Cork. Know wish he'd been retired.
 
Invictus has badly broken down for a second time.

The seven-year-old had been off the track for 21 months after suffering an injury when beating subsequent RSA Chase and Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth in the Reynoldstown Chase in February 2012.

Nursed back to full health by the Barbury Castle team, he was strongly fancied for the Hennessy Gold Cup on Saturday, for which he looked favourably handicapped, and ran a big race until a lack of a recent run told and he faded in the home straight.

However, Invictus finished the race slightly lame and it has since transpired the injury is much worse than first feared.

"He's broken down again in the Hennessy," said King.

"It's the same leg but a different place and it's not looking good.

"It's a great shame. He'd run a huge race in the circumstances and now this happens.

"The owners had shown so much patience and my staff had worked ever so hard in getting back to fitness.

"It's all very sad."
 
Memo to myself and everyone for the future.

The Hennessy is a brutal race. Not for those attempting to come back from a long-term injury.
 
I was talking to the brother on the phone last night about the race. We both think this year's race is exceptionally strong form considering:

The well fancied horses that couldn't make any sort of impact;
The fact that Rocky Creek is clearly held in very high regard*;
The way they were rather strung out at the end on good going - it was more like the find of distances you expect in soft ground.

I hope to get around to evaluating the race in detail myself later today and will post my musings to see if there's broad agreement or disagreement about the form. I haven't got the Weekender yet but I suspect I'll take a more positive view of the race than the official handicapper.


*A fact I chose not to take too much notice of as I felt he could run well enough to win an average renewal but that it wouldn't be good enough for this race. Although I'd mentioned the ORs being lower than in recent years the flip side of that was that it left more scope for being further ahed of ORs than usual, and a single-figure price in those circumstances is no use to me.
 
Last edited:
I see I'm in broad agreement with RPRs on the race but my gut tells me I might end up raising the figures as the form unfolds, in much the same way with Galway Blaze all those years ago.

I've rated Rocky Creek marginally better than the average winner. It puts Theatre Guide roughly where I'd had him going into the race but the fact that Highland Lodge and Merry King - also very well handicapped - were nine lengths and more away, with the supposed 'job horse' Our Father (who looked trained to the minute and was backed accordingly) behind them, ahead of RSA winner and fifth Lord Windermere and Terminal, makes me want to push the figures up all the more.

I'm tempted to say Highland Lodge has run his race. He was on a curve and his mark using the above approach puts his run 6lbs off his second to Standing Ovation. That tempts me to raise the ratings by that amount.

For the time being, though, I have Triolo D'Alene on 162+p (OR156 / RPR 164) but I've put a '+' above the ratings column to remind me to consider the race more positively in the coming months. If Rocky Creek (164) is a worthy heir to Kauto Star's box then the marks could easily go up another 10lbs.

We shall see.
 
you have to factor in that HL used up a lot of energy leading that field a little to hard..i would expect HL to have finished well back..the fact he finished 4th shows he has more to come off that mark when racing evenly
 
Rocky Creek was beaten off a mark of 141, DO. How you can rate him better than an average winner is beyond me.

If the form stands-up in open company, I will be amazed.
 
i'm not really thinking it was a top renewal Grass..but just because he is rated 141 doesn't mean a lot a this stage..he might be a 155+ horse in reality

I just think it was a pretty tough handicap that lacks a really top horse
 
He'll have bettered his mark of 141, EC1 - no doubt.........but he'd be 150 max on my reading off the form, which would put him several lbs below what even an average winner would have run to.

It looked a poor renewal beforehand, and it doesn't look a geat deal better in hindsight. A handful might progress further, but none of this lot will make an impact in a G1 chase, imo - because they're too far behind a clutch of really top-end horses at this kind of trip.
 
Last edited:
I beg your pardon. Rocky Creek ran off 151 which puts a different complection on things.

Has RC run to 160? I have my doubts, but it's not inconceivable that he's run to 155, if you're prepared to accept that TD'A has improved a chunk for the trip. Again, improbable but not impossible.

I still think it's a moderate race relative to previous runnings (I wouldn't argue much with the revised OR, to be honest), and I still don't think they'll make an impact at the very top, but it's true that the main protagonists perhaps have a little less to find, than I originally thought. :cool:
 
EC1 said:
you have to factor in that HL used up a lot of energy leading that field a little to hard..i would expect HL to have finished well back..the fact he finished 4th shows he has more to come off that mark when racing evenly
Click to expand...

This is what I'd like to investigate more and is what's holding me back from rating the race through him. The overall time wasn't anything special but if they'd gone too fast we'd have seen the hold-up horses doing better. Could HL have failed to last the final quarter-mile through lack of stamina?
 
EC1 said:
i'm not really thinking it was a top renewal Grass..but just because he is rated 141 doesn't mean a lot a this stage..he might be a 155+ horse in reality

I just think it was a pretty tough handicap that lacks a really top horse
Click to expand...

I said beforehand that the ratings were some way lower than the last few renewals. On the face of it it makes it a lower quality race but the flip side is that it makes it more likely that the ones that end up being most competitive on the day are the ones most under-rated. I said as much beforehand and I'm tempted to argue I was right. I think the first three were just really well in, more so than average winners, hence the extended distances from a really competitive field.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I see I'm in broad agreement with RPRs on the race but my gut tells me I might end up raising the figures as the form unfolds, in much the same way with Galway Blaze all those years ago.
Click to expand...

For those of you too young to remember, Galway Blaze won off something like 78 (when it was the 0-100 scale, the equivalent of 153 on the current one) and went up to something like 88. Nobody thought it was a G1 performance, just a good handicap.

By the time the beaten horses came out and ran a few times the form had been franked over and over so much that they kept pushing up the winner's rating up - without him running - until it hit 100.

I have that gut feeling about Saturday's race.
 
marble said:
What I've determined from reading this thread, is that the market leaders will all comprehensively run to rough official ratings of 148 tomorrow
Click to expand...

I'd be tempted to argue the above was right too. :)

Okay, so Rocky Creek will score higher, but what was the mean OR for the top five you mentioned in the end, DO?

My comment beforehand was only tongue in cheek of course, i just felt they were much of a muchness really. Too early to judge the form.
 
Last edited:
The first 5:

162
164
157
149
143
Average 155, plus whatever more than that I end up rating the form. The obvious conclusion is that only the top two have any realistic hope of going on to contend Grade 1 but they'll still have to find a stone. I suppose the fact that Geraghty tried to get NH to aim the winner at the National underlines that we're not looking at a Gold Cup winner here.

In my head, though, I'm rating the form 6lbs higher until it's obvious I'm wrong.

As for the first 5 market leaders, that's a different matter. It would probably bear out your thoughts, marble, but I was assuming you were expecting them to fill the five places?
 
Nah I was advocating backing something at a bigger price as it happens, DO. I went for Same Difference in the end who on the turn for home, I was sure was going to get in the mix, but he couldn't carry it through. I thought bar one mistake he jumped well though, and given his trainers record in the national, I'll be interested to see if he goes there. Watch the hennessy again and you'll see what I mean, ran a great race for 3 miles, might actually get dropped in the handicap too.
 
HL needs soft or heavy ground to run to his best, a view supported by the trainer.

If any of the first five win a grade 1 I'll be surprised.
 
Once again the Hennessy form was franked yesterday when Cloudy Too won the Rowland Meyrick with another also-ran, Cape Tribulation, in third.

Theatre Guide was an excellent second to Monbeg Dude (16 lengths clear of the third).
Houblon Des Obeaux won a decent race last week at Ascot.
Loch Ba was a fair second to Night Alliance the other day.
Hadrian's Approach and Super Duty fought out the finish of a decent graduation race at Newbury.

So Katenko is the only one to have disappointed and that was at Aintree.

Sh1t hot form and fantastic that so many appear to be recovering quickly from it.
 
Back
Top